I traditionally don’t pay a lot of attention to free agency, it’s often overblown and results in players past their primes chasing the bag.  That theory got shot to hell last season when the big four FA RBs all blew up and carried the day.  One year doesn’t make a trend, but it definitely worth taking a long hard some look at some of the big names and trying to decipher if who got an upgrade in situation, a downgrade or just a lateral move.  Evaluating a team switch is more art than science.  You have to use a concoction of fit, usage, opportunity, style of play and hunger/physical state.  I’m always extra wary when a player starts treating teams like a Ferris wheel and just hops from city to city as he gets older.  The second stop I’m willing to invest it, but if he’s headed towards his third team in three years, I’m out just on principle.

The Free Agent signings I hate

Deandre Hopkins – Ravens – 1 year 6 million

Hopkins is one of the best WRs of the last decade, but the burst is gone and he can’t really get open downfield anymore.  Going from Pat Mahomes to Lamar Jackson is probably a lateral move, but this is his third team in two seasons.  The longest pass he caught last season was 35 yards and while the Ravens don’t have a top-end WR, they do have plenty of options and Hopkins is at best the fifth option.  He only had 109 YAC last season which ranked 101.  Comparatively Ja’Marr Chase led the league with 833.

Javonte Williams – Cowboys – 1 year 3 million

Everyone expects DAL to draft a RB, so Williams might have the starting job in Week 1, but it’s unlikely he can hold onto it.  He played in 18 games last season, but only averaged 3.7 YPR and his longest rush was a measley 20 yards.  The explosive rookie that we saw before he tore his ACL is gone and he’s now mostly a pass-catching back.  That could still have uses in fantasy, but DAL targeted their RBs only 14% last season which ranked 28th in the league.  There’s a world where Williams posts RB2 numbers for the first handful of weeks, but the upside is so capped, there’s almost no point in drafting him.

Raheem Mostert – Raiders 1 year 2.1 million

Mostert is the oldest RB in the league and honestly, that’s all you need to know.  He defied the odds two seasons ago by leading the league in rushing TDs, but that was the exception, not the rule.  Now he goes to a Raiders team that was 31st in rushes-per-game and looking to draft an RB1.  Mostert got hurt in Week 1 and never really recovered, expect more of the same this season.

Davante Adams – Rams – 2 years 46 million

Adams somehow staved off the massive decline that comes for nearly all 30+ WRs.  He was the WR11 and a lot of it had to do with Aaron Rodgers feeding him the ball as both he and Garrett Wilson were top-10 in targets.  Adams is going to another team that likes to hyper-target its two WRs, but Puka Nacua is going dwarf Adams in terms of TS.  It’s the third team in two seasons and while Adams might be the best WR of the last decade, you have to know when to abandon ship.

Stefon Diggs – Patriots – 3 years 69 million

On the face of it, this is the worst contract of the entire off season.  When you peel it back, it’s probably just a one-year deal, but Diggs is a declining talent, who just had major surgery.  His ADP will reflect that, but will he even be ready for Week 1 and even if he is, is he worth rostering?  He was having a solid season before he got hurt, but the Buffalo Diggs is gone and not coming back.  Diggs isn’t even worth drafting at this point.

Mack Hollins – Patriots – 2 years 8.4 million

Hollins was great with the Bills last year and was a TD machine, but the downgrade from Josh Allen to Drake Maye is too steep.  The value of the deal looks great compared to Diggs and Hollins will almost assuredly be better than Diggs next season, but he’s still 31 years old and last season was more of a anomaly than anything else.  I actually like the signing for NE, just not for fantasy.

Russell Wilson – Giants- 1 year 21 million

Third team in three years alert.  Playoff team to one of the worst teams in the league.  No o-line and only one weapon.  This has nightmare scenario written all over it.  Wilson had a stretch last season where he looked great and he rejuvenated George Pickens.  So while no one should be drafting Wilson this season, the only real question is what will he do to Malik Nabers.  Nabers had to catch balls that were everywhere except in his vicinity last season, so maybe Russ can make the leap from inept to competent, but consider me skeptical.  For comparison Nabers had 124 catchable targets on 170 overall, Amon-Ra St. Brown had 125 catchable on only 141 targets.

Justin Fields – Jets – 2 years 40 million

I was one of the last people holding on to the Fields’ train before it caromed into the water.  He’s just not a starting QB.  I thought he had the makings on the Bears when they added DJ Moore, but he was his own worst enemy on PIT last season.  He was under 160 passing yards in four of his six games and while he can run it with the best of them, I don’t like his fit on the Jets and am terrified what will happen to Garrett Wilson.

Demarcus Robinson – 49ers – 9.5 million

The value is solid, but I am not a Robinson believer.  I am a believer in Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall and eventually Brandon Aiyuk.  The Niners are poised for a bounce-back season and unless they have another health catastrophe, I don’t see Robinson on the field very often.

Cooper Kupp – Seahawks – 3 years 45 million

The book on Kupp is out and it’s not good.  So many people have zagged so far on Kupp, that people are starting to zig back to him having value.  I’d rather draft a rookie WR I have never heard of than Kupp because it’s all about ceiling late in your draft.  He’s going to have a role with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett gone, but he’s a possession receiver now who will be lucky to have five grabs for 50 yards.  It’s a downgrade in QB and while the Seahawks were a top-five passing offense last season, there is are too many new parts to bank on a repeat performance.

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The Free Agent signings I love

Josh Palmer – Bills 3 years – 36 million

Going from Justin Herbert to Josh Allen is another fairly lateral move as both QBs have cannons, but are generally have run-heavy approaches.  Palmer goes from being the WR3 on LA to potentially battling for the WR2 position.  He had a 13% TS last season which would put him slightly ahead of Keon Coleman on BUF last season.  If Amari Cooper doesn’t resign, there will be plenty of volume up for grabs and Palmer is capable WR who has never really clicked as his career-high for yards in a season is only 769.

Rico Dowdle – Panthers 1 year – 6.25 million

Dowdle finally emerged as a legit RB1 by the end of last season.  He had at least 70 rushing yards in six of the last seven games and would have finished higher than the RB23 if he had scored more than two rushing TDs.  Now, heading to CAR, he’s going to be in a timeshare with Chuba Hubbard who had his own breakout season.  The problem is that CAR ranked 27th (24.1) in runs-per-game as they were often behind early and had to play catch-up.  That didn’t stop Hubbard from finishing as the RB15, but now expect both to see a decrease in volume.  The Panthers should be better next season and Dowdle has shown he has the chops to be a lead back.  It might be slow going at first, Dowdle is going to have nothing but upside with a depressed ADP.

Evan Engram – Broncos 2 years – 23 million

I do love me a TE redemption arc.  Engram had an injury filled campaign, only racking up 47 grabs and 365 yards last season after finishing the previous one with 963 yards and a league leading 114 receptions.  Now, he’s headed to DEN, who have an elite QB and not a ton of weapons to contend with.  The Broncos ranked 31st in TE targets last season at 13%, but we know from his NO days that Sean Payton loves to target his TEs.  The DEN was offense was a work in progress last season, but should hit the ground running with a year of seasoning.  They ranked 3rd in scoring over the last eight games of the season once Bo Nix found his groove.  Courtland Sutton is solid and Marvin Mims might break out, but volume is king and Engram is about regain his throne.

Christian Kirk – Texans 1 year – 15.5 million

This was a trade, but it may as well act as FA.  The Texans were cursed at WR last season and it doesn’t help that Kirk is coming off a major injury himself.  Kirk is 28 and now two years removed from his breakout season where he had 84 grabs for 1108 yards.  That guy is still in there and maybe getting free from Trevor Lawrence will solve some issues.  Kirk initially exploded as the WR1 for the Jags, but he was always miscast.  He’s an ideal slot WR that can get open and find the hole in the coverage.  That works best when there is something else attracting the teeth of the defense.  Nico Collins is that something else and in a similar fashion to Stefon Diggs last season, Kirk should thrive as the forgotten man as the defense scrambles to contain the superstar WR.  Kirk hasn’t seen a fantasy playoff in the last two seasons and while that is troubling, it means there is going to be a massive fantasy discount on him on draft day.  The Texans had a year from hell, but I’m banking on a bounce back for the offense that was top-10 in pass/rush splits at 59/41.

Dynami Brown – Jaguars 1 year – 10 million

There is no way to sugarcoat it, but going from Jayden Daniels to Trevor Lawrence is a huge downgrade.  This is a bet on talent as Brown is still young and while he didn’t have a big season, he was the WR22 in yards after catch per reception with 7.0 (tied with Rashee Rice).  Brown only had 40 targets last season and with the Jags moving on from Kirk and Engram, there should be plenty more up for grabs as defenses desperately try and contain Brian Thomas Jr.  The Jags had an anemic offense last season and ranked last with only 58.4 plays-per-game.  That should go up with Liam Cohen and this is bet on the Jags making the leap from inept to competent.

Najee Harris – Chargers 1 year – 9.25 million

If we have learned anything about RBs, it’s that they don’t matter as much as the system they play in.  The Steelers finally invested in thier o-line and Harris had a nice season, finishing as the RB20, but now he goes to a team built around getting RBs the ball.  The Chargers have a great o-line and a mandate.  They were top-10 in rush/pass splits at 46/54 and finished 12th in rushes per-game, despite losing their only quality RB for a quarter of the season.  Harris isn’t as explosive as he was in college, he had zero rushes for 40+ yards last season, but he won’t be sharing a backfield anymore and he’s the clear-cut RB1 in a run-heavy offense and Harris has played every game of his career.  The floor is made of Vibranium even if the ceiling isn’t in the clouds.

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