Thursday Night Preview

Chiefs (-3) vs. Ravens (+3)

O/U 46.5

Important notes for Chiefs :

It’s a brand new passing game for the Chiefs after they led the league in drop balls last season.  This isn’t the final form as Hollywood Brown is out for Week 1 and rookie burner Xavier Worthy isn’t quite a finished product.  They lost L’Jarius Sneed at corner which means Trent McDuffie will have to step up.  The talk of the fantasy circles is Patrick Mahomes improving his ADOT from a career-worst 6.2 last season.  This is not the game to start letting it fly as the Ravens’ secondary is truly elite and this might go down as the Kyle Hamilton game.  The rule of gambling is don’t bet against Mahomes, but three points at home vs. an angry Ravens doesn’t that sound smart either.

Important notes for the Ravens:

Choo Choo.  The Ravens finally have a standout RB after watching an endless parade of RBs go down with knee injuries.  Derrick Henry might be in the twilight of his prime, but the man can still turn it up when needed.  With all the talk of the Ravens not running the ball vs. the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, expect the Ravens to show off their shiny semi-new toy.  A depleted o-line might keep Henry from truly torching the Chiefs, but expect him to empty the clip in his game in purple and black.  The Ravens lost DC Mike Macdonald to the Seahawks and it will be interesting to see how the try and attack the Chiefs defensively.  The best defense might just be a chain-moving offense.

The QBs: This is the marquee QB matchup as the Superbowl MVP goes up against the regular season MVP.  While both players are still must-starts, I don’t expect much fireworks in the opening slate.  Each team boasts an elite secondary and I expect both teams to lean heavily on the run.  I do expect both Jackson and Mahomes to use their legs as each defense prefers to play man coverage which could force the secondaries to turn their backs.  The real question is whether Worthy can sneak behind the safeties because we know Mahomes can find him.  Jackson has a sophomore WR in Zay Flowers who could be primed for a blow up season and a finally healthy Mark Andrews.  I’m expected a low scoring game, but elite play from both QBs.  20 points fantasy points should be attainable for each, but don’t expect 30.

The RBs :  The Ravens have a history of making a splash with their new acquisitions in Week 1 and I wouldn’t expect any difference here.  Henry should rumble for 20+ carries as the Ravens will want to control the clock and wear the Chiefs down.  Justice Hill might get some snaps, but isn’t worth playing for fantasy.  Isaiah Pacheco is also primed to light up the Ravens as the Ravens gave up 4.5 YPC last season.  The Chiefs pass at a league-high rate, but there won’t be any stacked boxes for Pacheco.  The real question is whether Samaje Perine is going to be on the field for passing downs in a similar version to how the Chiefs used Jerick McKinnon.  If that happens, it could drastically affect Pacheco’s snap rate inside the red zone.  Both Henry and Pacheco are easy starts, but Henry has 100 rushing yards and multiple TDs in his forecast.

The WRs : This is the big one as Rashee Rice emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target last season and somehow avoided suspension in the offseason.  Rice was mostly running run routes just past the sticks and used his incredible YAC to elude tacklers.  If the Chiefs can expand his route tree and get him more downfield, Rice could see his fantasy value explode.  The other side of the coin is Flowers, who is the clearcut WR1 for the Ravens and could see a massive target share spike from 22% last season.  Jackson is exponentially more comfortable with the air-raid offense and we could see Flowers emerge as a true WR1 for fantasy purposes this season.  Rashod Bateman is living off his draft capital and hasn’t shown an ability to stay healthy or produce for fantasy purposes.  He remains an alluring bait for fantasy GMs, but if he has a good Week 1, there are worse options on the wire.

The TEs :  I lied, this is the big one.  Travis Kelce vs. Mark Andrews is a PPV event, but one has to wonder how much Kelce has in the tank and how willing he is to expend his reserves in Week 1.  The Ravens and Chiefs were both pretty great vs. TEs last season, but Kelce and Andrews are both game-wreckers.  We saw last season that Kelce is using the regular season as a tune-up, but opening night at home with a massive audience could be enough to rev his engines.  I worry about his ability to get separation after the catch, but he should still serve as the safety valve.  Andrews, similar to Kelce should serve as the defacto number-two option in the passing game.  Expect plenty of targets, especially in the red zone and it wouldn’t shock me if both TEs each found pay dirt tonight.  Isaiah Likely is only a stash in case Andrews gets hurt and if you roster Andrews, it’s worth the bench spot.

Best Bet : Derrick Henry anytime TD (-125) Fanduel

We aren’t trying to reinvent the wheel here.  The Ravens don’t like using Jackson inside the five and there is even less reason to do so now.  Henry is going to get his carries and he could even break one from outside the red zone.  This seems like too good of a bet to turn down.  The only risk is if the Ravens score from outside the red zone or get down big and abandon the run.  Either way, there will be a moment where Henry is barreling close to the goal-line and in that instant you will be happy you bet him to score.