With winter testing complete and the season ready to kick off this weekend in Bahrain, it’s time to create your fantasy teams for the 2023 Formula 1 season.

If you’re playing in Formula 1’s official F1 Fantasy league, you will have $100 million to spend on 5 drivers and 2 constructors for each of your teams. You can create up to 3 teams for each registration.

Here are the values of each driver to start the season:

And here are the values of each constructor to start the season:

Who’s the best bet? 

Max Verstappen had one of the most dominant years in F1 history in 2022, and said he “felt comfortable and could push instantly” in this year’s car. He is easily the surest bet on the grid, the clear #1 driver on the strongest team since the regulation changes went into effect. All of his closest rivals have major question marks hanging over their heads when it comes to performance, strategy, and even primacy in their teams. Verstappen is the clear favorite to be the fantasy MVP and $26.9M leaves plenty of money in the bank to spend on other quality drivers. In fact, if you start with Verstappen as your lead driver and add Red Bull as your first constructor, you will still have enough money ($45.9M) to get another top driver or constructor on your roster.

Who’s the best value?

Most of the buzz coming out of winter testing was about the performance of Aston Martin. In the capable hands of Fernando Alonso, the AMR23 looked quick, especially in race simulations. Most analysts believe Aston Martin will be the best of the midfield, with some predicting they will leapfrog Mercedes to be third fastest on the road. This makes Fernando Alonso an absolute steal at $8.3M. If you believe Aston Martin to be a top midfield team, edging out Alpine and McLaren this year, then you will be saving $2.9M selecting Alonso over Lando Norris and $1.1M taking Alonso over Esteban Ocon. If you believe Aston Martin to be a legitimate top-3 team, then Alonso is an incredible value, costing $15.4M less than Lewis Hamilton and $10.3M less than George Russell.

Does that mean that Aston Martin is a good value?

Aston Martin could be a good value at $6.7M, but they have major issues with their second seat. Lance Stroll injured himself in a bike accident prior to winter testing and may miss at least the first week of the season. Despite rumors of Sebastian Vettel returning, last year’s F2 Champion, Felipe Drugovich, will reportedly take Stroll’s seat in Bahrain if necessary. Either way, neither Stroll nor Drugovich is on the level of Alonso. We have yet to see what Drugovich can do with an F1 opportunity, but we have seen plenty of Stroll and he has not exactly impressed. In 6 years in F1, he has been out-qualified by his teammate every year, and has never finished higher than 11th in the Drivers’ Championship. Last year, he was the second slowest driver on the grid in total qualifying times, and was out-qualified by Vettel 13-7. That said, there appears to be real pace in the AMR23, and with the incredibly reliable Mercedes engine powering it, and one of the most determined drivers on the grid in the first seat, the combination of Stroll and Drugovich should be able to post enough good performances over the course of the year to make Aston Martin a decent value at $6.7M.

Are there any obvious bad values? 

One major headline coming out of winter testing concerned the performance of McLaren. They not only completed the fewest number of laps over the three days, due in part to a problem with their ‘wheelbrows,’ but also showed a real lack of pace. They have been open about their aerodynamic issues, and team principal Andrea Stella has said that the MCL60 “is still not where we would like it to be to be a top-four contender.” Some analysts have them ranked as low as 9th going into the season, ahead of only Williams. Yet they are currently valued at $9.1M, making them the 5th most expensive constructor on the grid and one of the worst values to start the season.

Are there any sleepers to target?

Pierre Gasly is an interesting name at $8.1M. He is $1.3M less expensive than his teammate, Esteban Ocon, and a case could be made that he will be the faster of the two Alpine drivers. Gasly set the fastest one-lap time for Alpine in winter testing, and had a total qualifying time in 2022 that was within 10 seconds of Ocon, despite being in the much slower Alpha Tauri. Alpine admittedly did not look great over the three days in Bahrain, but many believe they were running a lower engine mode, choosing to stick to their program rather than chasing lap time. They were the least reliable team on the grid last year, but they managed to finish 4th in the Constructors’ Championship nevertheless. If they are able to make even a modest improvement in their reliability, and if they truly were hiding pace in testing, then Gasly could be in for a breakout year.

Is there anyone to avoid at all costs?

It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Logan Sargeant is a key contributor to a fantasy team. Williams was one of the slowest cars in winter testing and struggled with reliability last year. Sargeant is in his first year and is the least decorated of the rookies entering F1. In fact, he is the only rookie on the grid not to win an F2 Drivers’ Championship. If you don’t have a lot of money left for the last spot on your roster, you’d be better off with Zhou Guanyu, who seems to have the most potential of any driver under $5.0M. The Alfa Romeo looked pretty good in winter testing and Zhou had some genuine highlights in his rookie season, including points on his debut and two appearances in Q3.

What strategy should I employ in constructing my team?

There are four major strategies you could use in selecting your team. Before we dive into each, remember there is a simple formula in F1: speed + reliability = points. Often, we get blinded by top speeds and lap times and forget the old adage that in order to finish first, first you have to finish. So whichever strategy you choose, don’t focus on who is fastest without also considering who is most reliable.

Spread Out Your Risk (lowest risk)

One strategy in choosing drivers and constructors this early in the season is to spread out your risk across many different teams. There are basically three different aerodynamic solutions on the grid right now, represented by the top three teams from last year: Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes. Then there are four different power units in use this year: Honda, Ferrari, Mercedes, and Renault. A lineup that represents all the various aerodynamic solutions and engine manufacturers would look something like this:

Max Verstappen $26.9M

George Russell $18.6M

Fernando Alonso $8.3M

Valtteri Bottas $7.8M

Alexander Albon $5.5M

Ferrari $22.1M

Alpine $10.1M

This lineup has representation from the consensus top-4 teams coming out of winter testing, and includes Alpine, who many believe are the most likely to challenge the top teams in 2023. It spreads out your risk of DNFs due to reliability across all four power units, and it features 4 of the top 5 point scorers in last year’s Drivers’ Championship.

Put All Your Eggs in One Basket (highest risk)

If you believe this is finally the Scuderia’s year, and that Ferrari’s 066/7 power unit will provide a giant leap in performance for both constructor and customer, then you may want to load up on Ferrari power with a lineup that looks something like this:

Charles Leclerc $21.2M

Carlos Sainz $17.2M

Sergio Perez $18.0M

Valtteri Bottas $7.8M

Kevin Magnussen $6.7M

Ferrari $22.1M

Alfa Romeo $6.2M

While this strategy could vault you to the top of your league if Ferrari gets off to a hot start, it could also leave you in such a deep hole if Ferrari struggles in the early part of the year that you’re unable to ever mount a comeback. The killer in any fantasy league is indifference and one way to avoid it is to stay in the fight throughout the year. If you’re willing to go boom or bust, then putting all your eggs in one basket could be for you. If you’re looking to stay engaged throughout the entire season, then this is probably not the strategy you want to employ.

Zig Zag (medium risk) 

Many seasoned fantasy players use a strategy known as zig-zagging. If you look at the highest percentage of drivers and constructors chosen so far in Formula 1’s official F1 Fantasy leagues, a certain team emerges:

Max Verstappen $26.9M

Charles Leclerc $21.2M

Fernando Alonso $8.3M

Nyck de Vries $5.0M

Nico Hulkenberg $4.3M

Red Bull Racing $27.2M

Aston Martin $6.7M

Verstappen, Leclerc, Alonso, Red Bull, and Aston Martin have all been selected in more than 40% of leagues. Constructing a popular team such as this will likely keep you in the mix, but will probably not allow you to break out from the pack. In order to do that, you’ll need to go against the grain.

The hype surrounding Mercedes this year has been rather muted, but the Silver Arrows did challenge for second in the Constructors’ Championship last year and previous to that had won 8 in a row. They have one of the strongest driver pairings in F1, including 7-time World Champion Lewis Hamilton. Historically, they have been the most reliable team on the grid and reportedly have a major upgrade coming for Baku.

Similarly, the early news on this year’s McLaren has been overwhelmingly negative, but Lando Norris did manage 7th in the Drivers’ Championship in last year’s car, which also had issues in winter testing. His new teammate, Oscar Piastri, may be a rookie, but he’s the most acclaimed rookie to reach F1 since George Russell. McLaren had a reliable package last year and has promised an early season upgrade to improve this year’s car. If you want to zig zag, and go against popular opinion, then going with a lineup like this could be for you:

Lewis Hamilton $23.7M

George Russell $18.6M

Lando Norris $11.2M

Oscar Piastri $7.0M

Yuki Tsunoda $4.8M

Mercedes $25.1M

Alpine $10.1M

All of the above have been selected in less than 30% of leagues and all have the potential to outperform expectations. Of course, this strategy is not without risk. It can certainly leave you with a hill to climb, especially early in the season, but if everything falls into place, you could be standing alone on the mountaintop at year’s end.

Go With Your Heart (risk be damned)

Fantasy sports are supposed to be fun and there is absolutely nothing wrong with just choosing teams and drivers you love. If you’re #TeamLH and don’t want to root for anyone from Red Bull, then throw out all the stats and predictions and pass on Max Verstappen. If you like Bottas’ mustache and mullet combo this year and want another reason to root for him, then make him your top driver and fill out a team around him with great hair. (Looking at you, Pierre!) Whatever keeps you engaged and adds to your enjoyment of the season is worth pursuing. Formula 1 allows you to create 3 teams. You could have one team that’s meant to be competitive, one that’s filled with drivers you love, and one that’s designed to make you smile every time you look at it. Formula 1 can break your heart. Your F1 Fantasy team doesn’t have to.