Hey Andrea!

For 9-cat leagues the top 3 this year is really a top 4. Almost everyone will have the following 4 players as their top four, in varying orders.

Anthony Davis
James Harden
Karl Anthony-Towns
Steph Curry

You can make an a solid case for any of these four to go number 1. It's one of the biggest cases of parity at the top that I can remember in the past 5 years.

Anthony Davis: He goes to the locker room more than any player in recent memory, however the case with him is pretty simple, if he's healthy, you basically win your league. He'll have more reason to play this year, as he and LeBron fight to win a championship. I think he's primed for a monster year.

James Harden: Monster in all categories and extremely durable. The questions for him this year are: 1) How much will his stats regress with Westbrook sharing the back court with him? 2) Houston management has said they will "load manage" Harden and Westy this year, but how much?

KAT: Arguably the most durable player available these days, and helps you in all cats.

Curry: Should be prime for an MVP-caliber year, and will have a lot to prove without KD and Klay around. We see the best from him when he has something to prove, and the Warriors have more to prove this year than they have in a while. Also, in the new load management era, Curry has said "hell naw," when asked whether he'll rest this year. For me, as much as I love his game and stat set, I trust him less than the other three on this list due to his oft-injured status, and even though he says he won't rest, after the heat on Steve Kerr and the GSW organization after KD tore his achilles, I could definitely see some load management for him. And if the Warriors fall out of the playoff picture, the odds for DNP-rest continue to grow.

Another factor to consider this year is that the elite Point Guard tier really drops off after the first couple rounds, so if you don't have one after round 2 or 3, you're going to be looking at guys like Eric Bledsoe, Jamal Murray, Dearron Fox as your no1 PG. This lends some extra value to Harden and Curry.

In the end, if you get a top 4 pick and can claim one of these four guys, you're in great shape. There's a noticeable drop off after that, and an even bigger one around pick 9.

Other players to consider in the first round:

Giannis (durability and health)
Paul George (shoulder surgeries are the question mark here)
Lillard (a bit boring, but one of the most durable)
Jokic (durability and triple double threat, out-of-position assists)
Brad Beal (durable, but shutdown/trade candidate leave questions)
Embiid (monster when healthy, but oft-injured)
Jrue Holiday (prime for a big year with AD gone, efficiency may drop)
LeBron (gonna be 35, but could be in for a strong season)

Hi Andrea
Love that your doing your scouting and prep work well ahead of time! It will give you a big advantage over the folks that wait until the last minute.
Please keep an eye out here at HoopBall for Bru's Top 150! That ranking is the best on the market, period!
Here are my top 3:
AD - His stats across the board are simply the best. I think he will have his best ever season in LA with Lebron.
KAT - Only player in Minny and will put up crazy numbers every night. He almost never misses a single game. He is the safest of all picks.
Giannis - His numbers are fantastic and from what I've read his 3 point show is showing strong signs of improvement. Can't miss with him even at #1.
The reason that Harden, Westy, George, Leonard didn't make my top 3 is because I need to see how these huge changes impact their numbers.
The other 2 guys, Curry and Jokic are very close as well.
Good luck!

Captain, I feel like we've been down this road, but you're just an incredible community member, man, and I needed to say it again. Do I have your email already? I think I do.

Thanks Dan, I really appreciate that! I’m just another degenerate trying to get his basketball fix haha.

I think you do, but if not I’m at beach.curt@gmail.com