Last season I went 412-405-23, which is a 50.4% win rate. Not my best work, but we were right more than we were wrong, and this season I’m leaning into some data analysis tools I’ve gained in the past few months as I’ve learned how to develop predictive models. We’re gonna make a killing. Won’t you come on this ride with me?

As I’m trying out a new system, I won’t have many thoughts on why these are good plays from a basketball perspective. It’s truly just a numbers game, and that’s how we should have been treating it all along. Here’s some things we know and can act on:

1. Every play when it’s offered at “full” odds is basically representing +100 odds on that play. In many cases, this is -115 to -125 on actual sportsbooks, giving us an edge in probability over implied odds.

2. We are going to flex the crap out of everything and use every promo.

Let’s dig in, shall we?

Last Time’s Results

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