EuroBasket 2025 Semi-Finals Preview: Only Four Remain

  • Last Updated on September 11, 2025 6:47 pm by André Lemos | Published: September 11, 2025

    And then there were four. After weeks of frantic pace, heart-stopping finishes and a few national heartbreaks, the EuroBasket semifinals are here. Two games, two tickets to the gold-medal match.

    Germany vs Finland: The Fairytale Meets the Juggernaut

    This is the first semifinal on Friday and if you like offense, buckle up. Both Germany and Finland thrive when the game gets fast, pushing in transition and turning live rebounds into quick-hitting buckets. Even in the half-court, both offenses are dangerous, though they go about it in very different ways.

    For Finland, everything orbits around Lauri Markkanen, who is averaging 25 points and 8 rebounds per game. He’s their anchor, their fulcrum and their bailout plan when plays stall. But beating Germany will require more than a one-man show: every Finnish player who steps on the court will need to chip in, just like they did against Georgia. The offense hums on constant motion, shooters flying off screens, cutting, relocating, beautiful when it flows. The problem? Germany’s length and switch-heavy defense is tailor-made to disrupt that kind of rhythm. Georgia slowed it down at times; Germany has the athletes to do it even more effectively. That’s when Markkanen has to put the cape on.

    On the other end, Germany’s approach is far less subtle. Dennis Schröder and Franz Wagner, both averaging over 20 per game, form the backbone of an attack that thrives on isolations, mismatches and raw shot creation. They’ll hunt weak links, force switches and go straight downhill. Finland’s defensive scheme will be stretched thin and the big question is how much Isaac Bonga can slow Markkanen on the other end. Germany has multiple bodies to throw at him, which is a luxury few teams enjoy.

    One under-discussed swing factor? The glass. Finland is the second-best offensive rebounding team among semifinalists (only Turkey is better), while Germany ranks dead last at cleaning up their own board, grabbing just 65.4% of available defensive rebounds. Every extra possession Finland gets nudges the scale closer to an upset. If Germany can’t control their defensive glass, this game could get uncomfortable for the favorites.

    Yes, these teams met already, and yes, Germany won by 30 in Tampere. But this is a very different game. Germany remains the favorite, deeper roster, superior overall talent, the experience of being world champions. But Finland is playing with house money, chasing history in their first-ever semifinal and that makes them dangerous. At the very least, expect this one to be closer, higher-scoring and more dramatic than their group-stage clash.

    Turkey vs Greece: Sengun vs Giannis, a Rivalry Renewed

    If Germany–Finland is about history and narrative, the second semifinal is pure star power. Alperen Sengun vs Giannis Antetokounmpo. Turkey vs Greece. A rivalry that already runs hot, now staged on the biggest platform EuroBasket has to offer.

    Turkey arrives undefeated, with four players averaging double figures, led by Sengun’s absurd 22-11-7 line. He’s been a puzzle no one has solved: a 6’11” hub running the offense with a blend of old-school post touches and new-school playmaking flair. Opponents can’t double him without leaving shooters, Turkey is hitting 44.6% of their threes and they can’t play him straight-up without watching him carve up defenses with passes. Greece coach Vassilis Spanoulis is the next to try, likely assigning Dinos Mitoglou as Sengun’s primary defender to keep Giannis free to roam as a help monster. That requires complete discipline: Turkey cuts hard, moves constantly and punishes lapses.

    But Turkey may have a problem: Cedi Osman’s injury. Ergin Ataman admitted Wednesday that if the game were today, Osman wouldn’t play. He’s dealing with swelling and pain and while he’s determined to suit up against Greece, he might not be himself. That’s no small loss, Osman has been shooting 52% from deep on nearly six attempts a night while also providing defense and secondary creation. Furkan Korkmaz would be the next man up, but replacing Osman’s two-way value is a tall order.

    Greece’s blueprint is different but just as simple: give Giannis the ball, let him bend the floor. He’s averaging 29.8 points on a ludicrous 70% from the field. Spanoulis uses him in multiple roles, deep post touches, as a roll man and most terrifyingly, in the open floor. Turkey’s mission: limit turnovers, because every live-ball mistake turns into a Giannis dunk.

    There’s one wild card to watch: Adem Bona. His defensive energy and physicality could be vital against Giannis, especially since no one really guards Giannis one-on-one. Bona may not stop him, but he can make him work.

    If there’s a Greek concern, it’s free throws. They’re shooting under 70% as a team, and in a game that profiles as tight wire-to-wire, that could be decisive.

    History leans toward Greece: they’ve won five straight over Turkey, though the last came back in 2013. But history also weighs heavy on both: Greece hasn’t reached the final since 2005, Turkey since 2001. Two decades of waiting, now riding on 40 minutes of basketball.

    The semifinal lineup has everything. The Finnish fairytale trying to outlast the German juggernaut. The Sengun-Giannis showdown that feels like a generational torch-passing moment. Elite shooters like Sasu Salin and Andreas Obst who could swing games in 90 seconds. And under all of it, two nations chasing history and two others trying to defend their standing at the top.

    Germany is the favorite. Turkey is the unbeaten. Greece has Giannis. Finland has the dream. Only two get to fight for gold.

     

    This article was written by the European Hoops team: André Lemos, João Caeiro, Tiago Cordeiro and Diogo Valente. Follow us on Twitter at @EthosEuroleague for more updates!

    September 11, 2025, 6:47 pm