All right guys and gals it’s time to jump into the water. I’ve been waiting to put all the work I’ve been doing in my normal season long process… to actual work.

If you don’t know I’m basically on the injured reserve with thoracic outlet syndrome after years of typing at an ungodly rate and not knowing the dangers of such a thing. I had a major surgery in February to remove a rib that was crushing bunch of nerves…At any rate, I’ve been dealing with this for about five years now and I can more or less keep up with the knowledge flow throughout the year and put together a couple of content things — focusing on the big items that put cash in the pockets for all of us.

Anyway, I feel pretty good going into the postseason. I don’t even wanna say it but we’ve won every time I’ve stepped into a wagering role here…I’m happy to say conditions are good again this year. We’re going to be targeting 30% ROI in the playoff futures market with our pre-flop Finals plays.  Overall, we want to see if we can top last year’s 100 unit game on futures.

(Last Year’s Playoff Betting Journal link: Here)

***SCROLL TO THE BOTTOM FOR THE LATEST PLAYS AND JOURNAL ENTRIES***

Last Updated June 22, 11:23 a.m. 

To set this article up — this journal is my playoff betting journey, minus the game to game plays. So futures bets and series bets. It’s the type of thing that might have a different strategy from year to year. But before we dive into strategy let’s quickly acknowledge that playing a postseason in this manner is a constantly changing chessboard. Investing in the teams that you like and having early success, especially on underdogs that the public hasn’t caught up on yet, can give you ways to hedge into guaranteed profit or even leverage the guaranteed returns into huge upside in future plays.

This year, I’m not sure if I’m going to have time to do the type of team by team breakdown I have done in the past. If I do have that time I will come back and update the article. Other than that I’m going to put my commentary on my plays behind the paywall for WagerPass holders

Let’s talk a bit about how I am handling units and overall strategy. Typically units mean whatever your standard bet is. Here, we set a target number of units to bet over the course of the entire postseason and ultimately set a total budget for what we’re willing to put up for the entire playoffs. Because we could either experience an accelerated betting strategy as the playoffs progress — one where we want to hit the gas on how much cash we put in the furnace, or conversely one where small bets actually make more sense, whether in profit or loss scenarios, we have to remain flexible on that front.

Below you will see a loose framework and target unit distribution for each stage of the playoffs. Any team that we’re not investing in pre-flop I have listed as ‘out’ off to the right side. Basically if any of those teams keeps advancing toward an outcome, we’re going to have to hedge and otherwise recover later on down the road, probably at a loss.

In the chart below you will see that I have 500 units I am targeting to play and 200 of them going in pre-flop on futures. Another 225 units will be planned for the rest of the journal on futures plays, and 75 units for some series betting which I’ve found to be a pretty low volume marketplace.  Down at the bottom I show this distribution of what I’m targeting to play in each stage of the playoffs, as well as the series plays, and then I show you at the bottom what the total investment would be based on the size of unit you’re playing. We’ll jot down the new bets as we go. Again, this is a journal of what I will be playing.

I recommend to set a total budget for what you’re willing to put up for the entire playoffs and then divide that by 500 to get your per-unit play.

I’ve also shown what the ROI for your total investment would be in a segment (i.e. Finals futures, West futures, etc.) based on how much your units are worth ($1, $5, $10, $25).

I will update this journal throughout the playoffs and try to be as explanatory as possible but be warned the document can get kind of long and fairly messy. Apologies in advance and best of luck to all of us!

PRE-PLAYOFFS ANALYSIS

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