Hi Hoopers,
We've got our draft coming up in the next few days and the LM has decided to get rid of the TO category from our 9-CAT 10 team league and replace it with 3P% instead. It's throwing me a bit about who to focus on (or punt from the get go) - especially since I'll be on the turn with the 10th Pick. Thoughts?
This type of stuff can toss you into a panic. BBM has a tool where you can alter a player's value based on those new categories. I suggest you use it. Trying to adjust for that on your own would require you to build player projections for every category, and most of us (excluding, y'know, those of us paid to do it) don't have that sort of time.
I ran the per game projections on BBM replacing TO with 3%. Predictably... efficient, high-volume 3pt shooters get a pretty big bump overall. Here are some highlights that jumped out at me right away:
Curry is #1 by an incredibly large margin. (#6 in traditional 9-cat)
Lowry is #12 (#23 before)
Klay is #18 (#32 before)
Seth Curry is #37 (#62 before)
Joe Ingles is #44 (#95 before)
JJ Redick is #45 (#91 before) - holy crap
Kyle Korver actually is on the radar at #145
Also, if you are drafting based on these projections, it looks like guys that will carry you in 3% but also provide help in any other cats (outside 3s made) seem to dry up pretty rapidly after the first 4-5 rounds.
Being on the turn, you could make the case for reaching on Klay with one of your picks since he provides the biggest impact in the 3% category outside Curry. It looks like he could anchor that cat for you as long as you steer clear of inefficient chuckers like Schroder. Then target one or two guys like Ingles, Allen Crabbe, or Redick (that would be my preferred order since Ingles gives you other cats) in mid-to-late rounds.
You could always just punt it and go with a chalk 8-cat drafting strategy, but I'd imagine others in your league are just as perplexed on how to value guys, so you could end up getting some really solid value picks for the settings and owning that category with a bit of prep.
Thanks Zach for running the numbers for me,
That really helps paint a picture of some of the guys I'll be looking at come draft night!!! That's a great advantage 🙂
Some of those movements I wouldn't have predicted, like Redick or Ingles! They'll be the new sleepers if I get the build right.
Cheers