I was offered Porzingis for Drummond and D. Russell in 12-man, 9-cat. I know Porzingis is the best player in the trade and probably the smart money, but I feel like I might be giving up too much. Hear me out.
Maybe I over analyze, but here's my thinking: first off, I don't know if Porzingis going from 18 ppg last season to 30 this year is sustainable. Also I'm a little concerned about this elbow bursitis he mentioned recently shutting him down for the season at some point. He says he can wait till after the season for an operation, but let's face it, NBA players arent doctors and are usually overly optimistic about injury seriousness and have unachievable timetables. At his current rate, can he really make it another 70 games?
On the other end we have Drummond who's as durable and consistent as they come (probably with the exception of his current FT%). He's having a big year. Then there's Russell who's in the best position for minutes and usage that he's had in his career. I expect career numbers from him pretty much across the board.
So then I look at the numbers. FG% is close to a wash as KP comes in at 51% on 21 attempts while the other two combine for about 49.5 on 26 attempts. FT% is a difference maker for KP being 86% on high volume attempts, where Drum is at a dropping 63% and Russell at 71%. Scoring edge to KP, but again not sure if it's sustainable, I could see Russell getting up to about 24 p/g while Drum's no slouch at 15. Where I take a decent hit would be in rebounds with Drummond's 15 (not even considering Russell here) vs KP's 7. Blocks and 3-balls the edge goes to KP currently, but Russ averaged 2 per game last year so I expect his current 1.3 to rise. Assists favor the duo at almost 9 per game vs KP's 1/g. A big edge in steals goes to the duo as well at 3.1 vs 0.4 for KP. Lastly KP wins the TO battle at 2.5 vs a combined 7.
So that's it. Am I over-thinking this? I feel like the likely response is, "Take the deal AND RUN. Whenever you can turn
a 4th and a 5th round picks into a 2nd round pick, you do it! Besides you can always pick up another guy from the wire to fill the empty space." .....but these two should finish the season with much better value than their ADPs by quite a bit, and my wire is completely barren.
Your counsel is appreciated. Please provide some justification for whichever side you take.
Without going into a ton of detail, I think the question comes down to ... do you trust KP can last the year? If so, I think you take the deal and fill out the extra roster slot in a manner that helps your club.
I'm not 100% confident in KP's health. This feels like a sell high, and 2 weeks from now you might get another KP offer from the same owner that asks for 15% less than this one. I suppose it's also a bit of a sell high on Drummond, but like you said, you knew what you were getting into with him.
I'd probably take the deal, but I also don't much care for FT punt guys...
His durability is still in question. However the same can be said, on a similar level, about Anthony Davis. In the end, I expect Drummond's FT% to decline, not as bad as last season's but still bad enough to hurt.
