Draft Guide: 2024 Rookie WR Class

Ya’ll, there are some DUDES in this year’s rookie wide receiver class. There are a few NFL ready guys who are looking to instantly be their offense’s go to weapon, some guys that are stuck playing second and third fiddle (for now), and some true boom or bust prospects to round it all out. The question is, where should we be drafting these guys in redraft, if at all? My personal philosophy was always to avoid drafting rookie wideouts in full redraft leagues, with the obvious exception every now and again. However, over the past couple years, there’s been value to be had that may have reconsidering if my philosophy is outdated. Let’s structure the conversation in a way that provides a look at some 2023 rookies situations and outcomes, then make some loose comparisons to the current batch of first year wide outs. There’s generally two situations a wide receiver gets drafted into year one: talented depth or expected impact player.

*Stats are based on 12-team, full PPR leagues.

*ADP sourced from fantasydata.com.

Talented Depth

The name: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NFL draft stats: WR1, pick 1.20 to the Seattle Seahawks

2023 Fantasy draft stats: WR40, Overall 91, pick 8.07

JSN was the first WR off the board in the 2023 NFL draft, and rightfully so. His profile fit the bill, but the landing spot for instant success was questionable at best. Nevertheless, we like to believe the talent will ultimately win out, and consensus ADP for Smith-Njigba was 8.07. After a slow start to the season, he finally hit in week 7, finishing as WR16. If you were patient enough to hold on, you felt vindicated. This was going to be the start of the JSN show in Seattle. Week 8’s WR34 finish was a bit disappointing, but hey, still serviceable, hell bounce back. And that he (sort of) did, as week 9 saw him finish inside the top 24. And that was that. He wouldn’t reach those numbers again until week 15, likely on the waiver wire or the end of your opponents bench. Safe to say JSN didn’t return value relative to being a mid 8^th round pick.

The name: Quentin Johnston

NFL draft stats: WR2, pick 1.21 to the Los Angeles Chargers

2023 Fantasy draft stats: WR48, Overall 112, pick 10.04

Quentin Johnston was seen as a boom or bust prospect with an enormous ceiling and an equally low floor. He, like JSN, was drafted to be his teams WR3 for his rookie season. The hope was that he would develop behind two veterans in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, then take over as the top dog the following season. The fantasy community understood this, and drafted him in the middle of the 10^th round at 10.04. There’s something tempting about these risk/reward players that have a stranglehold on the fantasy community. If you hit, you’re a genius. If you miss, you’re a fool. Unfortunately for QJ, he turned a lot of drafters into fools. He left a lot to be desired in the opportunities he got, essentially tanking any promise of value for fantasy this season.

The name: Jordan Addison

NFL draft stats: WR4, pick 1.23 to the Minnesota Vikings

2023 Fantasy draft stats: WR37, Overall 84, pick 7.12

I’ll admit, Addison’s situation is slightly different from JSN and QJ in that Addison was drafted as the clear WR2 for the Vikings. However, with a premiere catching tight end in TJ Hockenson, Addison came in as the third man on the target totem pole. However, Addison started making a fantasy impact straight out the gate, finishing at WR19, 28, and 38 in weeks 1-3 respectively. After a down week, he followed up with six straight weeks inside the top 36 at the position, including a Week 7 WR1 finish. This, of course, coincides with the time Justin Jefferson missed. This is a great example of how an injury can change things for a rookie wideout drafted behind veteran pass catchers. The first two guys discussed weren’t provided the same opportunity Addison was, so their redraft value never came to fruition. However, it’s risky business to try and predict injuries, and something I generally don’t like to do.

Guys that fit into this bucket:

The Name: Rome Odunze,

NFL Draft Stats: WR3, pick 1.09 by the Chicago Bears.

Fantasy Draft Stats: WR37, Overall 74, pick 7.02

He found himself almost in the exact same situation as JSN coming into his rookie year. Odunze starts training camp as the WR3 for this team behind two veterans who have proven they can produce with the best in the league. We saw JSN struggle to be fantasy relevant all season long, and we are likely to see the same outcome for Odunze. Yes, Odunze was a top-10 pick, and you generally like to see those guys make an impact right away. He’s also a better prospect than Smith-Njigba was, so it may be tempting to smash the draft button at his current ADP of 7.02. Fun fact: I didn’t know where he was being drafted as we sit here at the end of May, but turns out he’s going AHEAD of where JSN went a year ago. I wouldn’t advise drafting him there. Hopefully his ADP falls as we get closer to tradition draft time of August and he can be had in the double digit rounds. I’d be willing to take a shot on him late for one reason: We should see in the first week or two what his role will be. If he’s far behind the DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, you can drop him for whoever the hot waiver pick is. However, his talent is undeniable, and the Bears may have a plan to get him more involved than we anticipate. A late round pick would be worth finding out, but there’s no chance I’ll have any Odunze shares at his current price.

The name: Brian Thomas, Jr.

NFL Draft Stats: WR4, pick 1.23 by the Jacksonville Jaguars

Fantasy Draft Stats: WR43, Overall 94, pick 8.10

I was wavering between putting Brian Thomas in the talented depth category or the instant impact category, as he was drafted with the expectation that he will become the WR1 on this team, hopefully this season. I ultimately decided to stick him here, because there’s a couple of very talented pass catchers in Jacksonville already in Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. Kirk is an excellent WR2 for a team, while Engram isn’t a number one target despite essentially being a WR with the tight end designation. However, the presence of both lends itself to a Jordan Addison type deal where he can be eased into action. He boasts an equally as talented prospect profile as Addison as well, though they are two different types of wide receivers. The big question will be if Trevor Lawrence can support three pass catching options that are fantasy relevant while giving way to the run game with Travis Etienne. For me, it’s going to be tough to trust that, as well haven’t seen it from the Lawrence led Jaguars. I won’t be drafting Thomas in the 8^th round, but would venture to do so at a cheaper cost in case the talent supersedes one of the two veteran targets.

The Name: Xavier Worthy

NFL Draft Stats: WR5, pick 1.28 by the Kansas City Chiefs

Fantasy Draft Stats: WR41, Overall83, pick 7.11

I was just as intrigued as anyone to see where Xavier Worthy ended up after his record setting 40-yard dash (and because he’s a good wide receiver), and boy did he hit the lotto with this landing spot. The issue is that he is currently sitting 4^th in line for targets behind Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and recently signed Marquise Brown. Now, Rice may be getting a suspension to begin the season, so Worthy should have a shot at earning a larger role in his absence. I’m sure there are going to be some blow up games from Worthy where he takes the top off the defense for a couple 50 yard touchdown strikes. As of now, I think those games will realistically end up happening on your bench. I like Worthy a lot more in best ball than I do redraft, where I wouldn’t take him until a few rounds later, if at all really. I’d like to hear more about the Rice situation before making a hard stance, because I see the value Worthy could have if given a full-time role right away. I just have a hard time believing this will be the case.

The name: Ricky Pearsall

NFL Draft Stats: WR6, pick 1.31 by the San Francisco 49ers.

Fantasy Draft Stats: WR66, overall 158, pick 14.02

I’m not sure too many saw this pick coming, but Ricky Pearsall lands in a terrific spot. The offense is top tier, and the coach is an offensive wizard. The only issue is that there are two studs ahead of him in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. This doesn’t even count tight end George Kittle or the do-it-all running back Christian McCaffery. The 49ers have proven they can support all these guys being high-end fantasy assets, all with Brock Purdy leading the way. However, Pearsall is going to be buried in the pecking order for a bit. That is, unless the 49ers move either Aiyuk or Samuel. There’s been rumblings for a while now about the former being shipped elsewhere. If your league likes to draft early, Pearsall is a guy I would avoid. If you’re hellbent on taking him, I think a last round pick is fine because a trade might occur to open up more room. If the 49ers offense remains the same for the 2024 season, avoid drafting Pearsall in your redraft leagues.

The Name: Xavier Legette

NFL Draft Stats: WR7, pick 1.32 by the Carolina Panthers

Fantasy Draft Stats: WR61, Overall 147, pick 13.03

Legette is another risk vs reward player. He has a lot of big plays on some designed touches, but doesn’t run routes very well as a whole. In theory, Legette will develop into the WR1 the Panthers desperately need. In reality, Legette sits at the WR3 behind Adam Thielen and the newly acquired Diontae Johnson. Personally, I don’t love these types of guys. I just need my wide receives to run good routes. When you cannot, it’s a major knock for me. Beyond the depth chart, we have some more concerns regarding Legette and his situation. The offense is expected to run the ball quite a bit under the head coach Dave Canales, and the quarterback situation is murky. Bryce Young didn’t give us a lot to be optimistic about in 2023, but you don’t get drafted number one because you’re expected to be a bust. The Panthers have high hopes that he will show signs of developing into a legit franchise QB. This would go a long way for Legette and his value, but I just don’t see him being a worthwhile redraft pick. I’m willing to sit out and be wrong here.

The Name: Adonai Mitchell

NFL Draft Stats: WR11, pick 2.52 to the Indianapolis Colts

Fantasy Draft Stats: WR56, Overall 128, pick 11.08

Mitchell lands in an interesting spot with sophomore QB Anthony Richardson throwing him the ball behind veteran Michael Pittman and second year pro Josh Downs. Mitchell will have a shot at playing outside opposite Pittman in 3 wide receiver sets, but will have to earn targets away from him and Downs, who showed he can play at the NFL level, but may be better suited as a teams WR3. Richardson is a big question mark still, as he only played a handful of games. Richardson will surely use his legs to move the ball as well, whether it be by design or scrambling to keep a broken play alive. All these factors have me a bit down on the Colts rookie, though I do like the talent. I believe the back end of the 11^th is a fine place to take him as an upside swing.

The Name: Jermaine Burton

NFL Draft Stats: WR13, pick 3.80 by the Cincinnati Bengals

Fantasy Draft Stats: WR76, Overall 184, pick 16.04

Man, do I love Burton’s profile. He’s an elite talent that slid in the draft due to off field concerns. He’ll likely slide in your redraft leagues because he sits behind two legit WR1s in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. There was some chatter about Higgins being moved after he requested a trade, but those rumors died down when it was made known he will play out the season without a contract providing future security. Like Pearsall, if you want to take a flier on Burton with your last pick just in case Higgins does end up playing elsewhere in 2024, that’s fine. You’ll know instantly if he will have a bigger role. If he doesn’t, he can be dropped for another flier or the waiver hotness at the time. Burton shouldn’t be drafted otherwise.

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