Projecting fantasy value for prospects is always speculative, and doing so for a pitcher with 54.2 minor league innings is all the more difficult. Nonetheless, Kumar Rocker’s pedigree is such that a closer look is worthwhile, especially with some eye-catching performances in five Double-A
starts in his return from injury, earning him a promotion to Triple-A.

Going into the 2021 college baseball season, draft projections pegged Rocker as a potential first overall pick, fawning over his electric fastball/slider combo, top command, impressive stamina and elite makeup. Rocker was the consensus best pitcher in college baseball after winning the
CWS Most Outstanding Player award in 2019, and posting a 2.73 ERA with 179 strikeouts in 122 innings in 2021 with Vanderbilt.

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Some concern over reduced velocity and effectiveness in late season starts dropped his draft stock, as did his decision to abstain from the pre-draft medical program, and he fell to the Mets with the 10th overall pick. New York had verbally agreed an over-slot bonus for Rocker, but declined to make any offer after discovering elbow and shoulder problems in his medical review.

At the behest of his agent (Scott Boras), Rocker opted to pitch in the Frontier League instead of going back to Vanderbilt, dominating in 20 innings there after undergoing shoulder surgery in the summer of ‘21. The Rangers surprisingly drafted Rocker with the third overall pick in 2022,
and he would make six starts in 2023 with a 3.86 ERA and greatly reduced velocity before undergoing Tommy John Surgery in May.

The pitcher who was once hailed as a surefire ace in college had dropped off prospect boards, with many prospect evaluators questioning his ability to ever pitch at the major-league level with the condition of his arm.

Luckily for Rocker, prospect rankings are just (hopefully) educated guessing, and a player can raise their stock just as quickly as it can fall. A 0.46 ERA in 19.2 innings with 29 strikeouts and a 0.61 WHIP will do that, especially when accompanied by a fastball touching 100 and averaging
98, higher than any fastball average of his college or professional career.

His stuff profile is different since his return from injury, and offer some unique looks that could give big league hitters problems. Rocker is 6 ft 5 and throws from a 3/4 arm slot with above average extension, but neither of his fastballs have great characteristics beyond the velocity,
with 14 inches of IVB (induced vertical break) on the four-seamer (18+ is elite, 16 is good). @LanceBroz on Twitter notes that the lack of variance in his sinker causes a low ground ball rate, which he believes could be improved.

The cutter and changeup offer some east-to-west break in the low 90s with some decent characteristics, but his slider is the real moneymaker. Typically in the mid 80s, the pitch breaks almost straight down, making it equally effective to lefties and righties, inducing chase and/or
whiff over 3/4 of the time. The absurd returns from the slider probably makes Rocker ready for an MLB bullpen now, but with the Rangers well out of contention, they’ll focus on next season.

Rocker’s fantasy value and prospect profile will soar if any semblance of these results continue, so in dynasty leagues, it may be a worthwhile add now, depending on your league format, and whether you are in a playoff race/can afford to pick up an MiLB pitcher who probably won’t contribute this season. My expectation for next season is that the Rangers allow him to get a late start, limiting his innings and controlling his service time, before calling him up in May if all goes well. The health still remains a long-term concern, but with performances like these in the minors, the sky is the limit when he’s on the field.

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