Mostly lucky but somewhat wise/savvy:

#5 Texans: you know, from Texas

The Houston Texans? Yeah. You can call it total blind luck, or you can say they just made the right move at every single turn. I didn’t expect them to be this high on the list considering they have accomplished nothing aside from some trophies last year, making JJ Watt a Hall of Famer, and handling the Watson situation brilliantly. Let’s go over the tape, and let me craft the narrative to support my case for them being in the top five:

2016: they take Will Fuller in the first round and he’s great, but often injured. Then they lose a bunch, no big deal, tank until you get the guy.

2017: they take Deshaun Watson as well as D’Onta Foreman. Great players, injuries for sure, but still there’s logic to what they’re doing.

2018: they take Justin Reid in the third round (their first selection of that draft) and don’t seem all that special. But at least JJ Watt cleans up!

2019: they win a playoff game, and the future looks bright! Hope nothing crazy happens in the world…

2020: a pandemic strikes and Bill O’Brien firesales DeAndre Hopkins for a garbage return. Not great, Bill!

Okay, stay with me here, now comes the upswing.

2021: the team brings in Nick Caserio, and the Watson drama begins. A trade request is made, a scandal breaks out, and he’s public enemy number one for preying on massage parlor attendants. But they get Davis Mills and Nico Collins in the 3rd round, which is the start of something, at the very least.

2022: the team gets a ridiculous haul for Watson from Cleveland. Just cleans up, and gets rid of a guy who should be in jail. They did the morally correct thing AND the right thing for their team and the future. He sucks now, that was an all-time coup for getting rid of a sexual predator. They then draft Derek Stingley Jr. and Dameon Pierce, and while most people don’t know it, they’re about to become the luckiest sons of guns in all of the NFL.

2023: DeMeco Ryans is hired as the new head coach and NOT Josh McCown, thank goodness, bullet dodged. The Lovie Smith season has a silver lining to it, as CJ Stroud falls into their laps alongside Will Anderson, Tank Dell, and some Rookie of the Year awards to boot. Haven’t seen that happen since… well, my Jets did it. The Texans win a playoff game, and Stroud sets the benchmark for all rookie QBs going forward; come out of the gate on fire, which is now the expectation every fan has for their “franchise savior.” Good luck with that shit, everyone else!

I have no clue who they took in the 2024 draft, or if any of them will work out, but they made a flurry of free agency moves that look like my upcoming fantasy football draft cheat sheet. Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, Noah Brown, Jeff Okudah, and Dalton Schultz round out the roster now, supporting Stroud. Are they one of the smartest teams in the league? Yeah, I think so… but who cares, they’re the luckiest! So it all counts regardless. It’s better to be lucky than be good, never forget that.

The question remains: can they continue to do something with this upward momentum? Can they win two playoff games this year? Should we expect the ceiling to be this high for them going forward? They are a scary team, and super young, which means they’re already better off than most of the teams in the league, who were on shaky ground to begin with. Despite all logic and reason, hiring Greg Grissom and Nick Caserio (former Patriots exec) turned out to be a boon, but don’t tell me they used facts or foresight when drafting this team.

Now, here’s a secret nobody wants to tell people but it’s true for all industries and professions: nobody knows anything. It’s an old Hollywood adage since humans are incredibly bad at predicting the future. So if you want to know just how little everyone on the face of the earth knows, here is ESPN’s Bill Barnwell (who I really like and respect!) writing about the Texans having a bottom-five offense and some of the worst weapons in the league… right before they went onto have a smash hit of a season and won a playoff game with a rookie QB and head coach!

“The hope will yet again be for the young guys to break through. Nico Collins has averaged just under 39 receiving yards per game the past two seasons, despite playing a majority of the snaps in his appearances. Quarterback play hasn’t helped, but he has one game over 70 receiving yards. Third-round rookie Tank Dell, meanwhile, will need to prove his 5-foot-8 frame can take regular offensive snaps at the highest level. Dell’s primary role in 2023 likely will be on punt returns. The most important player might be John Metchie III, who missed all of his rookie season after being diagnosed with leukemia. The Texans sent three picks to the Browns to move up for Metchie in the second round of the 2022 draft, suggesting that Caserio saw him as a future starting wide receiver. Metchie returned to the team this offseason, only to suffer a hamstring injury. Everybody (myself included) is rooting for the 22-year-old to make a full comeback and contribute, but it’s also fair to expect him to require time as he ramps back up to the rigors of football.”

LMAO what a scam the draft industrial complex is. Who the fuck is John Metchie III? None of that shit mattered at all! Ignore everything and just watch the games from now on, no amount of analysis will ever compensate for the massive amount of randomness and luck involved with life. Not worth it. Go in blind on your fantasy draft, won’t matter. Unless you knew Puka Nacua would be one of the best WRs in the league, then by all means tell me your thoughts on the lottery numbers tomorrow.

Read more here!

Smartest teams with recent rings to show for it:
1 – Chiefs
2 – Rams
3 – Eagles

Mostly lucky but somewhat wise/savvy:
4 – Ravens