2026 Wild Card Playoff Preview: LAC @ NE

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  • By Jon Mosales

    Last Updated on January 8, 2026 12:00 pm by Jon Mosales | Published: January 8, 2026

    Wild Card Round –  LOs Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

    Point spread: LAC +3.5  | NE -3.5

    Moneyline: NE -192 | LAC +160

    Total: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5

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    Overview:

    It’s a little surprising that the Pats are favored by more than a FG as the Chargers have more experience, a great defense and the four-best receiving options in the game.  The Chargers haven’t allowed any team to score more than 20 points in the last five games and while the o-line is banged up, they have found a way all season and have the edge at the skill positions.  The Pats are at home though, might have the MVP and are the most efficient offense in the NFL.  The Pats were third in yards-per-game at 379.4 and first and yards-per-play at 6.5.  For comparison, the Chargers were 12th at 333.8 yards-per-game and 15th at 5.5 yards-per-play.   The Chargers have had a great pass defense all season and the Pats were the best rush defense for most of the year.  While this game is clearly Drake Maye vs. Justin Herbert, it’s all the intangibles in the middle that will likely decide who moves on.  The Chargers have one of the worst o-lines in the league and while they have two elite RBs, don’t expect them to pound the ball game.  Herbert is 0-2 with a 52.0 completion percentage, two touchdown passes and four interceptions in his playoff career.  You have to ride the Pats in this one until Herbert proves he can up his game in the playoffs.  This look likes a low scoring game where Maye just enough to put his team over the top.

    Quarterbacks:

    Justin Herbert has the experience, but he still hasn’t won a playoff game so how much is it really worth? Herbert finished as the QB10 in fantasy, but he also played hurt for the second half of the season.  It’s impossible to ignore how much more explosive the weapons are for Herbert and while Drake Maye was the QB2, he never faced a defense like the Chargers.  LA only allowed 16 passing TDs while forcing 19 INTs, so Maye will have to at his very best in his first playoff game to secure the win.  The key might be who has more time in the pocket as Herbert was sacked 54 times in 16 games while Maye was sacked 47 times in 17 games.  Expect NE to try and get to Herbert as much as possible, but NE only finished tied for 21st in the NFL with five other teams with 35.0 total sacks while the Chargers were 10th with 45.  The Patriots ranked seventh in third-down percentage (42.6) and No. 1 in fourth-down percentage (75 percent), while the Chargers ranked third in third-down percentage (46.8) and 18th in fourth-down percentage (56.3).  The edge has to go to Herbert and while Maye might end up being the better QB, trusting him in his first playoff game vs. an elite defense is a recipe for him to make some mistakes.

     

    Running Backs:

    While this game will be defined by the QBs, each team has two capable RBs who could break the game wide open.  Since returning on Dec. 8 against the Eagles after a seven-game absence, rookie RB Omarion Hampton averaged 57.8 yards per game and it’s not clear if he’s still 100% or if the terrible o-line is keeping him shackled.  The Pats are actually firing on all cylinders in the run game, and have averaged 168.6 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry over the last five games.  They finally unleashed TreVeyon Henderson and he is a threat to break one on every play.  The Chargers can be attacked on the ground, ranking 18th in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.4).  I expect the Pats to lean on the ground game early, especially with Maye taking off instead of testing the elite secondary.  That’s why this game screams under and while the Chargers won’t have as much success on the ground, they need to keep the NE defense off-kilter and give Herbert time with the play-action.  I like Henderson to have most touches for NE and if Hampton can’t get it going, they might pivot quickly to Kimani Vidal, who had four top-10 fantasy finishes this season.

     

    Wide Receivers: 


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    January 8, 2026, 12:00 pm