Cowboys (-5.5) vs. Giants (+5.5)

O/U 45.5

Important notes for Cowboys:

How the mighty have fallen.  A summer of drama and question marks has turned into an early season nightmare as the defense is broken and CeeDee Lamb is having melt downs on the sidelines. The Cowboys look broken and it starts with the owner, trickles down to the coach and affects anyone wearing the star on Sunday.  The Cowboys have won six straight and 13 of 14 vs. the Giants, tied for their most in such a stretch against one opponent.  They also boast the 32nd best run defense and 14th best pass defense.  The pass game is elite as always and ranks first in the league, but with a 3.5 yards-per-rush, the running back-by-committee is just a ensemble of failures.  The Cowboys are big road favorites, but they can’t stop the run or drain the clock via the run.  The game has unevolved and you need to do both in order to win.  Big favorites haven’t covered at all this season and a big road favorite, on a short week vs. a division-rival seems like a recipe for disaster, but you also can’t discount the recent head-to-head record.  The Giants secondary is banged up and wasn’t any good to begin with and the one thing we know is that Dak Prescott can light up the Giants.  Expect the Cowboys to get whatever they want on offense and continue to give up big gashes in the run game.

Important notes for the Giants:

One man can make a difference and for the Giants, that man is Malik Nabers.  Nabers has 23 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns, making him the first player in NFL history with 20-plus catches and three touchdowns in his first three career games.  He had a costly drop vs. the Commanders that might have sealed the game, but otherwise he’s been lights out and is only getting better.  The tale of the tape is going to be whether the Giants o-line can hold up vs. the Dallas D front seven.  The Giants can keep the front seven off-kilter by running the ball, but this team goes through Nabers and any play that doesn’t get him the ball can be considered a missed oppurtunity.  Daniel Jones was able to get a win in Cleveland and should be much more comfortable at home.  Devin Singletary has been solid and was much more productive in a positive game-script and should have had two TDs.  This offense isn’t explosive, but the Dallas D looks lost right now and if they was ever a time for the Giants to pounce, it’s right now.

The QBs: On paper this is a huge mismatch and Prescott should be able to move the ball at will.  Prescott is 32-8 against the NFC East and has been ever better vs. the Giants.  He’s fresh off a 378 yard game vs. the Ravens, but that was mostly trying to play catchup.  The Giants secondary doesn’t pose much of a threat and he’s a great QB1 for fantasy this week.  The Cowboys are 1-2 and are going to rely on their franchise QB to try and right the ship.  Expect him to throw early and often as the Cowboys try and stake out an early lead and take some pressure off their defense.  Jones finally looked good vs. an elite Cleveland defense, but he needs to be consistent if he’s going to be the QB for this team in the future.  The Giants will try and run the ball as the Cowboys have given up 464 rushing yards in the last two games, but if Jones can have another game without any TOs, he might have success vs. a Dallas team that isn’t getting pressure.  Expect Jones to use his legs more in this game as the Cowboys will look to try and take Nabers out of the game.  I would bet Jones rushing yards, but the fact that Dallas goes zone over man means the secondary won’t turn their backs as often when the play starts.

The RBs :  This is not a great game for RBs and while Singletary has a great matchup, he isn’t that explosive when compared to Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry.  He’s averaging 4.7 YPR and as long as the Giants can stay in the game, he should see heavy volume.  Beware of betting on RBs on a short week, but Singletary is a rock-solid RB2 for this week.  The Cowboys running game is in shambles and Ezekiel Elliot looks washed and Rico Dowdle isn’t quite ready to grab the reigns.  He only has 88 rushing yards on the season and he’s more of a stash for fantasy than a surefire play this week.  The Giants rush D isn’t anything to worry about, but the Cowboys are going to live and die with the ball in Prescott’s hands.

The WRs : This is perfect encapsulation of the current WR1 vs. the future WR1.  Lamb doesn’t have a 100 yard game this season and is probably about to explode.  He was visibly upset during the Ravens game and that usually means that the team goes out of their way to target him the next time out.  The Giants have played man coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL through three weeks and Lamb has a massive 37.1-percent target share in man coverage  He’s going to go off.  Malik Nabers is coming and he might already be here.  He has 37 targets through three games and while his longest catch is only 28 yards, he’s as versatile and explosive as they come.  If Dallas was smart, they would smother him all game, but the Giants have a done a solid job scheming him looks all over the field.  Nabers has been more successful in man vs. zone and the Cowboys play zone at the third-highest rate, but he should still be heavily involved regardless of the score.  Wan’Dale Robinson has been very effective as well and has 15 grabs through three games.  He’s a low-end flex play in deeper leagues this week because of his QB, but if the game-script turns poorly for the Giants, he could see more volume.

The TEs :  The Giants don’t really use their TE and Daniel Bellinger only has two receptions this season.  He is not on the radar.  Jake Ferguson though has been battling a knee injury and was able to get loose for 95 yards vs. the Ravens.  Look for him to be a big part of the offense as they don’t really have a number-two WR.  He hasn’t scored yet this season, but that could change this week.  Hopefully he is able to play close to 100% on a short week

Best Bet : CeeDee Lamb anytime TD plus alt line 100+ yards receiving +223 on Fanduel

It’s almost a rule at this point.  Anytime the star WR has a melt down over not being targeted enough, expect the team to go out its way to rectify the issue.  Lamb is a monster and has been held in check through three games.  That ends here.