Week 1 TNF Fantasy Football Preview : DAL vs. PHI

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  • By Jon Mosales

    Last Updated on September 4, 2025 1:02 pm by Jon Mosales | Published: September 4, 2025

    TNF – Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

    Point spread: Dallas +7 | Philadelphia -7

    Moneyline: Dallas +240 | Philadelphia -298

    Total: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5

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    Overview:

    This is a great opening game between two division rivals and the defending Super Bowl Champion vs. “America’s Team”.  Historically, the defending champ storms out of the gates in Week 1 and this should be no exception.  The Eagles enter the season on a 10-game home winning streak and annihilated the Cowboys by a score of 41-7 when the teams last met in Philadelphia in December of last season,  For fantasy purposes, it shapes up as a perfect game to get everyone in.  Although the first game of the season can sometimes be a slog, the DAL defense is so broken after trading Michah Parsons, it seems impossible that the Eagles don’t put up 30+ and probably get closer to 40 points.  What we know is PHI is going to the run the ball vs. a terrible run defense that was 30th in yards-per-attempts and 32 in rushing TDs allowed.  Expect PHI to move the ball at will and put up points in bunches and that should force to DAL to lean on the strength on thier team, passing the ball.  Dak Prescott is healthy, slimmer and gets to finally use his new explosive WR weapon in George Pickens.  The PHI vaunted secondary which was a nightmare for opposing QBs last season ( league-low 174.2 passing yards per game last year) had a makeover in the offseason, losing Darius Slay is gone, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Avonte Maddox, and Isaiah Rodgers.  It should still be potent, but not against this DAL passing attack, there should be plenty of open seams especially if DAL is down early and forced to let it fly.  This is the kind of game where Saquon Barkley might soak up all the fantasy points on PHI, but you still need to start Jalen, Hurts, AJ Brown and Devonta Smith.

    Quarterbacks:

    Dak Prescott is in the one of the best spots to put up crazy spots as long as there is no injury hangover or learning curve with his new weapon.  I don’t expect DAL to run the ball effectively or often, so Dak should be locked and loaded for 40+ attempts.  There is no ceiling and if he can stay with PHI or light up in garbage time, 300 yards seems like the floor and 400+ is on the table.   I absolutely love this spot despite thinking DAL will lose my double digits.  Don’t worry if Dak starts slow and isn’t lighting it up in the first half, the big plays will come.  Jalen Hurts is in a great spot due the matchup, but will the offense pivot to a more pass-friendly attack this season.  They threw the least amount of passes in the NFL and with Barkley running the ball, the math checks out.  Dallas surrendered a league-high 553 rushing yards and a whopping 10 touchdowns to opposing QBs last year, so Hurts should be able to patch together a solid fantasy night even if he’s sub-200 passing yards.  If DAL can keep it close, everything is on the table, but Week 1 remains unpredictable.

    Running Backs:

    Every RB ranking for the week is going to have  Saquon Barkley as number-one and I want argue differently here.  The Cowboys ranked 31st in the NFL in defensive rush EPA last year, finished 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (137.1), and they gave up 167 yards to Barkley in Week 16.  The best RB going against the essentially the worst rushing defense is a recipe for a monster season-debut.  All you can do if you are facing him is pray he doesn’t truly go off for something like 200 all purpose yards and three TDs.  Anything short of that can be considered a small win.  The DAL situation is a much more convoluted as Javonte Williams is the RB1 on the depth chart, followed by Miles Sanders and the rookie Jaydon Blue.  You can’t play Williams in this matchup in almost any format as PHI was top-10 in most defensive rushing metrics and I expect Dallas to be trailing from the opening quarter.  Williams could get cheap points in check-downs, but you should almost assuredly have better options at the onset of the season.  Blue is the only RB I would even roster on DAL and while I wouldn’t play him tonight, there is a chance he is in a position to succeed sooner rather than later.

     

    Wide Receivers: 

    This one gets more interesting as on paper as there are four elite WRs who could wreck any game.  AJ Brown has the best matchup on paper, but he’s been banged up all summer and who knows how many targets he will receive.  Bank on at least one explosive play and a possible big game if DAL can keep it within one or two scores late.   He’s clearly a must-start and has a chance to abuse a DAL secondary that gave up the 24th most passing TDs last season.  Smith is a nice spot especially if Brown is more banged up than previously thought or if the secondary focuses all their attention on Brown.  It’s always been a two-tiered WR room in PHI and don’t expect that to change without an injury.  As great as Brown and Smith are, the edge goes to Lamb and Pickens even if the floor is lower, but oh man the ceiling.  While Lamb only caught six passes for  21 yards in his only appearance against the Eagles last season, he’s matchup proof barring some sort of crazy double-team bracket and while this isn’t the best matchup for him paper, the situation is elite.  Pickens should help stretch the field for Lamb and it’s possible he see an insane amount of targets if DAL wants to keep this one close.  You never know which will break first, the quality of the matchup or the quantity of the target share.  I could see Lamb getting 15+ targets and maybe only taking in just over half, but he should be close to 100 yards.  Pickens is a true mystery box and this isn’t really the time to blindly back him.  I would start him over Smith due to expected volume, but there’s just as a good chance he no-shows as he does haul in five grabs for 100+ yards.  I love Pickens this season, but not enough to start him without thinking as he burned everyone last season.  Week 1 is prone to overreactions, but we should be able to tell a ton about the nature of the DAL offense after this one.  

     

    Tight Ends:

    This is the battle of tight ends you didn’t really want or need.  DAL has Jake Ferguson, who finished as the TE25 which was only slightly better than Dallas Goedert’s TE27 finish in total Fantasy Points.  Ferguson has a shot vs. PHI to potentially find the end zone, but targets will be few and far between after Lamb and Pickens eat.  Same goes for Goedert, who was the TE10 in FPPG, but has trouble staying on the field or demanding targets.  Goedert had less than five targets in all but three games last season.  Hopefully you aren’t forced to start either, but I’d lean Goedert by a nose.

     


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    September 4, 2025, 12:57 pm