MLB Trade Advice: Buy Low and Sell High Candidates

  • Two weeks into the fantasy season and I see people all over social media panicking about underperforming players while others are deeming players who are off to nice starts to the season as untouchables. A big part of executing during the season is knowing when to capitalize on opportunities in trades where players’ value or stats are skewed due to sample size.

    Players to Buy Low

    I am going to highlight the three players who you should try to acquire in a trade for a lower price than their value should be, taking into account different factors and trusting established talent.

    Zac Gallen SP Diamondbacks

    This one seems like a no-brainer to me. Gallen is definitely off to a rocky start in 2023 posting a 1-1 record, 4.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP through 3 starts. Not the best for sure, but we have a long way to go this year and Gallen held close to elite pitcher status on draft day. Taking a look under the hood he has some encouraging expected numbers that show he’s been a lot better than the numbers actually show. He has a 2.57 xERA which is a full 2-point differential to his true ERA right off the bat showing he has been a bit unlucky.

    Gallen also has a .205 xBA allowed to go with his 29.2 K% which is in the 76th percentile in the league and is actually better than his mark in 2022. Gallen also ranks 11th in all of baseball in Stuff rating and 5th in the league in command rating according to the pitching bot on Fangraphs, so the arsenal is elite. All three of his starts came against two top-five offenses in the Dodgers and Brewers and the 15th offense in the Padres (according to Fangraphs) which are all tough starts to open up the season with. I would look to acquire Gallen from an owner panicked about his much-inflated ERA!

    Bobby Witt Jr. SS/3B Royals

    Bobby Witt Jr. might be a tougher one than the others to pry out of an owner’s hands in a deal, but I’m sure some might be panicking with the rough start he’s had so far with a .186/2 HR/5 RBI/ 2 SB line. The main selling point I have here is just trusting the talent he possesses. Witt went for 20 homers and 30 stolen bases last year in his rookie season which is just bonkers. The other reason you might be able to acquire him is owners that drafted him spent high capital on him during the draft and might want to trade while they still can get good value for him because his peripherals haven’t really been great either sitting in the 12th percentile which is just horrible.

    The two extremely encouraging stats I can gather while evaluating his profile are his much-improved patience at the plate, and posting improved percentages in chase rate, walk percentage, and whiff percentage. Improving plate discipline in those facets for such a young player is a really big deal and I am looking for Witt to go on a tear soon balancing out his numbers due to his elite tools. See if owners are panicked about him.

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