Vikings (-3) @ Rams (+3)

O/U 46.5

Important notes for Vikings:

The Vikings finally lost and the world is right again.  Well, not really.  They are hopefully getting star TE TJ Hockenson back and while he won’t be elite right away, it’s just another arrow in the quiver for Sam Darnold.  The Vikings have dominated on both sides of the ball, but are a bit of paper tiger as the defense relies on blitzing and the offense on Darnold.  Neither are viable long term and the defense has already shown cracks as they have given up 389, 244, and 280 passing yards over the last three games.  That is all background noise as this game is all about Justin Jefferson vs. Cooper Kupp.  The Vikings are No. 1 in EPA allowed per handoff and while Jahmyr Gibbs sliced and diced last week, expect the Rams to lean on Matt Stafford’s arm in this one as we have seen what happens to bell cow RBs on short weeks.  They go down.

Important notes for the Rams:

The Kupp is full once again and the Rams are going to be very dangerous over the next stretch as long as they don’t make any major trades.  The Rams are 2-4, but without Kupp and Puka Nacua for the majority of the season, it could be worse and a win here and they are back in the swing of things.  HC Sean McVay is sneaky good on TNF and the Rams went 6-2 in Thursday night games during his first seven seasons.  The question is whether MIN can stop Kyren Williams and can Stafford rebound after only throwing for 154 yards last week, the lowest during his LA tenure.  MIN is going to blitz a lot and expect LA to counter with quick hits to Kupp all night.  This game is going to be fun and McVay loves attacking a defense as lopsided as MIN.

The QBs: Darnold was outplaying everyone through four weeks with 11 passing TDs, but he only has one over the last two games.  That should remedy itself tonight, but he’s also thrown an INT in every game except one.  The schedule has been brutal and he now gets an LA defense that is better in real life than on paper, but still a break compared to the Niners, Texans, Jets and Lions.  He’s got as many elite weapons as any QB in the league and there is no reason not to keep trotting him out there each week for fantasy.  It sounds crazy, but you have to start him over Patrick Mahomes this week.  Stafford has only three passing TDs on the season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.  He and Kupp have a mind-meld and vs. the 30th ranked pass defense, expect it to be humming from the jump.  He’s not a must-start for fantasy, but this matchup should propel him up several spots.  The Rams need a win to stay in the hunt and Kupp probably would have played last week if there wasn’t short-week the following game.  I’m expecting 260 passing yards and two TDs in this game.

The RBs :  I had to eat my words early last week as I said Aaron Jones was a must-fade because of the matchup and his hamstring.  He showed no ill effects and ran for the game’s first score.  This is a great matchup for him, but hamstrings on a short-week are another fade for me.  He’s still a start due to game-script and TD potential, but I’d have my fingers crossed.  Ty Chandler is back to stash central and I would hold on to him as long as I can because I don’t trust Jones to stay healthy.  Jones has RB1 potential this week, but I will continue to fade TNF RB until they cover multiple weeks in a row and don’t get hurt.  The Vikings rush d is a buzz saw, as they have given up three TDs and only 480 rushing yards on the season.  Obviously Kyren Williams is a must-start vs. any team in the league, but temper expectations.  Williams has been legit this season and is a top-five RB rest of the season.  This is by far his worst matchup of the year.  I’d be happy with 60 yards and a TD.

The WRs : Let’s go.  I love elite WRs going h2h even though they never share the field at the same time.  I will ride Jefferson until I die and somehow he didn’t cover his yardage prop after having 81 yards with 10 minutes left in the third quarter.  It was a travesty.  He’s locked and loaded here and is the WR1 on the week.  Super smash spot.  Jordan Addison is staying relevant, but he hasn’t had more than three receptions in any game this season and the return of TJ Hockenson might cut into his already small workload.  It’s a solid matchup for him, but he’s not a must-start, more of a fringe-WR3 at best.  Kupp is back to must-start and should see as much volume as humanly possible.  He had over 20 targets in Week 1 and I could see that again as MIN is a pass-funnel and this game is do-or-die and also a potential audition tape for teams.  The real issue is what happens to Tutu Atwell.  I think he holds his value as he was solid with Puka Nacua last year and Kupp is going to run shorter routes or crosses over the middle which will attract the teeth of the defense and allow Atwell to roam downfield.  As long as Stafford has enough time to get the ball off, I would still start Atwell as a WR3, flex play. I just love the situation, home dog vs. a team that forces the pass.

The TEs : Hockenson is still questionable, but I’m feeling he gets the go ahead, but do no play him.  He will be on a snap count and will his involvement will take a ramp up.  He’s got solid rest of the season potential, but expect this to take a few weeks.  Colby Parkinson hasn’t scored this season and probably won’t now with Kupp back.  He’s a dart throw TE play if anything.  This is not a TE game, but Hockenson does have TD potential if he plays.

Best Bet : Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson anytime TD +309

Jefferson seems to find the end zone every game and usually on a bomb, so the worry is Kupp, but he dominated the red zone targets last season and we know Stafford hyper-targets when they get close.  I love this bet because I think this game is high scoring as both teams will attack through the air.  The only worry is if one defense decides to take the other superstar WR out of the game by bracketing them with a double coverage all game and even then I’m not sure that will stop them.

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