Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Cleveland Browns (2-1) DraftKings Lines

Ravens (+124) @ Browns (-148): O/U 40.5
Ravens +3 (-115), Browns -3 (-105)

Writer’s Record:
Bet: 0-0
Lean: 0-0

We’ve got a nice little AFC North battle during the early slate of games this coming Sunday. QB Deshaun Watson looks to keep the good times rolling for the Browns, while Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and company look to bounce back after an ugly 19-22 OT loss to the Indianapolis Colts last week. Both teams are in the top 5 in rushing yards across the league. Meanwhile, the Browns have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards as a defense. The Ravens are ranked eighth. It’s going to be a battle of wills in this matchup.

Main Storylines to Watch

Is Deshaun Watson back? With the Texans, he was electric. Watson was cruising in the fast lane to stardom until he missed most of the past two years. He struggled when he returned late in the year last season and didn’t do much to inspire confidence in the first two weeks of the current campaign. Then they played a bottom-five pass defense in the Titans last week and he put up 289 yards and two touchdowns. The Ravens’ pass defense is pretty average, so they are beatable. It’s just a matter of execution.

How good is Jerome Ford? The unfortunate loss of fellow running back Nick Chubb provided Ford with the opportunity of a lifetime. In his first game as the starter this year, he delivered two total touchdowns. They helped bolster his fantasy day, as he only had 18 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards on two catches. As noted above, the Ravens pose another tough test for the second-year pro. We’ll see if Ford is up to the task once again.

How will the Ravens attack the Browns defense? The Browns’ defense has been shut down so far this season both in the passing game and the running game. Lamar Jackson is plenty capable of doing both and has the weapons to make plays in the air. Using a rotation of running backs, along with the threat that Jackson poses to take off himself, it’ll be interesting to the plan of attack and who they will rely on most.

Baltimore Ravens

QB

Lamar Jackson: Jackson is so dangerous in part due to his rushing ability, and that’s why we love him in fantasy. The floor a mobile QB provides feels so important sometimes, especially in 4-point pass TD leagues, because they’ll usually get a couple of extra rushing TDs. Jackson broke out on the ground last week, taking fourteen carries for 101 yards and two scores. The investment in WR this offseason shows a commitment to continue to develop the passing game in Baltimore beyond Mark Andrews, making Jackson that much more potent. There’s no reason to bench him; if he’s playing, you’re starting him.

RB

Gus Edwards & Justice Hill: This is not fun. While the offense is great, neither one of these players feels good to put in your lineup. First, Justice Hill (toe/foot) may or may not play after logging a limited practice on Thursday, previously missing Wednesday’s practice entirely. While averaging a healthy 5.0 yards per carry, Edwards is only seeing about ten carries a game. You’re essentially hoping he lands in the end zone. Oh, and he hasn’t even registered a target this year. Neither one of these guys should be in your lineup unless you’ve been a victim of some early-season injury luck.

WR

Zay Flowers & Rashod Bateman: So far this year, Flowers has seized the opportunity to be the WR1 on this team. He’s averaging seven receptions per game on roughly eight targets per game. Flowers has begun his career as a solid flex option. With the tough matchup against the stingiest pass defense in football, it’s probably a good idea to leave him on your bench if you’ve got better options.  At the very least, you’ll need to temper expectations. Bateman, on the other hand, continues to struggle to put up fantasy numbers. With three targets in each of the first three games, there’s no reason to insert him into your lineup or your roster in general.

TE

Mark Andrews: This is the real center of the Ravens passing attack. He’s had a bit of a slow start to the season after missing game one, but we don’t expect that to be an ongoing trend. He’s got the talent, a history of performing at an elite level, and years of chemistry with his QB. Andrews always has the ability to dominate a game. Don’t overthink it or try and get cute because of the matchup. Start Mark Andrews.

Cleveland Browns

QB

Deshaun Watson: As discussed above, Watson got it going last week. He’s actually improved his passing yards in each of the first three games. The problem, for fantasy, is that his rushing yards have decreased in each of the first three games also. This week, Watson is better suited as a QB2 in superflex leagues. While you could find worse options in 1-QB leagues, you can also probably find a better option.

RB

Jerome Ford & Kareem Hunt: An early season waiver wire gift, Ford has been good in his limited opportunity as the lead back this season. Hunt was added to provide depth as someone who knows the system from his time in Cleveland the past several seasons. At this point in his career, he’s a relative nonfactor in fantasy unless the coaching staff shows they are going to use him consistently. Ford can be started as an RB2 and should see a bulk of the work out of the backfield.

WR

Amari Cooper & Elijah Moore: Cooper just keeps on proving he’s a really good football player. The clear alpha in the passing game, he provides Watson with a player he can trust to get open and catch the ball. He’s a great route runner, which makes it that much easier for him to rack up yards and catches. The team continues to try and work in Moore, but it just hasn’t translated into a lot of success on the field. He’s earning legitimate targets and even getting some carries, but he can’t be trusted in your lineup right now. On the other hand, you’re firing up Amari Cooper with confidence as a WR2.

TE

David Njoku: When drafting Njoku, you thought you were getting a pretty solid tight end that you could start weekly. That has not been the case at all so far. It’s been a struggle for managers to put him in their lineups to begin the year. As of now, he’s a touchdown-dependent tight end. You probably have to start him, but the tough matchup would have us looking at the waiver wire if there’s a droppable player at the end of your bench.

Betting Insight

PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.

Division games are always tougher to predict. I’m taking the under in what should be a tough game. This feels like it’s going to be a grind-it-out game that’ll end sometime like 17-13. When thinking about the spread, it’s hard to gauge who has the advantage here. Going with my gut, I trust Jackson more than Watson so I’ll lean toward Ravens +3, and would even consider a sneaky Ravens ML wager if you’re feeling frisky.

Lean: Ravens +3 (-115) 1.15u to win 1u (DK)
BET: Under 40.5 (-112) 1.12u to win 1u (DK)