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November 21, 2021, 10:08 pm
Talk about the league’s changing foul standards has died down a little bit, and we saw both James Harden and Damian Lillard get those huge FT nights we’ve grown accustomed to last week, but things are starting to settle in enough that we can really begin to evaluate the rule changes’ impact on fantasy teams.
A quick and dirty look:
Last season’s top free throw shooters in fantasy leagues were: Damian Lillard (7.2 FTA per game), Trae Young (8.7), Steph Curry (6.3), Bradley Beal (7.7), Joel Embiid (10.7), DeMar DeRozan (7.2), Kevin Durant (6.8), Jimmy Butler (8.0), Kyrie Irving (4.0), Kawhi Leonard (5.7), James Harden (7.3) and Danilo Gallinari (3.4).
The top-12 so far this year: Steph Curry (4.8), Talen Horton-Tucker (3.5), DeMar DeRozan (8.1), James Harden (7.0), Bradley Beal (3.9), Trae Young (5.6), Bojan Bogdanovic (3.7), Jimmy Butler (8.9), Paul George (4.4), Goran Dragic (2.0), Zach LaVine (4.8), Damian Lillard (4.1).
Lillard and Young in particular have stuck out as guys who are not getting the same kind of calls they have in the past, with Lillard even talking about it in the media. The volume is definitely down league-wide, but a few players here have managed to stay close to old levels. Butler’s volume has actually increased, while Harden’s is about the same. His free throw rate (the number of free throw attempts to field goal attempts) is about the same (.486 compared to .440 last season, though a 20-attempt game on the weekend really helps).
Trae Young has been among the hardest hit in terms of free throw rate, dropping from .491 to .290. Lillard’s drop hasn’t been as stark, falling from .363 to .213, but it’s still substantial. It bears watching to see how this continues to evolve, because it has a major impact on one of each players’ most important categories, with the double whammy impact of depressing their overall scoring totals.
The Lillard situation is especially curious as he’s not usually one of the guys associated with blatant foul-baiting while Young is actually outperforming his numbers from last season thanks to vastly improved efficiency from the floor; if the free throws correct he could be in for a massive season.
Schedule Breakdown
Two Games: Mavs, Nuggets
Three Games: Nets, Cavs, Warriors, Rockets, Clippers, Heat, Knicks, Thunder, Sixers, Blazers, Spurs, Raptors
Four Games: Hawks, Celtics, Hornets, Bulls, Pistons, Pacers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Bucks, Wolves, Pelicans, Magic, Suns, Kings, Jazz, Wizards
Back-to-Backs
Tuesday/Wednesday: Pistons, Lakers, Heat, Blazers
Friday/Saturday: Hawks, Hornets, Bulls, Wolves, Pelicans, Knicks, Magic, Suns, Jazz, WizardsBest Schedule: Lakers (@ Knicks, @ Pacers, vs. Kings, vs. Pistons)
You couldn’t ask for two better games to close the week and the Knicks and Pacers haven’t been great at slowing opponents down much, either. Add in the fact that two of these games come on nights where you’re guaranteed to have open roster spots and it’s an easy call. The fact that you can get some extra games out of things makes it a lot more appealing, too, and probably elevates someone like Talen Horton-Tucker into lineup consideration over a guy that might have a four-game schedule that will only be in your starting lineup on two nights anyway.
Worst Schedule: Nuggets (@ Blazers, vs. Bucks)
You can mix in a little team context here too, as the Nuggets are a bit of a mess if Nikola Jokic remains out. That game against the Blazers is on that light Tuesday, but the Bucks game comes on a busy Friday. If Jokic can’t return, Will Barton is the only Nugget you’re going to be seriously considering.
Schedule Maximizers
Tuesday and Sunday are the light days this week with every other day pretty jam packed, so your targets for this are pretty clearly the Pistons, Lakers and Clippers. Considering there are 11 games on Monday and 13 on Wednesday, dropping a bottom-roster player who goes on those days for one of our maximizers should get you two extra games out of your roster at minimum.
Game of the Week: Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets, Saturday, November 27 @ 7:30 pm ET
A potential Finals preview? The scorching Suns head to Brooklyn to take on a Nets team near the top of the standings despite not really hitting its stride. The big players tend to elevate their games in big matchups, and while there’s not a ton of regular-season importance here it’s still a marquee matchup that should bring out the best in everybody.
Quick Adds
We don’t have a ton of obvious pickups this week, but as always you can check out Working the Wire for a fuller look at your top options.
Kevin Huerter, G, Atlanta Hawks
Huerter has had a couple of bad games mixed in since De’Andre Hunter (wrist) got hurt, but he’s been generally good over his last five, and he’s played enough in the two worse games to be comfortable in his floor. Over the last week Huerter has been a top-85 player in 9-cat with positive contributions in threes and FG%. We’d expect him to level up in rebounds, assists and steals at the expense of some efficiency, though that’s not the end of the world at all.
Jarred Vanderbilt, F, Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves have tried a few different looks at power forward but they seem to keep coming back to Vanderbilt, whose energy and physicality is sorely missed whenever he’s off the floor. He’s put up top-75 value over the last four contests in 25.4 mpg, with 9.0 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks while shooting .615 from the field on low volume. Those look like stats that can help anyone out, and while there is always the possibility for things to flip in the rotation again, Vanderbilt is making a strong case for a permanent starting job.
Injury Report
As always, we’re going to take a quick spin through the injury report to see what’s up with some high-profile players who aren’t at full health.
Nikola Jokic missed the last two games of last week with a right wrist sprain and got the “no timeline” from Michael Malone, whose injury reporting is spotty at best.
Luka Doncic (left knee/ankle sprains) was a game-time call before getting ruled out on Sunday, so it looks like he’s closing in on a return. The Mavs already got Maxi Kleber back from his oblique strain after a nine-game absence.
Cole Anthony (right ankle sprain) missed his first game of the year on Saturday and has been the offensive engine in Orlando, so hopefully that’s a short term deal.
Lauri Markkanen (health and safety) and Jarrett Allen (illness) were both able to return to practice on the weekend and are on the cusp of their returns. Unfortunately, it wasn’t all good news for the Cavs, as Collin Sexton will be done for the season after undergoing surgery on his torn left meniscus.
Joe Harris (left ankle sprain) will miss at least two more games but at least Kevin Durant is able to play through his right shoulder issue.
Jaylen Brown (right hamstring strain) was upgraded to questionable on the weekend but ended up sitting, though he’s getting close and should return on Monday. Same goes for Robert Williams (left knee tendinopathy).
OG Anunoby (hip) has missed three straight games but was questionable on Sunday before getting downgraded, so hopefully that won’t be long.
Mitchell Robinson sustained a concussion on Saturday and has no timeline for return; he’ll miss at least one game.
Kevin Porter Jr. has missed the last two games with a left thigh contusion.
The Grizzlies have some wing troubles with Dillon Brooks (hamstring) and De’Anthony Melton (groin) missing the last contest.
Joel Embiid remains in the health and safety protocols, but at least Matisse Thybulle was able to return to action last week.
Devonte’ Graham has missed two straight games with left foot soreness.