2026 Wild Card Playoff Preview: BUF @ JAC

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  • By Jon Mosales

    Last Updated on January 8, 2026 3:48 pm by Jon Mosales | Published: January 8, 2026

    Wild Card Round – BUFFALO Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars

    Point spread: BUF -1.5  | JAC +1.5

    Moneyline: BUF -118 | JAC -102

    Total: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5

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    Overview:

    It’s crazy that the Jags are hosting the Bills, but hopefully it will make it a more competitive game.  The Jags might be the hottest team in the league, winning eight straight and peaking at the perfect time.  The Bills finished the regular season 12-5 and led by Josh Allen, the Bills’ offense ranks sixth in points per game this season, while the defense ranks 13th in scoring.  Allen is the best player in the game and it’s not even close, but the Jags might be a more complete team with the three best WRs in the contest.  The Jags somehow allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL (1455) and that goes h2h with what the Bills do best.  The Bills led the league in rushing yards (2714), so it’s a classic battle of strength vs. strength.  It’s not like the Jags were getting roasted in the secondary either, allowing only 25 passing TDs and forcing 22 INTs.  You might not imagine the Jags as an elite defensive unit, but they have a great formula in stopping the run and creating TOs.  The path has never been more wide open for the Bills and it would be truly shocking not to seem advance in what could the lone shootout of the playoffs.

    Quarterbacks:

    This might look like a massive mismatch on paper and while it is, it’s not the the Grand Canyon.  Trevor Lawrence finished the season as the QB1, QB2, QB5 and QB3 and he’s peaking at the perfect moment.  Now, Lawrence gets to play at home and vs. a BUF pass defense that allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL.  What a game of extremes.  As great as both defenses appear to be, this should be a high-scoring game as the Jags have scored 30+ points in five of the last eight games.  Expect the Jags to lean on the ground game, but that also means Lawrence as he had four rushing TDs in the last four games.  The Jags can be great (tied for 3rd in TDs in Weeks 13-16, 2025) but also prone to costly turnovers and failed conversions in critical moments, highlighting a need for greater precision.  Allen is going to outplay Lawrence in this one, but if Lawrence can just avoid making a catastrophic mistake and capitalize in the red zone, the Jags have a fighting chance.  Josh Allen is going to beast regardless of what defense is in front of him and the stout JAC rush defense has made teams pass first at the highest rate in the league.  Good QBs don’t wilt in the playoffs and great QBs find another level.  This is the best chance Allen has had to win a Super Bowl and regardless of his lack of receiving weapons, he will do whatever it takes.

     

    Running Backs:

    This is a more balanced battle as Travis Etienne was one of the best fantasy values all season.  Now he gets one of the best matchups in all of football.  The Bills simply can’t stop the run. They rank 25th in opponent rush success rate, 31st in opponent rush EPA, and 30th in opponent yards per carry, allowing 5.1 yards per rush.  They got gashed by elite RBs all season and while Etienne was the RB10, he only averaged 4.3 YPC and hasn’t rushed for over 100 yards since Week 4.  Etienne probably won’t decide the game, but look for him to get close to 20+ touches and if he can consistently move the chains and keep Allen off the field, the Jags will take that win.  On the other side, James Cook has solidified himself as one of the best RBs in all of football.  He led the league in rushing yards (1621) and 5.2 YPC and was the driving force of the offense all season.  Allen might be the best player, but Cook picked up the slack when the receivers didn’t show up.  The real question is what can he do vs. an elite rush defense because if he can’t break through, all the pressure will be on Allen.  Cook is the better player, but look for Etienne to have the better game.

     

    Wide Receivers: 


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    January 8, 2026, 3:48 pm