After weeks of speculation, we finally have a race in the books and can start to digest some real numbers. The Bahrain Grand Prix was short on drama, but provided a lot of data to comb through and a good glimpse into the competitive order for 2023.

Let’s begin by looking back at our season preview to see how we did.

Best Bet: Max Verstappen

Max Verstappen was the odds on favorite to start the year and he did not disappoint in Bahrain. Verstappen captured pole on Saturday, beating out his teammate Sergio Perez by 0.138 seconds. On Sunday, Verstappen got a good launch off the line and never looked back. He cruised to victory, finishing more than 11 seconds ahead of second place and 38 seconds ahead of third, despite reportedly turning the engine down for the latter part of the race. The weekend’s performance for Verstappen was good for 35 fantasy points in all. Red Bull certainly look like world beaters to start the season, and Verstappen should remain the best bet to score points in fantasy going forward.

Best Value: Fernando Alonso

Fernando Alonso was by far the best value in Round 1, returning 39 fantasy points for only $8.3M, resulting in the highest points-per-million (PPM) of any driver on the grid at 4.7. Alonso qualified 5th and finished 3rd, racking up 6 overtakes while gaining 2 places. He was also voted Driver of the Day, which was good for an additional 10 points. His 39 total fantasy points led the field, and the fact that he only received a $0.2M raise for Round 2 means that he should continue to provide the best driver value when the lights go out at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix next weekend.

Good Value, Constructor: Aston Martin

Aston Martin was an excellent value in Round 1. At only $6.7M, they returned 52 fantasy points for the highest PPM of any constructor at 7.76. Lance Stroll was able to finish 6th after qualifying 8th, contributing 17 points to Aston Martin’s total. The Silverstone-based team garnered an additional 10 points for getting both drivers into Q3. It is clear from their performance at Bahrain that they are a legitimate top-3 team this year. They only received a $0.1M raise for Round 2, making them a terrific value when compared to their closest competitors: Mercedes ($25.1M) and Ferrari ($22.1M). Whether or not they can keep up in the development wars remains to be seen, but right now they are providing fantasy managers with incredible value and should be rostered wherever possible.

Bad Value, Constructor: McLaren

McLaren tallied the lowest number of points of any constructor at -10. This means that for every million spent on them, they returned -1.1 points, making them the worst value of any constructor on the grid. They are currently valued at $9.0M, just $0.1M less than in Round 1, and $2.2M more than Aston Martin. Both McLarens had major issues on Sunday, with Oscar Piastri retiring after just 13 laps, and Lando Norris needing to pit 6 times to make it through an entire race distance. The team from Woking promises a major upgrade at Baku, but until they get on top of their issues or until their value drops significantly, they should be avoided at all costs.

Sleeper: Pierre Gasly

Pierre Gasly’s weekend got off to a rough start, as he was unexpectedly knocked out in Q1 and qualified last. But he put together a terrific drive on Sunday, finishing in the points at 9th after gaining 11 positions, 7 of which came on overtakes. He garnered 20 fantasy points in all, giving him the 4th best PPM of any driver on the grid at 2.47. He only received a $0.1M raise for Round 2, meaning he remains an excellent sleeper candidate going forward. The only issue he may have to contend with is the reliability of his Alpine. The Enstone-based team has had a DNF due to reliability in almost 30% of races since the start of 2016, which means that one of Gasly or teammate Esteban Ocon is likely headed for a mechanical issue in these first few weeks of the season.

Bargain: Zhou Guanyu 

Zhou Guanyu was tabbed to be the best value under $5M and he delivered. Zhou totaled 15 fantasy points in Bahrain for a PPM of 3.06, second only to Fernando Alonso. Zhou was helped in no small part by nicking the fastest lap at the end of the race, which was good for 10 points. But his appearance in Q2 and his 8 overtakes on track show his potential to be a fantasy contributor throughout the year. The other driver under $5.0M who returned decent value in Round 1 was Logan Sargeant. Sargeant garnered 11 fantasy points in Bahrain, which was good for a PPM of 2.75, third best on the grid. Sargeant was much better than expected, gaining 4 positions on 7 overtakes. If he continues to perform and remains the cheapest driver on the grid at $4.0M, Sargeant could be a good value for the rest of the season.

Ranking the Drivers

If you look at the ranking of drivers solely based on total fantasy points, Alonso, Verstappen, and Perez lead the way, with Gasly, Lewis Hamilton, and Carlos Sainz rounding out the top-6.

But points alone don’t tell the whole story. You need to consider how much each of those points cost you. Here is how the 20 drivers on the grid rank by points-per-million:

When you look at the number of points each driver garnered for every million dollars he cost, Alonso still tops the charts, but is now followed behind by Zhou and Sargeant. Gasly retains his 4th place ranking, but Hamilton and Sainz both drop significantly due to their high costs. Even Verstappen and Perez drop off in value, since each of them costs north of $18M. Alex Albon, Lance Stroll, Valtteri Bottas, and even the Alpha Tauri drivers, Yuki Tsunoda and Nick de Vries, returned decent value in Bahrain.

One thing to note is that the bottom of the list remains relatively consistent. The lesson here is an obvious one – negative points hurt your overall value regardless of cost. Avoiding negative points is critical to success in F1 Fantasy. There’s no way to guarantee this, of course, but one way to mitigate your risk of negatives is to avoid teams with reliability issues. If you’re interested in who has been least reliable over the last 7 years, take a look at our pre-season article on reliability here.

Ranking the Constructors

When you look at the ranking of constructors based on total fantasy points, Red Bull, Aston Martin, and Mercedes top the chart. All three constructors saw both drivers not only in Q3, but also finish the race in the points.

But ranking the constructors by how much each team returned on your investment gives you a different order altogether.

The top-3 now consists of Aston Martin, Alfa Romeo, and Williams. Red Bull and Mercedes both drop down the list, due to their valuations of over $25M. Like with the drivers, the bottom of the list remains the same, with Alpine and McLaren delivering negative values.

So does this mean that you should run out a lineup of Alonso, Zhou, Sargeant, Albon, Aston Martin, and Alfa Romeo? No, definitely not. What it tells you is simply where good value is to be found, so that after you lock in your big and expensive point scorers (Verstappen, Red Bull, etc.), you’ll have a good idea of how to fill out the rest of your lineup.

In Bahrain, for example, Sainz and Hamilton garnered 38 points total, but cost $40.9M in all. If you had selected Gasly and Stroll instead, you would’ve spent only $15.6M for those two spots and would’ve banked 37 points. The loss of 1 point is certainly worth the $25.3M you would’ve saved, for that would’ve allowed you to go with someone like Perez at $18.0M over, say, Magnussen at $6.7M, which would’ve netted you 20 additional points.

In short, avoiding expensive drivers and constructors who don’t return enough points to justify their costs is how you vault to the top of your league. Avoiding negative points is how you stay out of the bottom, which brings us to Saudi Arabia.

Looking Ahead to Round 2

The Jeddah Corniche Circuit is a high-speed street track with close walls in the middle of the desert. Last year’s Saudi Arabian Grand Prix saw 6 DNF/Ss (Did Not Finish/Start), including 3 due to accidents, 1 due to overheating, and 1 due to a power unit failure. This may be a good week to use your No Negative Chip. When you activate your No Negative Chip, no negative points are applied to your team for the entire race week.

This could also be a good week to ride Sergio Perez. Perez is renowned for his good performances on street tracks in his time with Red Bull. Last year, Perez out-qualified Verstappen to take pole at Jeddah and finished in the top-5. Verstappen should not be faded, by any means – he did go on to win the race last year – but Perez does have an excellent chance to score meaningful fantasy points this week.

Esteban Ocon had a good result the last two years in Saudi Arabia, finishing 6th and 4th, respectively, and is probably due for a bounce-back week after his disaster in Bahrain. His teammate, Pierre Gasly, has also performed well in Jeddah, dragging his slow Alpha Tauri to a points finish in Saudi Arabia in both 2022 and 2021.

Charles Leclerc could be a bounce-back candidate as well. He was comfortably on the podium in Bahrain before a mechanical failure ended his race on the 40th lap. If Leclerc is forced to take a grid penalty due to issues before and during the race with his Energy Store, then he could be an excellent play in Saudi Arabia. When a car is out of place at the start, it presents a lot of opportunities for overtaking and positions gained. If Leclerc begins the race at the back of the grid and finishes near the front, he could bring a huge haul of points for your team and make up for the -11 points he scored in Bahrain.