Packers 17, Bills 27 (Packers Cover +11.5, Under 47.5)

Pregame: The spread implies that this game won’t be close, as the Bills are 11.5 point favorites. The Packers’ lack of weapons have hindered their ability to win games all year, and now they face their toughest challenge to date. Aaron Rodgers will have to be nearly perfect, and Aaron Jones will have to have a huge game for them to have a chance at winning outright. The most likely scenario is a backdoor cover from the Packers, but you should never rule out Aaron Rodgers.

Postgame: This game wasn’t the offensive juggernaut that many thought it would be. Josh Allen was efficient, while Aaron Rodgers was not. The Packers lack of receivers really hurt them in this game, but Aaron Jones showed out. Moving forward, I would look for the Packers to use him more, as he’s been the only reliable weapon thus far. The clock is ticking on the Packers season in what could be Aaron Rodgers’ final games in Green Bay. If they want to make a playoff push, they need to start winning now.

Packers

QB

Pregame: Aaron Rodgers: Most fantasy managers will see Rodgers against the Bills DST and want to bench him, but I think this could be a favorable matchup. Although the Bills allow the 3rd least amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, they score many points. The Packers will surely be chasing points in this game, leading to Rodgers having to throw a ton. The Bills are 11.5-point favorites, which leaves a lot of room for garbage time points and a potential backdoor cover. Rodgers hasn’t been efficient, but he’s taken care of the ball and limited turnovers. The yards will likely be there for Rodgers, it’s just about how many touchdowns he can get. With the touchdown upside he possesses, he profiles as a boom-or-bust quarterback with top 5 potential this week.

Postgame: Rodgers completed 19/30 passes for 203 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. He added 11 rushing yards on the ground, good enough for 15.76 fantasy points in 4 points per passing touchdown leagues. Rodgers was pressured all night, and he looked more uncomfortable than he has in his entire career. Rodgers’ receivers aren’t getting open at all, and he’s clearly getting frustrated with them. It’s never safe to bet against Aaron Rodgers, but as the weeks go on, it looks more and more like he may be nearing the end of his career. He is strictly matchup-dependent moving forward this season. 

RB

Pregame: Aaron Jones is coming off his worst rushing performance and best receiving performance of the year. The Bills allow the 5th least amount of fantasy points to oppose running backs, but after what Jones showed in the passing game last week, it seems very hard to bench him. His receiving production is likely to regress, but so is his rushing performance. Jones is a solid RB2 this week. AJ Dillon, on the other hand, possesses very limited upside. Dillon has seen his production dip drastically since the beginning of this year, as his offensive snap percentage dipped to 30% last week. The Packers don’t trust him for some reason, as his touches have been scarce. Dillon has no touchdown upside, as he’s rarely used in the red zone, so he should be sat in all leagues this week.

Postgame: Despite not scoring a touchdown, this was one of Aaron Jones’ most promising weeks this season. Jones rushed the ball 20 times for 143 yards and caught four passes for 14. When you combine Jones’ rushing production this week with his receiving production last week, you find a complete back that can get it done in all aspects of the game. Jones is Rodgers’ best playmaker, and the Packers’will continue finding ways to get him the ball 20-plus times a game. AJ Dillon has to be one of the most disappointing running backs in fantasy this year. He saw 10 carries for 54 yards and added one catch for nine yards. The Packers offense lacks the upside that it once had, making Dillon’s touches much less high-profile. This is not an offense that can sustain two viable fantasy running backs, and Jones is miles ahead of Dillon, which is made clear by his sub-50% snap shares on the year. Dillon needs to be benched until further notice. 

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WR

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