Last Updated on February 24, 2022 8:00 pm by Mike Passador | Published: February 24, 2022

In the 16 years I’ve been writing about this game there have been a handful of instances that I’ve used the title “Changing of the Guard,” and that’s been the case during key landmark moments when the landscape of the league changes and torches are passed.

The peace and quiet that the All-Star Break provided, and no, I’m not talking about the cricket-chirping buzz that overpowered the air during that forgettable slam-dunk contest, was able to give us all a breather; me especially. The calm got me thinking and some of those thoughts pointed in one particular direction, and that’s next season’s draft.

I constantly like thinking about fantasy basketball and am always, always working on my game, asking myself, “What can I do better?” or “Where did I make a mistake?” And it’s through this process of evaluation that I learn and get better as I refine my assessment of players and my strategies.

Upon some reflection of the season so far, it’s been quite clear to my mind that 2021-22 had a huge shift. There were so many players who managed to make significant leaps. I noticed that a lot of these major movers happened to be young, up-and-coming guards, point guards, specifically.

Guys like Fred VanVleet and Dejounte Murray cracked the top-10 of the rankings, Trae Young displayed some improved maturity in his game, LaMelo Ball lived up to the increased expectations, mostly, while Ja Morant, Tyrese Haliburton and Darius Garland exceeded expectations on so many levels. And though they are still rookies, Cade Cunningham and Josh Giddey showed a lot of promise in their first trip around the block.

The rise of VanVleet, Murray, Haliburton, et al can and should be considered timely. It’s also this season that we’ve seen some previously reliable blue-chip guards fall off, whether it be through actual drops in production or injuries that have caught up with them – James Harden, Damian Lillard and Bradley Beal come to mind here.

Come the 2022-23 fantasy draft it’s not too far off to expect more than a few managers gravitate more towards say a Fred VanVleet over a Damian Lillard, given the same spot in the draft order. As of the writing of this article, VanVleet is the eighth-best player in 9-cat rankings, which is pretty close to Lillard’s #7 ADP in this season’s draft. In 2022-23, who would people choose at a similar spot: VanVleet, who just touched a new fantasy high, or Dame, who’s been a rock-solid top-10, top-12 guy for so long?

Let’s take a look at VanVleet’s numbers so far this season juxtaposed with what Lillard posted in 2020-21, which allowed him to be pegged at his ADP.

As you can see, they’re quite comparable in many ways. There are some clear differences, however, as Lillard clearly has the edge in terms of shooting accuracy from the field while VanVleet is the far better source of steals.

Lillard’s been a disappointment this season due to his abdominal injury, which was severe enough for him to require surgery that’s sidelined him for a quarter of the season already. Of course, once he’s finally healthy and good to go, there’s always a good chance that he’ll be able to come back and produce numbers close to what he was able to deliver in 2020-21.

Lillard is 30, while FVV is 27. Age isn’t the only factor though, and VanVleet has had his fair share of injury-riddled seasons himself. The only season he’s played 75 games or more in a season was in 2018. Lillard, on the other hand, has done it three times: in 2016, 2017, where he played 75 games, and then again in 2019, where he played 80 games.

So who will you pick in the 7-10 range in 2022-23? Frankly, I’m probably leaning towards picking VanVleet at that spot even with Lillard still being on the board.

Now, there’s Dejounte Murray, who has just been crazy-good this season. Insanely good. We’re talking a nightly triple-double threat kind of good, not unlike the way Nikola Jokic is – and that’s quite the company he’s keeping. It’s almost impossible not to picture taking Murray in the top-10 next season. That’s so amazing considering his ADP of 51 heading into this season. He made a huge jump, yes, but what’s even crazier still is that he’s probably still got some room to grow. He can get better and this recently-minted All-Star is committed to taking his game to another level as he wants to be one of the faces to represent the new NBA.

Murray is one of the best rebounding guards in the game and his improved passing has just put together a stat set that’s not difficult to fall in love with. We’re talking about 19,9 PPG, 1.3 3PG, 8.3 RPG, 9.3 APG, 2.0 SPG, 0.3 BPG and 2.4 TO on 45.9% FG and 70.9% FT. As you can see he’s elite in three categories (REB, AST, STL) with his free throw shooting being the only real wrinkle in what’s otherwise a near-complete, near-perfect guard stat set.

Out of all the names listed previously, Ja Morant has probably gotten one of the biggest increases in real-life fandom this season. He’s just fun to watch. He’s also now got a fantasy game to match. From a finish in 2020-21 outside of the top-200, Morant’s gone through a whirlwind of a breakout season so far, currently clocking in with top-40 value.

The appeal and game are now more closely matched, so it’s well within the realm of possibility to imagine him being taken closer to top-30 or even the top-25 come the 2022-23 draft. It’s hard to argue with his current averages of 26.8 PPG, 1.5 3PG, 5.9 RPG, 6.9 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 3.4 TO on 49.4% FG and 75.5% FT. He was able to see improvements across the board and it’s been truly a sight to behold as he’s taken ownership of his newfound and newly acknowledged (by the league and the world-at-large) stardom. His star has just begun to rise and just like some of the other guys we’ve discussed so far, he still has room to grow and reach new heights as his game continues to mature, hopefully like a fine wine.

Last but not the least, there’s Tyrese Haliburton, whom I consider to be one of my favorites out of this crop of young rising stars. He was good as a King, flashing a nice stat set that was just oozing with “roto” goodness. Then the trade with the Pacers happened. Boom! He got even better. He’s currently a top-25 player on the season, but that’s still pretty weighed down by some quiet early days in Sacramento. He, to me, feels like the “new” Chris Paul. I know it’s not quite the same, especially since no one’s really going to be able to fill those Point-God-sized shoes, but Haliburton just has that game that combines efficiency, passing and good great defense – so, you can get how I came up with the allusion.

Four Pacer games is a small sample size, I know, and numbers like his 3s and even steals should see a regression closer to his averages as a Kings player. That said, we should account for some realistically expected growth next season.

For the last couple of seasons and change, Paul has managed to exceed expectations, denying naysayers the satisfaction any decline due to age and wear and tear. This season’s thumb avulsion fracture was just an unfortunate accident. The hamstring issues that used to haunt him in his days in Houston have been well-managed by the Suns’ amazing medical and training staff, arguably one of the best in the league (having been able to resurrect the fantasy values of guys like Grant Hill and Channing Frye). Since joining the Suns, Paul has managed to wind up falling inside of the top-20, age, wear and tear notwithstanding.

Come the second round of next season’s drafts, I’d expect Haliburton to be an early grab. His outlook as the new face of the rebuilding Pacers is just the perfect setup for fantasy greatness. He and Dejounte Murray will be the new go-to options for a leg up in that assists-and-steals package. Mwah!

So what does this all mean for next season?

Well, for starters, I’ve been working on improving my H2H strategy, an area that’s fallen off over the last few years. I used to just kill it in that format. I’ve strayed far into the value-picking rabbit hole and the part of me that used to love player combos and purposeful reaching in order to put together a cohesive and well-planed, well-strategized build has taken a backseat for far too long.

This coming season, I’m going to be devoting a lot more attention to my head-to-head strategies and one major mental note I’ve already made is that “2022-23 will be the season of the small-ball strat.”

Thanks to the rise of so many guards who’ve all busted their way into the top-50 rankings, small-ball will be one of the most popular builds, whether intended or not. What characterizes a small-ball build? Well to the people who are reading this and are still relatively new to the game of fantasy basketball, it’s building your team around categories that guards (smaller players) excel in. Those are normally, points, 3s, FT%, assists and steals, with assists being its main cornerstone.

As you can see from this list of players who’ve been mentioned in the article so far, there are going to be a lot of assists to go around in the early rounds of drafts next season. While the rankings are going to be guard-heavy, it doesn’t mean that small-ball will be the only way to go. It will definitely be popular so whether you want to jump on that bandwagon or draft something else, going against the grain, it’s good to be aware and conscious about its popularity so you can plan ahead and act accordingly. I for one will be going that route in at least one league or two. This new crop of young guards will definitely make this interesting in 2022-23. The torch has officially been passed.

That’s it for now. Thanks for sitting in with me as I jot down my thoughts and do what I love doing the most in this industry, which is to prepare for fantasy drafts and talk about said preparations.

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Erik Ong

Erik is a fantasy basketball expert from the Philippines who has been writing about his beloved fantasy sport since 2007. He loves multi-cat guys, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s skyhook, eating Peking duck, and not-too-long walks on the beach; but not necessarily in that order. Catch him on Twitter: @FantasyHoopla

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