Week 11 SNF Fantasy Football Preview : DET vs. PHI

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  • SNF – Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles

    Point spread: DET +2.5 | PHI -2.5

    Moneyline: DET +126 | PHI -148

    Total: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5

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    Overview:

    Both these NFC juggernauts enter Week 11 atop their respective divisions, as the Detroit Lions are 6-3 rolling into Philadelphia to take the Eagles, who soar atop the conference at 7-2 through 10 weeks of the 2025 NFL season. The Eagles survived a MNF slugfest with the Packers last week, while the Lions are coming off a commanding win over Washington in Week 10. That game saw the return of Dan Campbell’s play calling for Detroit, which will be the case for the foreseeable future for the Lions. The Lions are pretty banged up defensively, and it was just announced that they will be without young playmaker TE Sam LaPorta for at least the next four weeks, as he spends a stint on injured reserve after coming away from Week 10 with a back injury. The Eagles are expected to get a lift from a returning C Cam Jurgens for this matchup, who’s missed time since suffering a knee injury vs. the Vikings last month. Philly’s GM Howie Roseman was dealing before the NFL trade deadline, and made numerous low-risk moves to bolster the team with depth made of true difference-makers. Down the stretch, they should be closer to the level of the defensive play the aided their Super Bowl run last season. Detroit is one of the league’s smartest and efficient on both sides of the ball, defensively it can be signaled by the league-low missed-tackle rate that the Lions D possesses.

    Quarterbacks:

    Jared Goff is sitting at the QB15 on the season in FPPG, hasn’t finished worse than the QB23 in a week this season, and has two top-5 fantasy finishes on the year. He is a boom-or-mid QB, depending on the game script and matchup the Lions find themselves up against. The team has been lethal through the air, and currently are the best team in the league in EPA/Pass play on the 2025 season. Both teams are generally middle of the pack in Defensive Pass Rate over Expected this season, so their offensive tendencies shouldn’t change much in this game. Given the loss of Sam LaPorta, also, things will be difficult for Goff to hit the boom end of his range of outcomes, as Philly allows the 11th-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs on the season. Goff can be mostly avoided for fantasy football purposes, but there’s a world where he still gets home. The Lions have been the best offense in the NFL when it comes to short-and-quick passes this season, but the Eagles have ranked really well defensively against this area of the field, and are only getting healthier and more talented. Jalen Hurts has been getting it done through the air more than the ground as of late, but he still sits in a tie with Drake Maye for the QB6 in FPPG this year. Since Week 4, Hurts has scored a rushing TD in just 1-of-6 games, and while he’s still averaging north of 20 FPPG in that span, he ranks as the QB10. A part of why Hurts has still been successful despite not getting into the end zone as much on the ground, is because of how well he’s been on deep shots this season, with the Eagles sitting at 3rd in the NFL in deep passing this season. Detroit plays man defense at a league-high rate this season, but Hurts has performed at a high level against that coverage in 2025. He ranks second in yards per attempt this season, and has scored 13 touchdowns and thrown just one interception against man this season. Detroit gives up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs on the season.

    Running Backs:

    Detroit’s two-headed backfield was more of a true drive-by-drive split last week, perhaps aligning with Dan Campbell retaining play calling duties for the offense in Week 10. While his play calling favored the passing game last week, Jahmyr Gibbs still finished as the RB3 overall on the week with a monster performance, and David Montgomery turned in a passable RB25 finish against the Commanders. The big key for the ground game in Detroit will be whether they can be as effective at rushing up the middle or not, with Jalen Carter and Zach Baun clogging up running lanes for Philly. Detroit ranks 3rd on inside carries on offense, while Philly has ranked 19th at stopping runs between the tackles this season. I could see the team shifting to the run more without Sam LaPorta on the field, as the other tight ends on the roster are much better blockers than they are at replicating what LaPorta brings to the football field as a pass-catcher. Gibbs should be locked in as an RB1 play, but likely isn’t hitting the 37-point performance he netted in Week 10 against Washington. Meanwhile, David Montgomery is going to be more of an unfavorable RB2/flex play this week, given the matchup and lower-than-usual implied point total for the Lions this week. On the other side of the ball, Saquon Barkley has struggled to reach the fantasy stardom he had all year in 2024, currently sitting as the RB13 in FPPG on the year. He should benefit a good bit from the return of Center Cam Jurgens making some room between the tackles, but he’s finished as the RB20 overall or worse in 3-of-4 outings. Given that Jalen Hurts is throwing the deep ball at a league-high rate, and doing so successfully, all the field for Barkley to rack up fantasy points has evaporated in 2025. He is still the same player, but the offensive environment combined with a banged-up OL has led to the descent back to Earth for Saquon from his 2024 OPoY title. Barkley is a hopeful, back end RB1 in this matchup.

    Wide Receivers: 


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