Wildcard Preview: Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

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  • Welcome to Wild Card Weekend, and we get started with the NFC South Champion Carolina Panthers hosting the five seeded Los Angels Rams. We’ve seen this game in the regular season where the Panthers pulled off the upset, winning 31-28.

    Summary of Week 13

    Most notably, Bryce Young played efficient, turnover free football. He completed 75% of his passes and averaged 10.3 yards per attempt. Carolina was also able to get the run game going. They totaled over 160 rushing yards between Chuba Hubbard (83), Rico Dowdle (58), and Young (23). On the other side, Stafford throw two early interceptions to put the Rams in a hole early. The team was still able to utilize Blake Corum (81) and Kyren Williams (72) to combine for over 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Where the Panthers succeeded was tempering the results from the receivers. Puka Nacua had just 72 yards and six receptions. Davante Adams had 58 yards on four catches, though two of those receptions were touchdowns.

    Panthers Defense vs Rams Offense

    Over the final three weeks of the season, the Panthers defense gave up at least 140 rushing yards in each of them, which was their defensive weakness all year. It’s not great that it’s getting worse/ In that same timespan, the Rams rank 7th in the NFL in rushing yards per game with a tick over 127 ypg. Queue up Williams and Corum for potential big days once again.

    Now lets turn our attention to the Panthers pass defense, which has been quite good over the past three weeks. They’ve held Baker Mayfield (week 16) and Sam Darnold both to under 150 yards through the air, and just 203 to Mayfield in their week 18 bought. Stafford had his fifth lowest passing output against Carolina in week 13. I’m hesitant to trust the Panthers passing defense again with Stafford having an MVP caliber season and leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns. The veteran has thrown nine touchdown and three interceptions since week 16 while throwing the ball at least 38 times each week.

    Rams Defense vs Panthers Offense

    Switching sides, the Panthers offense relied on the run and short passing game all season long, and it worked well earlier this season when the teams played. Unfortunately for Carolina, it’s fantastic running back duo has been anything but over the last few weeks. Rick Dowdle has a total of just 98 rushing yards since week 16 after having almost 400 rushing yards between weeks 5 and 6. The last time Hubbard was actually relevant was his performance against the Rams actually. Since having 81 yards rushing that day, he has totaled 79 yards in the following four games. That is just not going to cut it, especially against a fiery LA defense that has been strong against the run all season. Their ranking over the last three weeks shows a favorable matchup for Hubbard and Dowdle, but lets remember Bijan Robin just put 200 yards and three touchdowns on their head. I’m not better on the Panthers backs to have as much success as Robinson, or even as much as they enjoyed in week 13.

    The same can be said for the passing game. Bryce Young does well when the game is within reach and they are not down, and that’s exactly what happened when these two teams met a few weeks ago. They were able to rely on the run game and play action pass, allowing for easy reads, throws, and completions. Rookie Tetairoa McMillan is the only Panthers pass catcher to have a 100-yard receiving game. It’s hard to consistently win in today’s NFL without a passing offense that teams have to respect and producing through the air.

    Wildcard Weekend Outlook

    HC Dave Canales can cook up a successful scheme for his current personnel, but the team is going to need their defense to come out hot like it did when these two first met. Sean McVay feels like the poster child for NFL head coaches, and will most assuredly have adjustments made and his team ready to play. I don’t expect Stafford to give the ball away, nor do I expect the Panthers to suddenly turn into a team they aren’t. They are 8-9 for a reason, and have the worst point differential of all playoff teams at -69. If it becomes another higher scoring game, I don’t know that the Panthers will keep up this time around. They’ll need to keep their offense on the field and really chew the clock through the run game. I suspect the Rams are going to go all out to stop the run and dare Young and company to beat them through the air. Give me the Rams, and I think it’ll be a two score game.

    Bets:

    Rams -10.5 – They are 12-5 ATS this season, and this one feels like it could be one of those lopsided wildcard game we get every year.

    Bryce Young UNDER 193.5 Pass Yards – The Rams pass rush is likely to overwhelm Young, who struggles against pressure completing just 57.4% of his passes.

    Blake Corum ANYTIME TD Scorer – Taking the Rams to win by double digits means there should be plenty of opportunity for the Rams to run the ball and try to maintain a lead. Corum has been coming on strong and should see ample opportunity to spell Williams and in potential garbage time.