2025 Week 10 TNF Fantasy Football Preview : LV @ DEN

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  • By Jon Mosales

    Last Updated on November 6, 2025 10:33 am by Jon Mosales | Published: November 6, 2025

    TNF – Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

    Point spread: VG +7.5 | DEN -7.5

    Moneyline: VG +425 | DEN -600

    Total: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5

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    Overview:

    After several weeks of division TNF battles, we finally have our first semi-stinker.  The good news is that Brock Bowers is back and we get to see if he’s truly matchup proof, going against a defense that is a top-seven defense at limiting fantasy points to all positions.  The Raiders finally traded Jakobi Meyers, so Tre Tucker is the default WR1, but in reality it’s Bowers. Either way it’s an elite defense vs. an inept offense as Vegas is 29th or worse in EPA/play, EPA/run and EPA/pass.  They don’t do anything well, but they are top-10 in pass-rate over expectation and 6th in TE usage.   The Raiders are also a middling defense, but are vulnerable to pass and have given up WRs points a top-five rate.  The Broncos are top-five in WR usage, so there is a massive spot there for either Courtland Sutton or Troy Franklin to go off with Marvin Mims out.  This game has a weird vibe and dogs have been covering on TNF and I hate betting a big spread with a low total, but is Bowers superman because that’s what it will take for Vegas to win this game.

    Quarterbacks:

    Bo Nix is still a mystery this season, but his running has been pretty reliable with at least 20 rushing yards in five of the last six games.  The Vegas defense is middle of the pack allowing QB fantasy points, but if you can move the ball, you can score as they rank 32nd in opponent red zone touchdown conversion percentage. Nix has three straight top-15 finishes, but he also a QB1, a QB6 and a QB14, so there are a wide range of outcomes here, but the low total indicates he’s closer to QB13 than QB1 this week. The Raiders have been solid vs. the run, so if DEN leans on the pass game early, they could have success and keep the ball in Nix’s hands because once they start running with JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey, it’s a wrap for Nix.  I like the start here due how poor the Vegas secondary is and would confident he gets close to 220 passing yards, 25 rushing yards and two TDs.  Geno Smith is completely different story as he finally looked great last week with four TDs.  He was the QB6 last week, but had been outside the top-20 in each of the last five games, so the floor doesn’t exist and the ceiling is tied to Brock Bowers.  On the road in a short week vs. the 3rd best defense allowing QB fantasy points and without their “star” WR, everything in the world screams bench Smith for almost anybody this week.  Don’t drop him though as DAL is up next week and as much as this week is a stayaway, next week is a smash.

    • Running Backs:

    Ashton Jeanty isn’t a bust, but he’s not a smash either.  He was RB6 last week in a great spot, but now the worst running team in EPA/play is going vs. a top-seven rush defense and I just struggle to find a path where Jeanty has a good game.  Jeanty has been under 4.0 YPC in each of the last three games, so he’s not going to get it done on the ground, so it will have to be as a receiver where he was great last week, catching five of five for 47 yards and a score.  I wouldn’t bench him this week, but I wouldn’t feel great starting him and if I had another RB in a better spot, I’d have to think about it.   JK Dobbins hasn’t scored in four straight games, which is concerning because RJ Harvey has five TDs in the last three games.  This is somewhat of a fluke, but a league-wide trend as well and Harvey is really excelling in the passing game.  If Vegas was a little worse vs. the run and Dobbins was more involved in the passing game, I would like Dobbins over Jeanty, but that’s not the case this week.  I would start both and flex Harvey because he might finish with the points fantasy points of the three.  Harvey has b2b top-10 finishes and while’s 100% TD dependent, he’s proven adept at finding the end zone and it’s not a total fluke.

     

    Wide Receivers: 


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    November 6, 2025, 10:33 am