2025 Week 9 TNF Fantasy Football Preview : BAL @ MIA

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  • By Jon Mosales

    Last Updated on October 30, 2025 11:53 am by Jon Mosales | Published: October 30, 2025

    TNF – Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins

    Point spread: BAL-7.5 | MIA +7.5

    Moneyline: BAL -425 | MIA +350

    Total: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5

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    Overview:

    On paper this game looks like a TNF throwaway non-classic, but if we dig a little deeper, it’s actually got everything you’d want.  Two struggling teams desperate for a win and one superstar returning to action.  Both defenses have been terrible so far and this had shootout written all over it.  The Dolphins actually held out ATL in check last week and forced Bijan Robinson into this worst game of the season, but that’s a mirage and Derrick Henry is going to go wild in this one.  MIA gives up fantasy points to RBs at a top-five rate and while the short week is never ideal for RBs, bringing Lamar Jackson into the fold is going to give this offense a massive jolt.  Baltimore is trying to become the fifth team since the merger to make the playoffs despite starting 1-5, so every game is a playoff game.  The Dolphins were one loss away from throwing in the towel and clearing house, but they got a one-game repreive as they went against Kirk Cousins.  Like many terrible teams, MIA is much better at home and the over has hit in nine straight MIA home games while BAL has gone over in six of their last seven.

    Quarterbacks:

    Lamar Jackson says he’s 100% and even if he’s 95%, he’s still the best fantasy start in the game.  He hasn’t been running as much this season, but that’s fine vs. a MIA defense that gives up fantasy points to QB at a top-10 rate.  Jackson has a great shot at being the QB1 this week as long as he is able to run.  I’d be terrified to play against him this week as this game could get out of control scoring-wise.  Neither team trusts thier defense, so there will be no easing up in the second half and honestly, I could see BAL scoring 40+ easy. Tua Tagovailoa is a little more complicated.  Sure, we love backing him at home, but not vs. good teams and we’re not quite sure which BAL team is with us.  Tua posted his best week vs. an elite defense on the road, so no one predicted that and this is a must easier test.  I actually like Tua in this spot and would start him in 1QB leagues as the BAL defense is healthier, but is vulnerable on the road in a short week and I think BAL will score at will, so Tua should be chasing points in the second half, feeding Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane on screen passes.

    Running Backs:

    Derrick Henry vs. De’Von Achane is the perfect contrast in styles.  Henry is going to bruise and bang all night until the wall comes down and with MIA vulnerable to the run, Henry should get there eventually, but he might not get his 20+ carries with Jackson back under center and a short week.  The MIA rush defense allowed 200 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle, 124 to Kimani Vidal, and three touchdowns to Quinshin Judkins, so the ceiling is the moon for Henry, especially if the Ravens jump out to an early lead.  The only fear is Henry being so old and on a short week with a road game, it’s a minor fear, but one nonetheless.  Achane also has a very nice spot because he will be involved no matter the game script.  The Ravens are allowing the fourth most fantasy points to the RB position on the season and aren’t fast enough to bottle up Achane once he gets going.  If I had to pick between the two, I think I would lean Achane just because he’s younger and at home, but each RB is a top-five play at worst this week.

     

    Wide Receivers: 


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    October 30, 2025, 11:16 am