2025 Fantasy Hitter Breakouts: Was it real or was it a mirage?

  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on February 9, 2026 4:06 pm by Anthony Kates | Published: February 9, 2026

    Every year, fantasy managers are treated to breakout hitters from all across the league. Some of them were predicted to breakout based on previous metrics and analytics, minor league performance or scouted tools.

    Many others, though, seemingly pop up out of nowhere, with career years not many could have predicted. Sometimes it is a light-hitting middle infielder who cranks out more home runs in a season than he did over his first five professional seasons, like Geraldo Perdomo. Sometimes it’s an outfielder receiving a full time opportunity and making the most of it, a la Andy Pages.

    What we have to ask ourselves, though, are these breakouts real? Over the past few seasons, we’ve seen Brent Rooker breakout and sustain his success over multiple seasons and Jo Adell breakout and follow up with an even better season. On the other hand, Lane Thomas had a breakout 2023 and has been in a slide since, Jonah Heim had a career year in 2023 at 28 and now isn’t on a big league roster and Logan O’Hoppe was the number 10 fantasy catcher in his second season but then absolutely cratered last year.

    So today we are going to take a look at five breakout hitters from the 2025 season and try to determine whether the breakout is a sign of things to come or the visage of a dreamy oasis in the middle of a stark desert.

    Geraldo Perdomo – SS – Diamondbacks

    98-20-100-27-.290, 138 wRC+, .851 OPS, SS3

    Prior to hitting 20 home runs last season, Perdomo hit 19 over his four years in the minor leagues, then hit 14, combined, over his first 1420 big league plate appearances. He hit accomplished his total in 2025 in 720 total plate appearances. He’s never shown the ability to hit for that kind of power at any point in his career and the underlying metrics don’t support it being sustainable either.

    He did post career best in all of his statcast data, with an 87.6 avgEV, 6.2% barrel rate and 31.9% hard hit rate, but those numbers do not inspire confidence in repeating a 20 homer season. Over his past three seasons he has hit more fly balls than ground balls, but he criminally low bat speed generates more line drives and hits into the gap, which translates to doubles and triples, but not home runs.

    The steals, the batting average and the run production I believe he can replicate. But he is a long shot to hit 20 home runs or drive in even 90 batters in 2026.

    2025 Breakout verdict: Mirage (Home runs, RBI); Real (Batting average, runs, stolen bases)

    Hunter Goodman – C – Rockies

    73-31-91-1-.278, 118 wRC+, .843 OPS, C2

    If you take a look at Goodman’s minor league numbers, his breakout probably doesn’t seem too shocking. He posted a wRC+ of 120-plus at every single level and had back to back seasons with 34-plus home runs. Even after those two monster seasons, he was not considered one of the top prospects in the league, because of contact problems and poor defense. He had a small cup of coffee in 2023, with eight of his fourteen hits going for extra bases, before spending most of the 2024 season with the big league club, though he only logged 224 plate appearances that season, as he backed up Elias Diaz before the Rockies traded Diaz to the Padres. He was able to show off his power a little bit in 2024, posting a .227 ISO and hitting a home run roughly once every 17 plate appearances, but nothing that could have prepared fantasy managers and Rockies fans for his 2025 season.

    He was a much improved hitter last year, striking out less, walking more, hitting for more power, hitting the ball hard and more often, pulling the ball even more and elevating his line drive rate. He made slight improvements in his plate discipline, chasing fewer pitches (1.8 point drop) with a slightly lower swinging strike rate (16.3% vs 16.9% in 2024), but his contact rate stayed pretty minimal. His avgEV (90.8 MPH), barrel rate (12.8%) and hard hit rate (46.9%) were all in the 66th percentile or better, though he struggled to square up the ball (21.7% rate, 15th percentile) and his launch angle sweet-spot rate left a lot to be desired (32.8%, 27th percentile).

    All that being said, there’s not a better place for a power hitter with contact issues to breakout or call home than Denver, Colorado, where Goodman will find himself firmly entrenched in the middle of the lineup, behind fellow breakout hitter Mickey Moniak and ahead of projected breakout hitter Jordan Beck.

    2025 Breakout verdict: Real (Power production); Mirage (Batting average, OBP)


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    February 9, 2026, 4:06 pm