Bills (+2.5) vs. Dolphins (-2.5)

O/U 48.5

Important notes for the Bills:

Josh Allen owns the Dolphins.  This isn’t conjecture, it’s a fact.  The Bills are still underdogs, which is surprising and despite an injury to Allen’s left wrist, he should be full boar even on a short week.  The Bills have averaged 31.7 points against Miami since coach Sean McDermott’s first season at the helm in 2017  The new-look WR core looked solid vs. the Cardinals and should continue to play well against the Miami secondary.  Dalton Kincaid didn’t get much action in Week 1, but should thrive vs. the Dolphins’ banged up linebackers.  James Cook is a perfect dual-threat weapon and expect the Bills to lean heavily on him, especially in the passing game.  This game could see plenty of explosive plays and Allen will be at the forefront of most of them.  The Bills’ defense will get tested much more in the downfield passing game than they did vs. Kyler Murray, who mostly threw near the line of scrimmage.

Important notes for the Dolphins:

The Bills will be missing their top corner and that bodes well for Tyreek Hill to continue destroying everyone in his path.  Jaylen Waddle looked great as well and you obviously can’t go wrong starting both WRs this week.  Raheem Mostert (chest) is out and De’Von Achane is a game-time decision.  If he can’t go, expect a healthy dose of Jeff Wilson Jr. and possibly Jaylen Wright.  The Dolphins will probably lean more on their passing game and Tua Tagovailoa is a great start for fantasy this week.  Tua has historically struggled vs. elite teams, but that is a trend that should get exposed as the Bills can’t keep up with the speed of the Dolphins

The QBs: This is a great game for QBs and Josh Allen is as safe a bet as anyone this week.  He ran for two TDs last week and should find the end zone again.  He throws for two TDs vs. the Dolphins like clockwork and he has a great chance to be the QB1 again. He’s 11-2 against Miami with 41 touchdowns in his career. Tua led the league is passing yards last season as well as last week and looks primed for another 300 yard game.  The total of this game is 48.5 and it could fly over if both QBs are as locked in as they were in Week 1.

The RBs :  With Mostert out, this would be an automatic Achane game, but he’s nursing an ankle injury that will probably let him play, but could flare up during the game.  Jeff Wilson Jr. is a great flex option this week as James Connor was dominant as a dual-threat back last week.  Jaylen Wright is worth playing if Achane can’t go, but is only really a play in deeper leagues.  The James Cook season is officially underway and the only threat to his elite RB status is the fact that Allen runs the ball in anytime they get inside the 10.  The Bills have shifted to aggressively running the ball with their new OC, but considering how great Allen has been through the air vs. Miami, Cook might see a slight downtick in rushes.  He’s still a RB1 and should smash 100 all-purpose yards.

The WRs : Tyreek Hill is a madman and despite his arrest in Week 1, he still got loose for an 80 yard TD.  The Bills won’t be able to stop him this game and expect another 100 yards and a TD, but it was Waddle who broke out, catching all five targets for over 100 yards.  This a two-tier passing attack and nothing should change in Week 2.  The Bills are more complicated as rookie Keon Coleman looked great next to Khalil Shakir.  The Bills have a bunch of unproven weapons and will be adding Curtis Samuel into the mix.  It’s hard to rank them for fantasy, but it probably goes Shakir, Coleman and then Samuel with Shakir/Coleman being decent WR3s in 12-man leagues.  Allen also wound up completing 18 passes to 10 different receivers, so there is going to be a lot of fluctuation week-to-week.

The TEs :  The Dolphins might be using Jonnu Smith as their WR3 and he’s solid stream option in Week 2.  The talk of fantasy was the letdown that was Dalton Kincaid after a summer of hype.  Kincaid saw two targets just like Dawson Knox, but Week 1 didn’t do enough to throw us off the scent.  Kincaid had an 83% route participation with just a 5% target share and that should fix itself this week.  The Bills are going to run plenty of 12 personnel and Kincaid is still a must-start and could breakthrough in this game.

Best Bet : Josh Allen anytime TD +100 and Tyreek Hill anytime TD -120

It’s usually ideal to zag after Week 1, but Allen is the goal-line back and getting plus money is just too good to pass up.  Hill scored in Week 1 and there is no one who can keep up with him in the Buffalo secondary.  I will probably parlay these two for +245 odds, but it’s smarter to play them separately.

Las week 1-0 with best bet.