Last Updated on February 27, 2023 8:47 am by Stephen Michael | Published: February 17, 2023

With the All-Star break upon us, much of the attention in the world of fantasy basketball starts to turn to the playoffs. Not the NBA playoffs, but the fantasy postseason.

Many leagues hold their playoffs in the month of March, starting in Week 20 on March 6th, just a week-and-a-half after games resume. Many leagues have a 3-week playoff, wrapping up at the end of Week 22 on March 26th. This prevents any fantasy playoff games from taking place in April, when teams are known to rest players for the reality playoffs or a better chance in the lottery.

A look at the top-20 Points League players by per game average at the All-Star break yields a familiar list:

But when you factor in the NBA schedule over the three weeks of fantasy playoffs (Weeks 20-22), a different list starts to emerge. Luka Doncic is no longer at the top, getting knocked off by Joel Embiid and his 11 games over the 3 week span. Embiid also leapfrogs Nikola Jokic, who is hurt by having only 2 games in the final week, something that is sure to cause anxiety for his managers.

Also getting a big bump from his 11 games is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who vaults in value over Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Jayson Tatum. Stephen Curry, Ja Morant, and James Harden all find themselves inside the top-10 thanks to their 11 games in three weeks.

On the other end of the spectrum, Kevin Durant’s value takes a major hit, as his 9 games in Weeks 20-22 depress his potential for points and drops him from No. 9 to No. 20 on the list (the trade from Brooklyn to Phoenix resulted in a loss of 2 games over that span for Durant). Durant is the only player with a high enough per-game average to stick in the top-20 with only 9 games on the schedule, and obviously has a knee injury to worry about on top of the schedule.

Tyrese Haliburton and Julius Randle drop out of the top-20 when you factor in the number of games they have compared to their per-game average. Replacing them are De’Aaron Fox and Kristaps Porzingis, both of whom have 11 games in three weeks. Both Fox and Porzingis leap 10 places on the list to make it inside of the top-20.

Of course, this list assumes all players are healthy and will play in every game on the schedule, which we all know is never the case. Many of these players sit back-to-backs and many more miss games periodically with injury or illness.

It also assumes that they will maintain their averages, which is also not always the case. Players get hot and go cold throughout the year, and March is no exception. The NBA, and by extension our fantasy leagues, are unpredictable, but if you want to get an idea of a player’s potential points production in the 3 playoff weeks in March, then this chart will give you a look at who the top-20 players are and where they rank in relation to one another.

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Stephen Michael

F1 Analyst, SportsEthos

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