From Hero to Zero: Second Half wRC+ Loss Leaders

  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on December 11, 2025 3:26 am by Anthony Kates | Published: December 11, 2025

    Nothing is more enjoyable in this little game of ours than when one (or more) of our draft picks has an absolutely fire start to the season. An incredible first half can set up and even better second half and turn a good season into a great one. Unfortunately, today, we will be breaking down the seasons of some players who had a great first half of the year and then had an absolutely dreadful second half.

    Pete Crow-Armstrong – OF – Cubs

    1st Half wRC+: 131
    2nd Half wRC+: 72
    wRC+ difference: -59

    I mean, was there really any other choice for the first name on the list? PCA had the second lowest wRC+ in the second half of the season out of all the players that finished inside the top 100 fantasy hitters at the end of the season (only Lawrence Butler was lower at 70). He had the largest drop in wRC+ from the first half to the second and, as you’ll see with the next few players, was one of just six players that dropped by 50 or more points.

    Now, why was that? Was it purely bad luck (1H BABIP: .286, 2H BABIP: .259)? Was it a skills issue (1H Con%: 73.1%, Chase%: 45%, SwStr%: 16.5%; 2H Con%: 73.5%, Chase%: 36.9%, SwStr%: 15.2%)? Or maybe, it was how he performed in different counts…

    WordPress Data Table Plugin

    A slight dip in pitcher’s counts, in neutral counts and then, holy cow, a SEVENTY-EIGHT POINT drop in hitter’s counts. How could that happen? How does his production suffer that much in situations that are advantageous to him and not the pitcher? Well, let’s see how he performed in those situations:

    WordPress Data Table Plugin

    So, we can tell that he was luckier in the first half than the second (league average BABIP is .300), hitting for more power more often. He swung-and-missed at nearly the same rate, but he swung more often in these counts in the second half. He had a 54.3% swing rate in the first half in hitter’s counts, but a 63.5% swing rate in the second half. So, even though the whiff rates were nearly equal, he was hurt more in the second half by the rate because he swung more often. And, because he hit for less power and less often, more of those fly balls turned into fly outs.

    Overall, his second half performance was more in line with how he had performed over his first 429 major league plate appearances, with his first half numbers representing some of the best numbers of his professional career. He had never demonstrated the type of power that he produced in the first half in any full season in the minor leagues (he had some ISO’s over .200, though he did have a .255 ISO in 117 PA in Triple-A in 2024, it was lower in the majors that year), but he had also never been attacked by pitcher’s like he has in his brief big league career (career 69.2% first pitch strike rate over 977 plate appearances; never a first pitch strike rate over 49.4% in the minor leagues).

    He is currently OF10 on Draft Champions draft boards, with an ADP of 29. That’s an expensive price to pay for someone who was virtually unplayable for the final two-plus months of the 2025 season. If he is not performing well in hitter’s counts, he is a below average offensive producer, producing value with his glove only. The price is wrong for PCA in 2026 and I will be avoiding him everywhere.

     

    James Wood – OF – Nationals

    1st Half wRC+: 150
    2nd Half wRC+: 93
    wRC+ difference: -57

    For Wood, figuring out what went wrong is much easier than it was with Crow-Armstrong.

    In the first half, he made more contact, whiffed less, barreled more balls and hit more fly balls.

    WordPress Data Table Plugin

    The huge drop off in fly balls in the second half wasn’t because he hit more grounders. Instead, his line drive rate jumped by 12.1 points, which is why he hit the same amount of doubles in the second half as he did in the first half, in 151 fewer plate appearances. The drop off in power can be explained away by the drop in quality contact and the drop in fly balls. Though, his 31 home runs on the year should be considered pretty impressive, since his launch angle was under seven degrees for the year (6.1 first half, 6.8 second half).

    The high strikeout rate shouldn’t be surprising, since Wood’s hit tool has always been his worst asset, though maintaining a dreadful strikeout for as long as he did (he had a 35% strikeout rate from May 23 through the end of the year) is a sign that if he doesn’t work on that hit tool, the fantasy ceiling may be lower than we think.

    Wood is an incredibly powerful hitter who could be a 40 to 50 home run hitter one day, but he will need to make some serious adjustments if he wants to reach his absolute ceiling. Vladimir Guerrero is able to find success with a poor launch angle and low fly ball rates thanks to a high batting average floor and hitting in the middle of a very talented Blue Jays lineup. The Nationals are not nearly as good as the Blue Jays and Wood’s batting average ceiling is much lower than Guerrero’s floor, so he has less room for error.

    I believe that Wood can make the necessary adjustments to recover from his poor second half (though his three best months of the season were the first three of the year, he had wRC+’s of 104 and 116 in August and September), we just need to see it on the field. Lifting the ball more and making more contact is Wood’s pathway to absolute superstardom. If he can’t do that, he will have to settle for merely being a star in a “small” market.

    He has an ADP of 28 and is the OF9 in Draft champions drafts and though he did have some second half struggles, I am willing to buy him at that price because I do believe his ceiling is achievable.

    CJ Abrams – SS – Nationals

    1st Half wRC+: 132
    2nd Half wRC+: 75
    wRC+ difference: -57

    Statistically speaking, 2025 was Abrams’ best fantasy season. He set career bests in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, line drive rate, barrel rate and ground ball rate. He tied his career best in stolen bases and slugging percentage, performed better against splitters and sliders than he ever had and was the tenth best offensive performer at shortstop in the big leagues.

    Yet, it felt a bit disappointing, no? At the All-Star break, Abrams was the third most productive shortstop. He was top-7 in home runs, runs, stolen bases and batting average, was tied with J.P. Crawford for the second best wRC+, had an .836 OPS and was one of just two shortstops that were hitting .280 or higher with a BABIP under .320 (so he also wasn’t extremely lucky on that front).

    And then what happened? His season kind of fell apart. His contact rate dropped nearly a full six points, his whiff rate jumped nearly four full points, his hard hit rate dropped and, though he hit more fly balls and less ground balls, he also hit fewer line drives (more line drives usually means more base hits). Now, his barrel rate went up and his fly ball rate went up, but his ISO dropped 46 points because he hit the ball with less authority.

    He had the same problems in 2024. His fly ball rate jumped in the second half, his line drive rate cratered (7.8% post-All-Star break), he walked less, struck out more, hit for less power, with a lower barrel and hard hit rate.

    It’s not a pattern yet, but it is something to consider. It hurts more in head-to-head leagues than it does in roto, though a drop off like the ones he has suffered does not help in any league.

    He is the SS7 in Draft Champions drafts so far, with an ADP of 49, after finishing as the ninth most valuable fantasy shortstop in 2025. Healthier seasons from Jeremy Pena and Zach Neto or a hotter start for Willy Adames would have pushed him lower down the end-of-year value list. At that cost, I am avoiding Abrams and grabbing Pena, Geraldo Perdomo or Trevor Story 45 or more picks later.

    Ceddane Rafaela – 2B/OF – Red Sox

    1st Half wRC+: 115
    2nd Half wRC+: 59
    wRC+ difference: -56

    Rafaela’s fantasy season was essentially defined by seven incredibly hot weeks and nineteen below-average weeks:

    First nine weeks of the season –  30 R, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 7 SB, .221 BA, .605 OPS, 64 wRC+

    May 27 through July 13 (7 weeks) – 26 R, 12 HR, 29 RBI, 6 SB, .329 BA, 1.017 OPS, 175 wRC+

    July 18 through the end of the season (10 weeks) – 29 R, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 7 SB, .218 BA, .587 OPS, 59 wRC+

    The Red Sox game on May 27 kicked off an eight game hit streak for Rafaela, including eight hits in the final four games of the month, after he had just nine hits over his previous 15 games. His statcast data was essentially elite for these seven weeks, with a 12.5% barrel rate, 49.2% hard hit rate and an average exit velocity of 91.3 MPH, with a 42% fly ball rate, 24% HR/FB, 78% contact rate and just a 12.9% whiff rate. Compare that to his numbers before (13.3% barrel, 45.9% hard hit, 90.5 MPH avgEV, 37.6% fly ball, 4% HR/FB, 73.3% contact, 16.1% whiff) and after (3.9% barrel, 26.3% hard hit, 84.5 MPH avgEV, 40.4% fly ball, 2.8% HR/FB, 75.3% contact, 13.9% whiff).

    And it’s not like this is the first time he has done this. Last year, from June 12 through the end of July he had a 134 wRC+, .842 OPS and a .318 BA. Prior? 59 wRC+, .595 OPS, .210 BA. After? 62 wRC+, .593 OPS, .232 BA.

    It was as if he gets possessed by Elly De La Cruz for seven-to-nine weeks of the year and Gabriel Arias the rest of the time.

    If it wasn’t for his elite defense, he would see far fewer at-bats and likely only be on deep league radars. As it stands, though, he finished the 2025 season as the #8 2B and #30 OF and is currently the 7th 2B drafted in Draft Champions leagues and the 35th OF.

    Based on his performances the past two seasons, his inconsistency and overall poor performance for 65% of the season, I will be avoiding unless I can get him much, much later than his current ADP of 147.


    Want to get access to the rest of Anthony’s article? You’ll need to have an MLB FantasyPass membership. Click here to learn more and sign up!
    Premium Access Required

    Come join us at SportsEthos by filling out an application by clicking here
    Click here to join us on Discord!
    Follow us on X by clicking here
    Follow us on Bluesky by clicking here
    Follow Anthony on X at @akfantasybb
    Follow Anthony on Bluesky at @akfantasybb.bsky.social

    December 11, 2025, 3:26 am