The Wolves entered the year full of expectations after a hard fought playoff series and a major acquisition. Instead they stagnated with yet another first round playoff exit, being left with more questions than answers. The Wolves are now in the same spot they ended up last year, but with less options moving forward.

How’d It Go?

The Wolves entered the 2022-2023 NBA season with high hopes. With the ascent of Anthony Edwards, continued offensive excellence of Karl-Anthony Towns, and acquisition of defensive center stud Rudy Gobert, the Wolves expected to propel themselves to the Western Conference’s elite. However, a multitude of factors led to a worse season than previous with a 42-40 record and a noncompetitive early playoff exit. With the loss of key rotation players from last season, the Wolves struggled to adjust to their new personnel, not helped by the fact that Towns was limited to 29 games due to a long-lasting right calf strain.  A trade deadline shuffling of guards (shipping out D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley) aimed to bring stability and stricter defined roles to the struggling team, but it ultimately was not enough to change the Wolves’ fortunes for this season.

It remains unclear if the Wolves will look to make additional major changes to the roster heading into the offseason. Given the lack of cap space and future draft picks, there would be very few avenues in which roster shake-ups could actually occur. There is the potential of a Karl-Anthony Towns trade, but with him being out for a majority of the season it feels too soon to not see what this group could do if healthy. Based on that, expect the Wolves to at least give this iteration of the roster one more year. Depth pieces may be different, but the core should remain the same.

Two key spots to pay attention to are the backup guard and big man spots. We have seen Mike Conley be load managed the past few seasons, but the Wolves do not have a high- caliber second option behind him today to set the table on offense. Similarly, while Towns and Gobert will hold down the two starting frontcourt spots, Naz Reiz being a FA leaves the third big men spot open. Look for the Wolves to target these spots this offseason – the backup guard spot could be a nice spot start throughout the upcoming season.

Coaching

Entering his third year, Wolves head coach Chris Finch had expectations not just to make the playoffs, but to solidify the team’s standing as a threat to be reckoned with in the Western Conference. With all the changes to their rotation however, the Wolves were a team that never seemed to gel and click together on court. The early injury to Karl-Anthony Towns could be to blame, but even in the early going with KAT healthy the Wolves seemed less than the sum of their parts. Despite three offensively focused players in Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and D’Angelo Russell (later Mike Conley), the offense still was ranked 23rd in the league according to CleaningTheGlass. A good portion of the Wolves’ offensive failures can be attributed to their high turnover rate. Heralded as an offensive coach, Finch struggled to instill smart offensive processes into his team with the offense looking disjointed and without hierarchy. The midseason swap of Conley in for Russell helped alleviate some of these issues, but Finch never really found anything that made the offense fluid. In the upcoming year, Finch will need to find solutions to make the offense more cohesive and effective or else he may be on the hot seat.

The defensive side of the ball was a different story. The Wolves ranked 8th in the league according to CleaningTheGlass, fueled by Gobert’s rim protection and the full-fledged emergence of Jaden McDaniels. For all the talk of Gobert and the trade coming nowhere close to expectations, Finch still relied on the rim deterrence of Gobert as the focal point of their defense. Finch also challenged McDaniels and Edwards with greater defensive responsibilities, and both players responded well in their respective roles. Lastly, the insertion of Kyle Anderson into the starting lineup over other options when Towns went down was a shrewd choice to ensure the defensive end of the court was solid. When you have defensive talents like Gobert, McDaniels, and Edwards, you just need to give them the latitude and basic scheme to have an above-average defense, and that is exactly what Finch did this past year.

The Players

Anthony Edwards

SG, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: 25/20 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 6/22 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 25/40 (8/9-cat)

While Edwards may not have taken “The Leap”, the third-year player did show steady improvement across the board enroute to his first All-Star appearance. Edwards’ usage increased while his efficiency stayed about the same, which is an extremely positive development for the young star guard. He also displayed improved playmaking skills and lead-guard skills, something we expect to continue as Ant becomes the leader of this team. Yet another positive for Edwards was his availability – he was second in the NBA in overall minutes, helping power him to top-10 overall value in 8-cat despite top-25 value on a per-game basis. Going forward, Edwards still can improve his passing repertoire and free throw shooting (75.6% on the year) to become a more well-rounded threat and truly become a single-handed offensive force in the league. With continued modest improvements in his game and an ever-growing role, expect Edwards to return at least top-20 value in 8-cat on a per-game basis next season with upside for more.

Karl-Anthony Towns

PF, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: 12/9 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 213/229 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 28/39 (8/9-cat)

Sadly, Karl-Anthony Towns suffered a Grade 3 right calf strain that held him out for a majority of the season. When he was on the court, he struggled adjusting to his new frontcourt mate in Gobert and changing defensive responsibilities. Playing further from the rim had a negative impact on both ends, with Towns’ efficiency dipping across the board while his blocks dropped from 1.1 to 0.6. Towns still provided top-30 value when he played, but it is a bit of a far cry from his late first-round ADP. Given the context of injury, it may be harsh to judge KAT just on his numbers. However, current expectations are that his role and team context stays the same. KAT may end up as more of a second-round player than the typical first-round player we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.

Rudy Gobert

C, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: 27/28 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 69/68 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 64/58 (8/9-cat)

We know what we should expect from Rudy Gobert at this point in his career – elite FG%, rebounds, and blocks. This past year however, he was just merely great in those three categories. Gobert went from 1st in FG%, 1st in rebounds, and 3rd in blocks the prior season to 3rd in FG%, 4th in rebounds, and 11th in blocks this season. With Gobert’s limited stat set, even these seemingly small decreases were what led him to only produce top-75 total value in 9-cat leagues. He still provided excellent rim protection as he normally does, but in fantasy we care more about the block numbers which started to dry up slightly this past year. As Gobert continues to age, it’s hard to see his core stats rebounding to previous levels, and we should expect Gobert to fall in a similar range next year.

Kyle Anderson

SF, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: 141/139 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 82/77 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 88/82 (8/9-cat)

I have always been a huge Kyle Anderson fan due to him knowing his strengths and playing to them. This year, Anderson was afforded a larger opportunity and shined in it. Anderson was signed using the mid-level exception last offseason to provide valuable backup forward minutes for a rotation that suddenly lacked capable rotation players. With Towns’ injury though, he was thrust into a major role in the starting line-up and proved invaluable steady reliable minutes for the Wolves. Anderson set a career-high in assists (4.9 per game) along with his usual contributions across the box score in steals, blocks, and FG%, leading to top-80 value over the season. Even better, Anderson returned top-60 value and was solidly a must-own player during this stretch as a starter. Kyle Anderson will most likely come off the bench next season but can still be a sneaky contributor of assists, steals, and blocks even with bench minutes. Whether he starts or not, Anderson’s ability to be a true connector on both ends of the floor makes him a key part of the team. Few players have the skills to paper over this roster’s weak spots like Anderson.

Mike Conley

PG, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: 120/130 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 94/92 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 107/99 (8/9-cat)

Would you believe me if I told you Mike Conley averaged the most assists of his career in his age 35 season with 6.7 assists per game? Both on the Jazz and the Wolves, Conley provided a trustworthy hand at point guard to set his teammates up for success and managed to play 67 games, propelling him to a top-100 finish on the year. Conley is a valuable source of assists later in the draft while additionally chipping in some threes and steals. No one will be wowed by a Conley pick, but he still can give the classic sneaky old vet value from the later rounds that can help round out a fantasy roster. The Wolves should be looking to keep Conley on his non-guaranteed contract to continue to provide help in the backcourt.

Jaden McDaniels

PF, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: 140/133 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 77/73 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 123/116 (8/9-cat)

Jaden McDaniels showed tremendous growth in his third season, blossoming into an All-Defensive candidate at forward. McDaniels was just outside of the “1-1-1” stat line, with 1.4 threes, 0.9 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game while fulfilling the wing stopper role excellently. Over the full course of the season, McDaniels did not have the greatest offensive responsibility, scoring 12.1 points per game with a 15.8% usage rate that ranked 147th overall. However, in a four-game stretch late in the season with Anthony Edwards out, McDaniels stepped up to average 21.5 points with a 64.0 TS% and 22.6% usage rate. Small sample size caveat aside, McDaniels displayed improved dribbling skills and self-shot creation. McDaniels will be a popular breakout target next year as he looks to further round out his game and improve his offensive impact to match his defensive ability.

Naz Reid

C, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 156/155 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 165/163 (8/9-cat)

With the injury to Towns, Naz Reid was given a consistent opportunity and role in the rotation in which he put up respectable fantasy lines. In the period without Towns, Reid returned top-100 value, averaging 11.9 points on 53.5 FG%, 1.1 threes, and 5.5 boards, 0.7 steals, and 0.9 blocks in just 19.7 minutes per game. Reid has been a valuable big man depth piece for the Wolves, but he is an upcoming FA this offseason. While Reid is not a star, he still is a capable rotation player which teams are always on the lookout for in free agency. Track his landing spot closely – if given a similar opportunity as the first big off the bench in a new location, we could see Reid build upon his top-150 season.

Taurean Prince

SF, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 257/272 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 250/272 (8/9-cat)

Taurean Prince found himself in the typical role he has been for most of his career – the hopeful 3&D wing who isn’t quite good enough at either of those aspects to be given a larger role. He still produced modest contributions across the board but nothing substantial enough to be worth a roster spot in all but the deepest leagues. Prince has one year left on a $7.65M non-guaranteed contract – we’d expect the Wolves to keep him at that price and continue playing him in a similar depth role.

Jaylen Nowell

SG, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 234/238 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 267/280 (8/9-cat)

The Wolves were hopeful Jaylen Nowell could build off his prior season and further develop his scoring skills with potentially some playmaking as well. Alas, Nowell struggled with increased responsibility, scoring 10.8 points per game on 44.8 FG% (28.9% from deep) while not improving as a playmaker with only 2.0 assists per game. Nowell had some promising scoring lines sprinkled throughout the year but overall was unreliable and inconsistent. With his upcoming free agency, it’s unclear if the Wolves will look to re-sign the 23-year old guard or look to move in another direction after contract extensions stalled last offseason. It seems the Wolves will move on, leaving Nowell’s next team, playing time, and role murky.

Jordan McLaughlin

PG, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 315/314 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 306/302 (8/9-cat)

Jordan McLaughlin has shown he’s a capable enough passer and table setting point guard, but unfortunately that is all he really can do. He lacks any sort of on-ball juice both in creating space or self-scoring, which severely limits his overall game. Teams tended to sag off or completely ignore him beyond the 3-point arc, hampering whatever passing effectiveness he brought. McLaughlin still was able to contribute 3.4 assists per game in just 15.8 minutes, but was limited to 43 games due to a left calf injury mid-season. With only a $2.32M non-guaranteed contract, McLaughlin should be back on the Wolves as a reserve guard, but don’t expect much more than what we saw last year.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

SG, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 281/287 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 316/335 (8/9-cat)

It seems Nickeil Alexander-Walker may have been miscast as a bench scoring guard who could provide buckets in a pinch. In his earlier stops in New Orleans and Utah, both teams attempted to shoehorn Alexander-Walker into that sparkplug role off the bench, but it was evident NAW was not suited for that responsibility. Over his first three seasons, Alexander-Walker averaged an uninspiring 9.3 points per game on 38.7 FG% and 32.9% from deep. When he was traded at the deadline along with Conley to the Wolves, he appeared to be more of a throw-in rather than a significant piece. However, the Wolves put NAW into a point-of-attack defensive role and off-ball wing on offense, where he flashed signs of belonging in an NBA rotation. While this shift in role led to Alexander-Walker earning consistent minutes in a playoff rotation, it didn’t necessarily translate into fantasy success since NAW still only returned top-300 value with the Wolves. Alexander-Walker may have earned himself a new contract heading into restricted free agency, but it doesn’t appear this will lead NAW to develop into a valuable fantasy asset worth rostering except in deep dynasty leagues.

Austin Rivers

PG, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 323/312 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 369/352 (8/9-cat)

Austin Rivers signed a minimum contract with the Wolves to provide veteran leadership in a reserve role. While he began the season in the Wolves rotation, he slowly faded out from the line-up as the Wolves turned to other options. At this point in his career, Rivers should be resigned to the end of the bench on NBA rosters and should not be on anyone’s fantasy radar.

Josh Minott

PF, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 447/432 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 413/386 (8/9-cat)

When Josh Minott entered the 2022 NBA draft after only playing 14.6 minutes per game in college, it may have raised some eyebrows. Nevertheless, Minott became a popular deep-league stash due to his athleticism, solid NBA wing measurements, and potential all-around skill set that shined even in limited minutes. Minott only played in 15 NBA games this year, but his stat line in the G League spoke for itself – 20.6 points on 56.4% FG with 7.2 boards, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks. Even though it is just a G League sample, that is the sort of stat line that makes Minott stash worthy if he can play himself into the rotation at the NBA level. Next year will be too early to look at Minott in redraft leagues, but dynasty managers should keep a watchful eye on this promising young player.

Luka Garza

C, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 400/396 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 409/400 (8/9-cat)

Luka Garza is one of the many poster children for “great college player, not a NBA player”. While he was named the 2020-21 NCAA player of the year across many outlets before entering the 2021 NBA Draft, Garza was still never really seen as a serious NBA prospect. Garza can still score points and grab numerous boards in scarce minutes, but his defensive mobility is so lacking that it normally means his team will give up even more points the other way. Garza had some spot moments over the course of the season when big men in front of him were out but otherwise was missing in action from the rotation. One should only be looking at Garza in spot-start situations in very deep leagues.

Matt Ryan

SF, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 421/414 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 485/472 (8/9-cat)

Matt Ryan has shown some promise over the years as a sharpshooter, but unfortunately that is all he really provides on the court. He has bounced around the league and hasn’t found a permanent spot yet in his two year career. Ryan shouldn’t be rostered in any leagues.

Nathan Knight

PF, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 406/413 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 470/473 (8/9-cat)

Nathan Knight is an adequate reserve big man. While he has good length and decent size, he is prone to foul trouble and doesn’t always play as big as his 6’8”, 253 lbs frame would indicate. Knight can put up some stats, but he just isn’t a solid enough player to warrant a consistent spot in a rotation. Knight should only be on your radar if enough players in front of him get injured to afford him minutes.

Wendell Moore Jr.

SG, Minnesota Timberwolves

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 442/441 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 490/489 (8/9-cat)

Wendell Moore was a late first round draft pick by the Wolves in the 2022 NBA draft. He profiled as a “jack of all trades, master of none” smaller wing with not the greatest upside. He only played in 29 games this year for the Wolves, averaging 5.3 minutes per game and not flashing anything positive in his minutes. Given Moore was a recent first round pick, he should stick around on the roster but needs to drastically improve if he is to be a part of the Wolves’ future plans.

Fantasy Star

It can be no one other than Anthony Edwards. The third-year player upped his scoring from 21.3 to 24.6 points per game while adding extra playmaking with his 4.4 assists per game. He also locked in more defensively with an elite 1.6 steals per game, tied for fourth in the league on a per-game basis. Ant showed his superstar upside in the playoff series loss against the Nuggets, averaging 31.6 points on solid efficiency, 5.2 assists, 5.0 boards, and 1.8 steals. While Edwards can still struggle from the line and needs to fully flesh out his passing skills, he still is one of the most promising young guards in the league due to his offensive scoring output, outrageous physical tools, and his defensive building blocks. Edwards will look to build upon his success and emerge as one of the elite scoring guards in the league.

Fantasy Letdown

I am not a fan of using injuries for fantasy letdowns, so we will not be discussing Karl-Anthony Towns here (although one could point to his per-game 9-cat value of 39 as a letdown). Instead, the answer has to be Rudy Gobert. When drafting Gobert, you expect him to be a category winner in blocks while being huge value adds in rebounds and FG%. While he did his part in the latter two categories, his blocks fell off from 2.1 to 1.4 per game. While that is still towards the high end of the league, it is unclear whether the drop-off was a result of adjusting to a new team and system or a player starting to age. Nevertheless, managers next year will have to temper expectations for Gobert.

One to Watch

Jaden McDaniels is one of the more exciting young wings in the league. Tasked with a greater defensive responsibility, McDaniels excelled in both isolation defense and being an overall pest in disrupting the opposing offenses with the rare combo of 0.9 steals per game and 1.0 blocks per game. What is underrated is how much untapped potential for growth there is in his offensive game. As noted earlier, when Anthony Edwards was out for four games later in the season, McDaniels stepped up to average 21.5 points with 64.0 TS% and displayed more confidence in attacking off the dribble and finishing well  at the rim. The Wolves will be forced to look internally for players to help them raise their ceiling, and they shouldn’t need to look further than Jaden McDaniels.

One Burning Question

After moving every form of draft picks, prospects, and rotation players in last year’s offseason, the question is “what other avenues remain for the Wolves to shake-up their roster and attempt to correct the course?”. The Wolves lack their tradeable future firsts except for swaps and do not have realistic avenues to create usable cap space. The one somewhat unspoken move could occur in the form of trading Karl-Anthony Towns, with the talented big man being one year away from his massive 4 year, $225M supermax extension going into effect. Given Towns’ tough fit on the defensive end, the Wolves could opt to reshape their roster and move on from him a year early to help recoup some of the assets traded away in the disastrous Gobert deal. With the Wolves’ season being viewed as a disappointment, the organization may look to attempt to quickly rectify their mistake by making  a different sort of splashy move. If the Wolves opt against this route, they will most likely look to add quality players via a mid-level exception signing and re-signing some of their own players, hoping that their struggles could be more attributed to Towns’ injury and fresh faces in the locker room.