It’s that time of year again and what we’re going to do here is break down winners and losers from the trade deadline (fantasy perspective of course).

It’s a long, fast-paced day and you can also watch our trade deadline show right here, where I’ll be tapping away and also trying to keep up on camera. Come laugh at me!

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***Updated as of 2:05 p.m PT

Atlanta Hawks

Incoming: Clint Capela, Dewayne Dedmon, Skal Labissiere, Nene, Derrick Walton Jr., 2 Second Round Picks

Outgoing: Jabari Parker, Alex Len, Evan Turner

Notes: Capela has as soft a landing as you’re going to find going from Houston’s superstar-driven offense to another one setup like that in Atlanta, with Trae Young probably being a better facilitator from Capela’s point of view.  Capela has seen his shot attempts dwindle as his explosiveness has eroded a tiny bit, but much of that has also been Russell Westbrook soaking up usage and touches next to James Harden.

Capela has refocused that energy on the defensive side and also in his rebounding, and in the latter category it’s possible we see a dip playing next to John Collins, but also because the lineups won’t be as ridiculously small as they’ve been in Houston. I’d be watching for a bit of a value swap as he gets more of a look on offense and possibly a corresponding dip on defense because the games don’t matter as much, not to mention the effort he’ll expend in the screen and roll game.  He’s breaking even in terms of fantasy value.

Dedmon isn’t going to get much run and though the folks in Sacramento were shocked by his performance, they shouldn’t have been.  If he can get back to the corners where the shots are easier and simply be a spot-up shooter, rather than the screen setter and facilitator the Kings asked him to be, that might help his confidence. Altogether he’ll probably shoot better.  But what you saw from him on the defensive side, which was usually bad, that’s not going to improve and he’s not going to push Capela for minutes.  He’s not a fantasy option. Nene is Nene.  We’re not moving on Walton without seeing him produce, either. Skal needs a lot to go his way to be on the radar in fantasy leagues.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Incoming: Andre Drummond

Outgoing: Brandon Knight, John Henson, Second Round Pick

Notes: I think we’re going to see another shoe drop here with Tristan Thompson heading out, because you can’t conceivably play both these guys.  I’d expect Drummond to continue to be a beast in Cleveland, though there should be a question if they’ll use him as much offensively as Detroit did.  I’d only fade his value by a round or two tops and this should help him stay engaged, since he was looking pretty disinterested before the deadline.  As for Kevin Love, his value has always been tied to staying on the floor and I don’t think Drummond will impact him too much, nor will this impact the fantasy situation elsewhere.  He wants the ball a bit more than Tristan Thompson, but he’ll have to get the ball from the guards in order to change that equation all that much.  I think the guards pretty much hold their previous value.  Larry Nance has always been a top-100ish player in 20 mpg and he’ll probably head back that direction, as the big man situation is crowded now even if Thompson goes.

Denver Nuggets

Incoming: Jordan McRae, Noah Vonleh, Keita Bates-Diop, Gerald Green, Rockets 2020 first-round pick

Outgoing: Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, Jarred Vanderbilt

Notes: Everybody joining up this already deep squad is in for a world of hurt in fantasy leagues. McRae can be dropped as a stash in Washington’s somewhat fantasy friendly situation.

Detroit Pistons

Incoming: Brandon Knight, John Henson, Second Round Pick

Outgoing: Andre Drummond

Notes: Drummond’s exodus is hilarious for the lack of return that Drummond brought, which was to be expected since the Pistons probably didn’t want him opting into the last year of his deal, and they had no leverage in general. I’ve been stashing Christian Wood pretty much all year so this is amazing news but there is still another shoe that could possibly drop, but if not then Wood and Thon Maker are holding down the center spot.  John Henson could get some run but he’s highly unlikely to be able to handle more than 18 mpg.  Maker is terrible but has more length and Henson can get in the way but all three of them are going to get snapped in half every night as the tank is on.

But damn, Wood is going to be so good the rest of the year. Mid-round value is probably an 80% chance. This also opens up a ton of offense for guys like Reggie Jackson, Bruce Brown and Derrick Rose, who are all must-own players, and I’ll add Svi Mykhailiuk to that much as a 75% chance for solid late-round value.  Sekou Doumbouya is going to get a ton of minutes but he’s also going to be inconsistent and Dwane Casey is going to have no problem minimizing his role if he gets aloof again with his play (this has already happened).  Tony Snell might gain relevance in deeper leagues as a 3-point specialist.

Golden State Warriors

Incoming: Three Second Round Picks

Outgoing: D’Angelo Russell, Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson III, Omari Spellman, Jacob Evans

Notes: The Warriors opened things up for Damion Lee big-time and there have been times in which he looked like he was going to go big like Alec Burks had been going, but the speed bumps with D’Angelo Russell and Draymond Green’s on-again, off-again status and the various G-League moves have made this Warriors squad unstable from a fantasy perspective.  A lot of that has been the roster math working against them and that’s what this deal helps them address, as well as cap space, and the hope will be that the post-deadline scenarios we’ve all been craving come to fruition.

What that would look like is Russell getting traded, Draymond calling it an early season and Steph and Klay not playing at all this year.  That would result in Marquese Chriss getting unfettered run, Omari Spellman getting a solid 25 mpg (and producing) every night and a player like Lee moving to a late-round floor and a mid-round finish. In this scenario Spellman and Chriss have those same metrics, though Spellman has an oddball factor and a propensity to disappear.  But moving out two heavy minute guys that have been producing at solid levels is a great start toward this scenario, and one that just boosts the situation in addition to the aforementioned stars exiting stage left.

If you’re looking for a lock the answer is Chriss. If you want a tiny bit more upside Lee has the chance to be relied upon heavily, but his consistency puts him behind Chriss and if not for the other bigs that could steal time from Chriss, the per-minute value for Chriss would make him the outright better value in every regard.  To be clear, I like Chriss over Lee because the additional upside doesn’t translate over Chriss’ overall value proposition. Spellman is a flier hold at this point because he just hasn’t been able to produce, but he crosses the standard league threshold at 24 mpg. If he gets it together and goes over that mark he can cross the top-100 threshold, which in many leagues is a massive gain.

Also, if Russell does get moved take a fast look at Ky Bowman as he showed the ability to run the team, has good percentages and never really got let loose.  Since we’re going around the horn Eric Paschall has a good shot at late-round value but has practically no upside because of his stat set in standard leagues. In points leagues he beats all these guys.

Update: Bowman is worth a speculative add though it’s not a rock solid add because he needs to actually deliver and he’s been inconsistent this season, but I’d probably take that risk over a lot of guys we’re looking at here.  But you need to be concerned about percentages and those concerns can start to wane in Roto leagues toward the end of the year, and in head-to-head leagues low-usage percentage guys are often overlooked, depending on your build.  Either way, if he can get 13 points, three boards and five assists that plays in a lot of formats.

Chriss’ value was already in the must-own range but the news just continues to get better for him.  He’s now a considerable amount ahead of Lee and he’s currently the winner of the deadline now that Spellman is cleared out.

As for Wiggins, the Warriors are taking on a ton of bad money here and they’re going to want to see that investment through, and playing for a good franchise I think we’re going to see more of early season Wiggins than the late-mid rounder he has slid back towards.  It will probably take a bit for him to get comfy and there is risk that some of the Big 3 play, but I think we have to continue evaluating this as if they will not.  Regardless, I think this is a good move for Wiggins’ value and in accordance, Lee’s value takes a hit, as does Paschall — Wiggins’ shot attempts figure to be pretty high.

Houston Rockets

Incoming: Robert Covington, Bruno Caboclo, Warriors’ 2024 Second Round Pick, Grizzlies second-round pick

Outgoing: Clint Capela, Gerald Green, 2020 first-round pick

Notes: There is another shoe to drop for the Rockets as they need a better big man than Jordan Bell to hang their hat on, or at least another option that can work with him in tandem as they attempt to go small, which is a fine differentiation strategy if you know you don’t have a chance to win straight up — which they don’t.  They get a tantalizing asset in Covington as it gives them a chance to run Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Eric Gordon, Covington and P.J. Tucker at the same time, which is a flawed but terrifying look on a few levels.

As for Covington, he has been all over the board for the Wolves this season but his fantasy game has been mostly fine and it should continue along normally in his new digs.  Shots might be harder to come by but quality looks should increase.  For Covington, it’s always about his confidence and that’s a journey that can’t really be predicted, but if he’s winning more and given more license to get after it defensively those are decidedly good things to get him going.  The arrow isn’t pointing up but this move is not prohibitive to his value, which could also improve if the defensive equation proves to have a multiplier effect in Houston.

Bell is a flier pick and as flier picks go he’s a somewhat nice one as a former per-minute stud, but he has so much baggage and bad film that the risk in adding him is undeniable.  There’s also the chance the Rockets swing a deal that complicates his fantasy value even further.  But if he can just be average and not get exposed defensively too much, he has the chance to be a destitute man’s Clint Capela every so often in the screen and roll game, with some weakside blocks and steals, and in there is a chance he could climb up to a low-end mid-round value.  And he could also be benched for letting his third straight back-cut by him, so buyer beware.

Update: Bell is now moving on to Memphis in exchange for Bruno Caboclo and that’s a really weird deal but Bell’s value is nil in Memphis. As for Caboclo, he has been a good rebounder for Memphis and gotten enough minutes to where he should theoretically be able to handle 20 mpg for the Rockets. He can’t bang with bigs so he’s not their solution for the big man issue in general, but he has a decent enough shot to get those 20 mpg that he’s a flier pick with top 80-90 upside if everything goes well, which is higher than a few players you’re looking at during this deadline.  He’s probably a 50/50 shot to be a standard league value that hangs on through the bad days and he’ll have a 2-3 round advantage in 9-cat leagues.

Los Angeles Clippers

Incoming: Marcus Morris, Isaiah Thomas

Outgoing: Moe Harkless, Jerome Robinson

Notes: Morris and Thomas will both have no fantasy value in Clipper land.

Memphis Grizzlies

Incoming: Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, Jordan Bell, Gorgui Dieng, Rockets second-round pick

Outgoing: Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill, Bruno Caboclo

Notes: The question that I have is whether they try to play Waiters and Johnson because if they don’t play them more than, say, 25 mpg as a pair then this won’t disrupt value for players like De’Anthony Melton, who I’ve thought is a must-own player for over a month now because he’s getting you late-round value in less than 20 mpg. Sending out Crowder and Hill is big for clearing minutes that could be diverted toward playing small, but again we need to see Waiters and Johnson get minimized in order to feel like Melton can jump up to 25 mpg without an injury in the backcourt.

I’m not running to grab somebody like Kyle Anderson if we’re concerned about Winslow’s health, and I don’t think the Grizzlies make this move without having some idea that Winslow has a reasonable timetable to get back to normalcy.  As for Winslow, he has needed full run of the yard in Miami to have late-round value in the past and I don’t see the Grizzlies diverting touches from the core to give him that run of the yard.  As mentioned in the Rockets’ update, Bell will have no value in Memphis.

Miami Heat

Incoming: Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill

Outgoing: Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, James Johnson

Notes: The Heat return to their roots by having a bit too many players and this puts the values of Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Derrick Jones and Goran Dragic into question. Dragic has been on a nice run but he needs to be good to maintain mid-round value and goth Iguodala and Crowder are good enough to crowd the rotation enough to push him off that expectation.  Jones hasn’t gotten over the hump and Nunn has held on, but he won’t hold on anymore.  I’d take a chance on fading Dragic for just about anybody in the add group of this trade deadline and Robinson won’t have enough oxygen to produce, so if you’ve been holding on there feel free to move on.

As for the incoming guys, I don’t think Iguodala has it in him to produce and I don’t think they want to play him much more than 25 mpg.  That’s where Crowder will sit, too, and that’s not enough for him, either.  Hill might not play if he remains with the team.

Update: Dieng coming in and Johnson going out will help the Melton equation and it’s unclear what they’re doing with all this big man depth. It makes Kyle Anderson a tiny bit more intriguing but he needs Winslow to be hurt to have any real value.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Incoming: D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, Omari Spellman, James Johnson, Jacob Evans, Evan Turner, Jarred Vanderbilt, Nets’ 2020 First Round Pick (Top-14 Protected)

Outgoing: Andrew Wiggins, Robert Covington, Shabazz Napier, Gorgui Dieng, Noah Vonleh, Keita Bates-Diop, 2021 first-round pick (top-3 protected), 2022 second-round pick

Notes: The Wolves are rearranging deck chairs as Karl-Anthony Towns looks about as disinterested and pissed off as I’ve ever seen him.  He mailed in a game against the Kings the other day and that’s pretty much been the story since he returned from what was a very mysterious knee injury.  To what degree he wants (and can or can’t get) D’Angelo Russell on the squad is a bit over my pay grade, but what the Wolves have done is gut a bunch of their roster and bring in a pair of players from Denver in Beasley and Hernangomez that needed more minutes than they were getting.

For Beasley this writing has been on the wall for a while as he had a solid year last season, got a new agent in Rich Paul and got geared down by the Nuggets, who probably knew they should keep their trade asset healthy on a deep squad.  I’d expect the Wolves to want to showcase both he and Hernangomez, but especially Beasley, who should look a lot like he was in Denver last season with a hair of upside beyond that.  It’s late-round value territory so give him a look if his proficient categories can help you.

Hernangomez has had a few games that made you think he could be something in fantasy leagues down the road but it’s never ever come together for him and no matter how optimistic we want to be about how he’ll do in Minny, he has to prove himself before getting an add in reasonably sized leagues.

Jarrett Culver gets a tiny bump for the chance he gets asked to do more for this squad, but his value was always going to be tied up into the light bulb turning on. Still, having both Jeff Teague and Napier get sent packing is about as good of news as he could have gotten this season.

Jordan McLaughlin went for 15 points and seven assists on Wednesday with the team somewhat emptied out and he could sneak into some low-end value here, but he won’t be on the ball as much as last night’s action showed and if Culver can keep it on track he’ll have a hard time staying above the cut line.

Update: The D’Angelo Russell deal is huge for the Wolves. It’s huge for KAT getting his mind right and it’s huge for DAR to not be playing for such an obscenely tanking team, and before you remind me about the Wolves they made this play as a foundational play and they’ll want to start working things out this season.  Even with Wiggins leaving, DAR sucks the air out of the room for fringe guys like Beasley, Hernangomez, Culver and McLaughlin, who fall beneath the standard league threshold for me, though Beasley has a 50/50 shot at late-round value and then Culver is a great percentages punt play, regardless of what’s going on around him.  DAR’s impact on the ball is just that bad for everybody else around him.  Spellman probably is an easy drop though you kind of want to see if they use him at power forward in a 20 mpg role, but that’s not enough to hang on in 200 player formats.

Update II: Dieng heading out keeps me moderately (not really) interested in holding on to Spellman because he can get 15 mpg behind KAT and maybe creep over into some power forward minutes, as James Johnson is the only real power forward option and he’s both new and not great these days.  As for Johnson, theoretically they could turn to him but whether he could get anywhere near enough touches or produce enough to have standard league value is a pretty big question.  I think he’s probably a 20% shot at standard league value, but 20 mpg seems like a pretty good bet.

New York Knicks

Incoming: Moe Harkless, Issuf Sanon, Clippers’ 2020 first-round pick

Outgoing: Marcus Morris

Notes: Harkless might slide into some late-round value if everything goes right but folks can wait and see on that front. Morris leaving helps open up the offense and maybe for Mitchell Robinson, who can’t get any lob game action in because of the iso play from Morris and Julius Randle.  Randle will get max usage the rest of the way but I’m not sure there is any one beneficiary that can step in and have consistency.  Reggie Bullock might not have it in him after such a bad injury, and then it could be folks like inconsistent Damyean Dotson or Allonzo Trier trying to fill in that offense.  Kevin Knox was picked by the old administration and isn’t that good.  But Robinson has been frustrating owners with the lack of poppy lines and this could be a nice change to support a buy low play.

Orlando Magic

Incoming: James Ennis

Outgoing: Second Round Pick

Notes: If you’re in a 30 team league you might give Ennis a look because the Magic are light at his position.

Philadelphia Sixers

Incoming: Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson III, Second round pick

Outgoing: James Ennis, Three second-round picks

Notes: Both Burks and Robinson (and especially Burks) have enjoyed their time in Golden State and now they’re going to be irrelevant in standard leagues, but for Philly this is a great deal for them to address their depth issues.  They simply need serviceable players on a top-heavy squad.

Portland Trail Blazers

Incoming: Cash

Outgoing: Skal Labissiere

Notes: No value changes here. The Blazers are trying to improve their cap situation and Skal hasn’t developed the way a lot of folks hoped.

Sacramento Kings

Incoming: Jabari Parker, Alex Len

Outgoing: Dewayne Dedmon

Notes: The Kings could easily screw this up, keep Nemanja Bjelica and decide they want to chase old Parker highlights from Duke into a massive time-share that starts to creep into Richaun Holmes’ minutes and value.  However, Len has to prove he can stay on the floor (and then displace others) and Harry Giles’ grip on minutes and a role has always been tenuous.  Holmes’ play should be good enough to warrant starter’s minutes but it’s the Kings so we’ll be watching closely.  As for Parker, he has a late-round ceiling and Len is not an option.

Washington Wizards

Incoming: Shabazz Napier, Jerome Robinson

Outgoing: Jordan McRae, Isaiah Thomas

Notes: Napier becomes one of the top pickups of the trade deadline as the Wizards are giving up a promising young player in McRae for a guy who has shown good production and improvement at all of his past stops.  They need somebody with his skill level to keep them from devolving into truly terrible basketball, and on such an uptempo team playing games in the 130s this is a great pickup. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t have top-100 value the rest of the way.  Whether he can climb beyond the top-75 range is a question for his efficiency as I’m projecting him to get about 30 mpg the rest of the way, with 25 mpg while Bradley Beal is playing big minutes and Ish Smith is still cranking around at 25 mpg.  But I expect both of those guys to fade as the year goes on and the real upside here is if Beal calls it an early season.  Robinson is a name to watch in case he catches lightning in a bottle, but he shouldn’t be on rosters outside of massive 30-deep formats.