Great insight!
Love the Dame, George & Beal calls
I think it's a little aggressive with Kemba & Holiday
Gobert is a little high but I get it
I want to see a little more from Trae & Collins before I get crazy with the young Hawks
Good stuff!!
I wrote an entire post and on my phone earlier today but lost it like a dummy.
Anyway.. I actually contemplated further about Jokic being a solid top 6.. and I'm not sure if he is. So here's my adjusted thoughts:
#6 - Kawhi - After listening to the Clippers press conference and also his interview with Rachel Nichols, we learned that he's planning to play the season "fully" and take load management as a game-to-game kind of thing. One thing I think many people underrate is how incredibly valuable Kawhi is even if he only plays 60 games - He finished #18 last season in total value, even with only 60 GP. Because of this, I'm a bit more encouraged to believe that he won't sit out every B2B and that he'll eclipse 70+ games, barring any actual injuries. If he could do that, I definitely can see him repeating what he did in 2016-2017 and finish in the top 4 per-game value with only 70-74 games played.
#7 - Dame - I love Dame, but I don't believe he has too much upside from here. If you picked him any earlier, I don't think you would get much value outta him. But out of all the guys from #6-12, I think Dame is the safest choice in terms of GP and solid production.
#8 - Jokic - He's never finished above #7 in any kind of 9 cat ranking, per-game or totals. He's still young and could improve more in PPG and definitely 3pg. He only made 1.0 3pg and shot only 30% from the arc this past year, as opposed to 2017-2018 where he shot 39.6% and 1.5 3pg on roughly the same 3PA. So I think you could get a bit of value getting him here at #8.
#9 - PG13 - The only concern with him is how many games he'll miss in the beginning of the season. If he misses a month, then that could bring his GP to 70-72 to start with. Then there could be load management that could lower that number. Otherwise, I think he's a very good pick at #9 after finishing top 3 in both per-game and totals rankings last season.
#10 - Beal - He finished #10 in totals, and #14 in per-game last season. I don't see too much room for improvement for him. Perhaps he can average a bit more PPG, and also get 2-3% upgrade in FT%, but I think this is a good spot for him at #10 going through another John Wall-less season. One slight concern to watch for is his potential to be traded, which will likely lower his value.
#11 - Butler - Jimmy jumped through a lotta hoops last season. From having to play with KAT and Wiggins, to being traded to a loaded Sixers roster. Now it seems he's gonna be the lone star in Miami and perhaps that could shoot him up back into the top 10 like he did back in Chicago.
#12 - Embiid - I can't drop him any further than this. Perhaps I'd pick him over Butler, but I really do not like his GP outlook. I already thought he would miss a good amount of games, but after listening to Elton Brand talk about how they'll make sure to manage Embiid during the season to be ready for the playoffs, I'm in more belief that he's gonna miss more games than originally thought. Perhaps he'll sit out most B2B games, which will be around 14 games which makes 68 GP total, and that could be enough to return value at #12.
#13 - LeBron - He's got a similar description to Embiid, but he also has a major problem with his FT%. Other than that, he's finished many times in the past in the top 10 and I think he might play with a small chip on his shoulder this year, given all the narratives surrounding him and his team.
#14 - Jrue - Given how much David Griffin has talked up Jrue and not having to give up the ball too much to AD, I can see Jrue going off this season. He's never really finished in the top 10, but he's come close - and if there was ever a year for him to do it, I think this will be the year. I can see a good increase in PPG/3PG, and possibly a slight increase in RPG/APG.
#15 - Kemba - He's basically played 80 games for the past 3 seasons and finished #13 in totals last season. I don't necessarily like this pick but I can't envision putting anyone else here without feeling any more hesitant about it.
#16 - Kyrie - A toss up as to what will happen to his GP total. If he does play over 70, he has potential to be top 10. The one big plus for him though is that he'll have the whole season to himself without KD there.
#17 - Drummond - Room for improvement isn't too high, but I think he's a solid pick here.
#18 - Gobert - Same deal with Gobert.
#19 - Draymond Green - My semi-dark horse pick. I don't believe anyone should pick him at #19, but I think he'll finish in the top 20 this season. No KD, no Klay, lack of forwards and centers - I just don't see how he won't be able to repeat his top 20 finish back in the 15-16 season.
#20 - Tobias Harris - I think he'll play a more prominent role on the Sixers, given their lack of shooting in the starting five. His strong durability also shoots him up here and having Embiid sit games bodes well with Tobias.
Great feedback!
I'm not as high on Butler,Jrue or Draymond.
I think Lebron is going to have a monster season!
The awesome thing is that this season is the most unpredictable of any that I can ever remember. Huge shifts of power.
Looking forward to Bru's Top 150!!!!!