Steelers (-3.5) @ Browns (+3.5)

O/U 40.5

*There is a 90% chance of precipitation during the Browns vs. Steelers game

Important notes for Steelers:

The Steelers started this season grinding out points under Justin Fields and recently they have started airing it out while maintaining an elite defense.  They’ve won five in a row and scored at least 28 points in three of the last five.  They are 8-2 against the spread on the season and have been punishing teams on both ends lately.  They just won a narrow victory at home vs. the Ravens and are looking to continue dominating in the division.  It’s been a very consistent Steeler team despite the change in QB.  Najee Harris is having his best season, but has slowed down recently, setting the state for Jaylen Warren to take off.  The real revelation has been George Pickens, who has at least 70 yards receiving in four straight games and two TDs in the last four after not scoring in the first six.  The Steelers are peaking at the right time and have weapons across the board which has propelled them to 5-0 against the spread across the five-game win streak, including three outright wins as the underdog.

Important notes for the Browns:

The Browns are headed in the opposite direction except they at least are a fun hang.  Jameis Winston has the ball flying around and has over 300 yards passing in two of his three games.  The problem is that in the one other game he thew for three INTs.  The offense has come alive and WR Cedric Tillman looks like a star and Jerry Jeudy has been rejuvenated in this new downfield attack.  The biggest problem is the running game which hasn’t been resurrected with Nick Chubb returning.  Chubb hasn’t rushed for over 55 yards in any of his four games and only has the one TD.  The defense has also been a problem, allowing teams to strike downfield and ranking in the bottom-five in passing yards per attempt at 7.8.  They’ve only allowed 14 passing TDs, which is middle of the pack, but they are tied for second worst with only two INTs.

The QBs: This is a great matchup of reclamation projects as both QBs have been on the carousel the last couple of seasons.  Wilson looks reinvigorated on the Steelers, playing behind an elite defense and not being asked to do too much.  He’s not running the ball anymore, but the Steelers just need someone to manage the game and hit Pickens with an explosive every once in awhile.  The defense and special teams can do the rest.  Wilson still has just enough to be effective for fantasy, but he’s also boom-or-bust.  In his four starts, he has two top-10 finishes and two outside the top-24.  The Browns are a nice matchup for him on paper, but they get some of their defensive talent back and the weather threatens to turn this into a ground game.  He’s not a viable start for 1QB leagues this week.  Winston seems immune to anything that could help or hurt him and it’s just a roll of the dice.  Starting him vs. this PITT defense would seem insane though.  Even if he gets the yards in this one, he won’t get the TDs and that will come with plenty of mistakes.  He’s always good for a couple of throws that could be penalties, TDs or INTs, but that’s not worth betting your fantasy matchup on.  Even if the weather wasn’t a factor, this would be a tough start.  I’m not even sure I’d play him in Superflex leagues this week.

The RBs : I’ve been banking on the Chubb train finally starting to roll for a while now and at the point, I’ve sold my all my stock for this season.  Last week was the perfect matchup and while he averaged 4.5 YPC, he only had 10 rushes and this just isn’t the team or year for him to get back to doing what he does best.  The weather will be in his favor this week, but the defense won’t be.  PIT is top-five vs. the rush and this will be tough sledding for Chubb, who doesn’t look at explosive as he did in past seasons.  He’s a fringe flex play due to volume, but he will need to score to make it worth it.  Too bad.  Najee Harris has been a revelation this season and has finished inside the top-20 in five straight weeks.  There are no surprises with him as he gets about 20 carries and has been good for a TD every other game.  The offense picking up has really helped him as he went scoreless in the first five games of the season, but he’s not getting the same burst as he was early in the season.  He’s still a must-start this week, especially with the weather, but it’s his counterpart Jaylen Warren, who really interests me.  He’s had at least 40 yards rushing in three straight games and is peaking while Harris is slowing down.  Warren is also the better receiving threat and has at least 25 yards in b2b games.  Harris the better play for this game, but I like Warren as a sleeper down the stretch.  If Harris goes down, Warren might finally fulfill his promise and swing leagues.  He’s not quite an RB2 this week, but I like him slightly more than Chubb with the potential weather issues.

The WRs : The entire world is betting Pickens overs tonight and that should scare you.  If there wasn’t this rain/wind issue, I would be right there, but it’s got me scared off.  He’s still a must-start and a WR2 this week, but the ceiling is lowered to the point you have to bend over when you stand up.  This is not the game to play deep threats, but Pickens is the only viable receiving threat, so you still have to play him.  In the right matchup, like last week vs. the Saints, Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy are must-starts, but not this week.  If you have any depth at all, I would avoid them as the Steelers have more INTs than TDs allowed.  This could all be overreacting as it’s still early, but a TNF AFC North clash right before December is historically one you want to avoid for fantasy.  This has all the makings of an ugly, punt-filled, mistake prone game where both offenses get stuck in the mud or snow.

The TEs : David Njoku has blossomed under Winston and went nine-for-nine last week for 81 yards.  The TE position is the one place you can attack this PIT defense, so he doesn’t get too much of a weather downgrade, but limit your expectations.  I’m still starting Njoku over most TEs, but if it’s close this week, go with your other stud.  Pat Freiermuth might have a good game because this will be check-down city, but I’m not starting him unless I have two TEs on bye week.

Best Bet : Jaylen Warren 32.5 rushing yards is staring me in the face.  

I just pointed out that Warren has at least 40 yards in three straight games and will get extra work in a weather game.  I think Warren is currently the better back and could steal the position this week.  Also, expecting a positive game-script means lots of runs late in the game.  I think he sails over this number and will bet it confidently.  If you want a lock of locks, take Winston to throw an INT -198, but that’s heavy juice.

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