The Super Flex QB Punt Madness Strategy

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  • By Jon Mosales

    Last Updated on July 9, 2025 3:06 pm by Jon Mosales | Published: July 9, 2025

    I might sound like a broken record at this point, but this might be my favorite article I’ve ever written.  Super Flex leagues have become the new rage and I admit I love them because they properly value the QB position akin to the real NFL.  Nearly every article you will ever read will state you have to go QB early and most will recommend taking two QBs in your first three picks.  Let’s be honest, that sounds smart and it is and it’s what I have almost always done.   But what if we didn’t?  If everyone in your league is aiming to scoop up QBs early and often, that means the traditional superstar RBs/WRs are going to be going for a discount and that means you could stack every other position and worry about QB later.  Right off the bat, that sounds ludicrous, but ever since my man Brian Shade attempted a version of this, I’ve always wondered if this is the way.  This could be called the zero QB strategy and is reminiscent of forgoing elite RBs in 1QB leagues and stacking them up late.

    The thinking is that you could have your roster set by round 7/8 and then you scoop up every ugly starting QB and or elite backup because every season we see stud fantasy QBs sprout up from nowhere.  Let’s assume a 12-man snake draft with 3WR.  I’m using a mock draft I was reading done by the Fantasy Life studs.  Just for kicks, we will say we had the 8th pick.  We could have Bijan Robinson, Nico Collins, Trey McBride, Chase Brown, Rashee Rice, Rome Odunze and George Pickens as our starting players and now simply need to find some competent QBs and add some depth.   So that’s seven rounds in and now we have scrape the barrel for QB production, but first let’s look at some of the QBs who surprised us last season.

    Just for Week 1, there were top-12 performances from Derek Carr, Anthony Richardson, Geno Smith, Matt Stafford and Sam Darnold.  All those players are still available at this point in the draft and while Carr has retired, the larger point remains.

    Let’s move to Week 2, maybe Week 1 was just an outlier for random QB play.

    Week 2 had top-14 performances by Carr, Darnold, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers.

    That’s two weeks in a row where half the best performances were done QBs not drafted early.  We may be on to something.

    Week 3 had more of the same as we had three great showings from three QBs who would have barely drafted.

    Week 3 had top-14 from Malik Willis, Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones

    Let’s try one more week and then examine the fantasy playoffs to see if it’s still a viable strategy.

    Week 4 had Justin Fields as the QB1,  Jordan Love/Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff as QBs 2-4. Andy Dalton again cracked the top-12.

    Now, no one is saying the superstar QBs don’t still have plenty of value because Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels were top-three in two of the first three weeks, but even Daniels was going late as a rookie.  The fact is that there are QBs who don’t get get drafted or if they do are late-rounders who are producing startable lines.  Even if you don’t come out of your draft with two QBs you feel confident starting, you can pick up at least one on the wire early in the season.

    The key is that you can strike lightning late at QB.  It happens every year.  Last year Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, Sam Darnold and Geno Smith posted top-14 seasons and were easily available after the 7th round of a Super Flex draft.

    That’s enough looking backward, let’s now look forward.  There isn’t a QB taken in the 8/9 rounds of this mock, so that means we could easily scoop up the best available and start to mold the final form of this team.  JJ McCarthy goes in 10th round and he would be a perfect QB to start on this team.  MIN manufactures QB1s like Nebraska produces o-lineman.  They have had a top-12 fantasy QB in each of the last four years by FPPG.  Let’s say we grab McCarthy in the 8th round, about 20 picks before he goes naturally, not ideal, but worth it considering we are filling a need.  In the 9th round, we have the pick of the litter, let’s grab Trevor Lawrence and take a flier on Cam Ward in the 10th.  We have two RBs, four WRs, one TE and three QBs, but QB is position of weakness still and we also want to add a RB.  In the 11th round, there is a run on QBs and it’s starting to thin out, but we got in at the perfect time.  We may as well grab one more before the starting QBs dry up so we let’s say we get lucky and add Michael Penix Jr.  We now have four QBs on up-and-coming offenses and I bet that we can play the schedule to get top-12 production in most weeks.

    This is just a outline of how the strategy can work, but there are plenty of solid options late in drafts and in another article we will look at some deep league sleepers, but for now let’s examine some QBs who could be better than they appear.

    Michael Penix Jr. : Penix went 120th in this mock draft and while he is still unproven, ATL was a top-15 offense in scoring and passes-per-game and was top-10 at RB/WR in FPPG.  This is an offense with a great o-line that can move the ball in a variety of ways and is dying to explode.  They haven’t had competent QB in several seasons and while Cousins was elite for a portion of the season, he went four games without a passing TD before he was benched.  Penix doesn’t have massive upside due to his lack of running, but he could easily average 240 passing yards plus two TDs a a game which is 16 FPPG, which would make him the QB19.  If he is just part of the puzzle and you start him at home in favorable matchups, that might be closer to his floor than his ceiling.  Penix led FBS in passing yardage in each of his final two college seasons at Washington.  It’s worth nothing that ATL averaged 32 PPG in three games Penix started.  This offense could be optimized to finish as a top-five unit.

    J.J McCarthy : MIN QBs have finished 2024-QB11 (Darnold), 2023-QB7(8 games of Cousins)/3 top-14 finishes with Joshua Dobbs, 2022-QB13 (Cousins), 2021-QB12 (Cousins), 2020-QB11 (Cousins).  None of the QBs are exemplary and it can be said that the MIN system, supported by elite coaching, a great o-line and most importantly Justin Jefferson is QB-proof and the floor might be 4000 yards and 25 TDs.  McCarthy missed his rookie season and all we have is some preseason tape, (which he looked amazing), but the MIN receiving weapons are just about the best in all of football.  The offense isn’t just built to pass, it thrives on it, ranking eighth in neutral passing rate and third in pass rate over expectation last year.  This is about buying into the system more than the QB.

    Trevor Lawrence:  The best finish Lawrence has had was the QB8 and that was without Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter.  He now has two potential franchise-changing WRs at his disposal and the QB whisperer Liam Cohen as the HC.  Cohen was able to resurrect Baker Mayfield’s career and guide him to b2b top-10 finishes.  Now, Lawrence has more talent than Mayfield and similar weapons.  With Lawrence going as the 110th pick or QB19 in traditional drafts, the upside speaks for itself.  The lack of running game only helps Lawrence and the fact that the Jags boast one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL, there should be plenty of shootouts in their future.

    Cam Ward:  This is just a bet on talent as Ward has all the tools and should run enough to be considered a dual-threat QB in the same way that Baker Mayfield is.  He’s going as the QB27 right now and that seems crazy considering how much of the learning curve has been eliminated from rookie QBs.  Just last season we had two rookies finish in the top-10 and Drake Maye and Penix Jr. could have massive sophomore leaps and could finish inside the top-15.  Not all these guys are going to make it and some could get hurt or simply flame out, but it’s a small bet that could win big and we spread them out over our late-round picks after the foundation of the team is firmly established.

    Just for fun let’s look at how the   QB production went in the fantasy playoffs because that’s really where the rubber meets the road and if you have Kyler Murray as the QB26 with only 10.2 FPs, you are going to be facing an uphill battle towards winning the week.  Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were the QB1 and QB3, no shocker there.  Guess who finished inside the top-14?  Mac Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Cooper Rush, Drake Maye, Mason Rudolph and Bo Nix.  Have these guys weren’t even drafted and you’re telling me you need to start your Super Flex draft going QB/QB.

    On to Week 16.  Bryce Young was the QB2 while Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold were all in top-10.  QB production can be fickle and a lot can go into one player have a spike week vs. a no-show, but that’s why we want multiple options and the flexibility to start a QB due to matchups and not because we have to.  Lamar Jackson was the QB12 and Josh Allen was the QB24, now that’s the tiniest sample ever, but the position can be volatile, especially at the end of the season.  Your team is going to have ups and down and might start 4/5 different QBs over the course of a season, but you also might hit waves where you have four viable starters and then you can trade someone you drafted in 11th rounds giving you top-8 production over a four week sample for a top-20 WR that someone took in the 5th round because they just lost one of their two elite QBs.

     

    July 9, 2025, 3:06 pm