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September 11, 2025, 12:45 pm
Last Updated on September 11, 2025 12:47 pm by Jon Mosales | Published: September 11, 2025
TNF – Washington Commanders @ Green Bay Packers
Point spread: WAS +3.5 | GB -3.5
Moneyline: WAS +150 | GB -175
Total: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
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Overview:
Both these teams escaped Week 1 with a win, but GB beating DET is 10 times more impressive than WAS beating the Giants. The Packers look like the most complete team in the NFL and once Micah Parsons gets ramped up, there might be no looking back. Jordan Love looked right at home in Week 1 after having surgery on this non-throwing thumb this summer and didn’t suffer a single sack. He only threw the ball 22 times as GB was comfortably in the lead all game, but I expect the offense to open up in Week 2. The real surprise is Jayden Reed, playing on a Jones fracture and leading the team in targets and scoring a TD. The WAS defense held up vs. the Giants and didn’t allow a TD, but that is a mirage more than anything. I expect the GB to move the ball at will and WAS to have to throw to stay in the game. Matt LaFleur is 12-0 ATS in Week 2 and 3. This will be a great test for Jayden Daniels as he looks ready to take the next leap. Adding Deebo Samuels has proved to a wise addition as he led the team in targets with 10 and had more than double the yards of any other receiver. The rookie RB Jacory Croskett-Merritt also showed out with 82 rushing yards and he might be the rookie RB to roster for the immediate future. The only caveat is we saw RBs struggle on TNF all season a year ago.
Quarterbacks:
Jordan Love was the QB18 in Week 1, but he played a flawless game and it was only DET’s lack of ability to mount a comeback that kept him from making a top-10 run. The Commanders have a worse defense than DET, but will the offense be able to go score for score. The GB defense might be too strong especially at home for Love to really open it up. The Packers love to run the ball and had the 3rd highest rush/pass splits last season. The passing game could be deadly, but we need to see rookie WR Matthew Golden do it first. He has as much as hype as any rookie WR minus Emeka Egbuka, but only had two receptions for 16 yards. He will be the key to Love unlocking his true fantasy potential. Love is a decent QB1 option this week because he’s at home and WAS has a below average defense, but while the floor is locked, the ceiling is tied to WAS’s ability to score. Jayden Daniels is clearly a must-start QB this week, but he’s got a shot as the QB1 slot if everything breaks right. He was only the QB13 in Week 1, but he showed he’s going to be aggressive running the ball again and now has a legit WR2 in Deebo. Daniels will likely be playing catchup all game and that bodes well for him throwing more than the 30 passes he did in Week 1. He rushed the ball 11 times, so if he’s locked in, he could rack up close to 400 yards. I expect Terry McLaurin to have a bounce-back game after signing a big deal this summer and in Week 1 only having two grabs for 27 yards. A great QB can break a great defense and we don’t know how many snaps Micah Parsons will be on the field for.
Running Backs:
Josh Jacobs was the RB14 in Week 1 vs. an elite run defense and now he gets WAS which gave up the third-most rushing yards last season. Jacobs should run wild in this one and with GB as 3.5 favorites, he could see 30+ touches in a an ideal game-script situation. Jacobs is one of the best RB options this week and I bet he finishes as a top-five RB in Week 2. The Commanders unleashed Croskey-Merritt as he had four more carries than Austin Ekeler, but only one target. GB was elite vs. the run in Week 1, keeping Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to each under 30 rushing yards. The Packers will be focused on stopping Daniels from running, which could open the lanes for JCR, but I don’t love his matchup this week. He was RB13 last week, but I don’t see him as a top-20 RBs this week. I think he’s in a great spot this season, but if WAS is down early, expect Austin Ekeler to handle the passing downs which could be first and second. I think Ekeler could have more fantasy points than JCR this week simply due to pass-catching volume as JCR only had one target.
Wide Receivers:
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