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September 9, 2025, 5:17 amLast Updated on September 9, 2025 5:17 am by André Lemos | Published: September 9, 2025
EuroBasket 2025 Quarterfinal Preview
The EuroBasket 2025 quarterfinals are here and the stakes couldn’t be higher: four games, eight nations and history on the line. From Sengun’s dominance to Giannis chasing glory, from Markkanen’s historic run to Luka’s one-man brilliance, the matchups are packed with storylines. Let’s dive into each clash.
Turkey vs Poland
Turkey hasn’t reached the top four since 2001, while Poland shocked the world in 2022 with a semifinal run and now chases back-to-back appearances for the first time ever. Turkey has made five quarterfinals but only advanced once, on home soil in 2001.
Turkey’s offense has been elite (2nd in ORTG), driven by Alperen Sengun’s MVP-level play (22-10-6 on 62.5% FG). They shoot 45% from deep on over 25 attempts per game (what likely is an overachievement) and grind games at the 2nd-slowest pace of the remaining field, but they consistently generate quality looks. The spacing around Sengun allows Ataman’s team to control tempo and punish defensive lapses with corner shooting or backdoor cuts.
Poland’s double-engine attack, Jordan Loyd and Mateusz Ponitka, powers an otherwise disciplined group. They’re efficient too, but unlike Turkey, they thrive in transition. To win, they need to turn this into a track meet. That means getting stops, forcing turnovers, and hoping Turkey’s deliberate halfcourt execution can be rattled. If Turkey gets to set their defense every trip, Poland will be in trouble.
The Sengun problem is glaring. Poland doesn’t have a single defender who can cover him one-on-one. Doubling risks leaving Turkey’s shooters wide open; staying home means Sengun feasts in the paint. Milicic will need to mix coverages, rotate aggressively, and pray Sengun doesn’t pick them apart as a passer.
Rebounding is the hidden battle here. Turkey leads the field in offensive rebounding, while Poland secures just 66% on their own glass. That math is brutal: every extra Sengun-created possession becomes a dagger against a team trying to play faster. If Poland can’t hold their own on the boards, they’ll never get the pace they need.
Lithuania vs Greece
Lithuania has won four of their last six EuroBasket games against Greece, though Greece took the most recent meeting in 2017. Lithuania leads the tournament in rebounding (42.2 RPG); Greece has given up 40+ boards only once.
Lithuania is surging after knocking out Latvia in Riga, doubling down on their identity: pace, glass dominance, and long possessions. Injuries loom (Jokubaitis out, Normantas hobbled), but their next-man-up mentality has carried them this far. What’s most impressive is how seamlessly others have stepped up: Velicka providing bursts of creation, Sirvydis, Sedekerskis and Tubelis attacking mismatches and Valanciunas anchoring the glass with relentless force even if in a limited role when the team needs it.
Greece poses a unique nightmare: Giannis paired with a squad shooting 40.7% from three. The flaw? They hit just 66% at the line, leaving a crack in the door if games stay close. But with Giannis in attack mode, cracks rarely stay open. His rim pressure collapses defenses and creates clean looks for shooters, and opponents spend 40 minutes just trying to keep up with his energy.
Coach Kurtinaitis has been razor-sharp all tournament with tailored prep. Lithuania has bodies to throw at Giannis: Valanciunas for strength, Tubelis and Blazevic for versatility, but no team ever has “enough.” Containment will require all five defenders moving in sync, rotating and contesting without fouling. If Giannis dominates early, Lithuania may have to gamble harder than usual on closing shooters, which could decide the game.
Both sides are top three in DRTG among quarterfinalists, so expect stretches where buckets are scarce. The wild card: Lithuania’s perimeter shooting. They’ve hit just 27.8% from deep. If they can’t crack 30%, Greece likely advances. But if one or two shooters get hot it changes the math and forces Greece to guard honestly.
This matchup also carries the weight of tradition: two nations that have lived in the EuroBasket spotlight for decades. Whoever advances adds another chapter to a rivalry built on bruising defense, star power, and history.
Finland vs Georgia
History is guaranteed, neither nation has ever reached the semifinals. Georgia is here for the first time. Finland hasn’t been this close since finishing sixth in 1967.
The contrast couldn’t be sharper: EuroBasket’s fastest team versus its slowest, a three-point bombing offense versus a bruising post-up attack. This is basketball’s version of oil and water, and one side will impose its style.
Finland runs through Lauri Markkanen, averaging 26 ppg (3rd behind Giannis and Luka) while shouldering massive usage. Stop him and you stop Finland, but that’s no easy task. His ability to score from deep, midrange, and at the rim stretches defenses thin. What makes Finland dangerous is how Tuovi designs actions to free Markkanen off screens, in transition, or as the screener himself, there’s no easy coverage.
Georgia has the frontcourt to try. Mamukelashvili, Shengelia, and Bitadze form a bruising trio that can toggle between mobility and power. They’ll bang Markkanen, switch, force him into tough jumpers, and try to wear him down. Their issue is consistency: they’ve beaten Spain and France but also dropped winnable games, sometimes swinging between brilliance and chaos within a single night.
Georgia’s offense is volatile. Too often it slides into stagnant isolation, Shengelia posting, Mamu freelancing, Bitadze calling for touches. But when it clicks, their size and versatility overwhelm opponents. Against Finland’s undersized defense, they’ll look to pound the paint and turn the game into a halfcourt slugfest. If Georgia controls tempo, Finland could get dragged into uncomfortable territory.
This game has the feel of a coin flip. Finland’s pace and shooting can bury teams in a few minutes; Georgia’s size and physicality can smother them just as quickly. The winner not only moves on but writes history for their country.
Germany vs Slovenia
The headliner: Luka Doncic against the reigning world champions. Slovenia won EuroBasket in 2017 but crashed out here in 2022. Germany, chasing their first European crown, has never looked stronger.
Doncic has been historic: 34.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 7.2 apg, 3.2 spg, trailing only Nikos Galis in EuroBasket scoring pace. He leads Slovenia in every major stat while dragging them to four straight wins at nearly 93 points per game. Everything revolves around him: the stepbacks, the lobs, the foul-drawing. Slovenia doesn’t just run their offense through him; he is the offense.
Germany, on the other hand, looks nothing like a one-man team. They’ve been surgical, beating opponents by an average of 31 points while owning the top-ranked offense and defense. They can dominate in the halfcourt with Schröder orchestrating and Wagner attacking, or they can run you out of the gym in transition. Their depth is unmatched: seven players average at least 8.5 points, meaning they can hurt you from anywhere.
They’ve topped 100 points in four of six games, and even in off-shooting nights (85 vs Portugal), they bury opponents late with depth and defense. The scary part is how fresh they’ve looked, often blowing games open in third and fourth quarters after grinding opponents down.
Expect fireworks and tempo. But Slovenia carries the worst defense among quarterfinalists, and without consistent help for Luka, Germany’s balance will overwhelm them. For Slovenia to shock the world, Doncic needs to reach “God Mode” and still get meaningful contributions from shooters like Prepelic. Without that, Germany’s machine rolls on.
This matchup isn’t just about advancing. It’s a referendum on styles: Germany’s depth and balance against the singular brilliance of Luka Doncic.
This article was written by the European Hoops team, powered by João Caeiro, with contributions from Tiago Cordeiro, Diogo Valente and André Lemos. Follow us on Twitter at @EthosEuroleague for more updates!
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From the cliffs of Porto Moniz to the forests of Latvia. With a degree in business and a background in finance, I traded balance sheets for projection models, following a lifelong love of the game. I’ve played it, I’ve lived it and I’ve had the privilege of working inside team front offices at both the club and national level.
For over 20 years, I’ve also been immersed in the world of Fantasy Basketball, studying trends, finding edges and living the grind season after season. That passion has brought me here, to SportsEthos, where I’m honored to be part of our management team alongside the great Aaron Bruski. My mission is simple: help SportsEthos thrive as the premier home for Fantasy Sports and sports coverage. A place where users get real value and where every member of the team can sharpen their craft, find joy in the work and build something special that feels like home.
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