Week 5 SNF Fantasy Football Preview : NE vs BUF

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  • By Nathan Hernandez

    Last Updated on October 5, 2025 8:25 am by Jon Mosales | Published: October 4, 2025

    SNF – New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

    Point spread: NE +8.5 | BUF -8.5

    Moneyline: NE +340 | BUF -430

    Total: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5

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    Overview:

    The Patriots and Bills meet for an AFC East showdown on SNF, as reigning MVP Josh Allen takes on the up-and-coming Drake Maye. The Bills enter this game 4-0 after winning each of their last three games by at least 10 points, but the Patriots might their toughest matchup since Week 1. The Patriots have a gritty run defense and a revamped offense under new HC Mike Vrabel, and they were probably a couple turnovers shy from mauling the Steelers in Week 3 and riding a three-game win streak into this contest. This game also marks the return of Stefon Diggs to Buffalo for the first time since being traded to the Texans back in 2024. Diggs is coming off of his first 100-yard performance in nearly two years, as Week 4’s 101-yard outing was his best since he had 10-for-100 back with Buffalo on October 15th, 2023. There are no major offensive injuries to watch coming into this one, but the Bills are down LB Dorian Williams (knee) who was filling in for Matt Milano (pec), who is questionable for the Bills alongside DT Ed Oliver (ankle). For New England, DT Milton Williams (ankle) is questionable, but he didn’t seem concerned about missing this week. However, if Williams does have to miss time, this New England run defense would be much, much more vulnerable.

    Quarterbacks:

    This is one of the most intriguing quarterback matchups of the week, as Josh Allen has been dominating the fantasy streets again as the overall QB1 on the season, though Drake Maye trails not far behind as the QB4 on the year. Both teams have been great through the air to this point of the season, finishing top 5 in EPA/Pass, but the Bills have, of course, been dominant on the ground, and part of that is because of what Josh Allen brings to this Buffalo offense with his legs. Drake Maye has at least eight total touchdowns across his last three games, and has flexed his ability to scramble more to start this season, with two of those scores coming on the ground. Both of these quarterbacks have been smash picks this season, and both should be great plays against one another. If the Patriots can hold onto the football, this game should be extremely close as teams trade blows and the score runs up between them.

    Running Backs:

    Sunday Night Football features two polar opposites when it comes to these fantasy backfields. James Cook is a clear RB1 by every definition in what has been the best running game in football through the first month of the season. Cook should be able to eat in this game if Patriots DL Milton Williams is limited or even winds up inactive. Still, he has been involved in the passsing game and could get it done through the air if nothing is there up the middle for Buffalo. A high Vegas point total means well for the favored-team’s RB1. Meanwhile, New England has employed a backfield committee of three RBs, all flawed in their own ways. The room is headlined by rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson and the incumbent starter Rhamondre Stevenson, while Antonio Gibson flashed as a returner early in the season and has mixed in more out of the backfield after Stevenson’s fumble issue resurfaced, though he put one on the dirt himself in that opportunity. With bye weeks popping up, Henderson is a flex play and Stevenson is less-so in the same tier. Gibson is outside of fantasy appeal at this time. The matchup is fine for the Patriots RBs and the team’s actually be in top-five in run block win rate so far in 2025, however, they’re bottom-5 in EPA/Run.

    Wide Receivers: 


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    October 4, 2025, 11:01 pm