Broncos (-3) @ Saints (+3)

O/U 36.5

Important notes for Broncos:

The Broncos are making their run based on a stingy defense and trying to keep rookie QB Bo Nix out of too much trouble.  The offense tends to flip-flip between terrible and sneakily effective and it’s very hard to predict which will show up on any given day.  The Broncos are three points favorites on the road, which is very surprising, but that says more about the Saints, than it does the Broncos.  Nix is getting it done on the ground and is fresh of a 61-yard rushing performance vs. a very solid LAC defense.  It seems he might finally be getting used to NFL speed, but there aren’t any gamebreakers on offense for him to rely on.  Courtland Sutton is reliable in the red zone and Javonte Williams has less than 25 yards rushing in each of the last three games.  This features to be a low-scoring game where the Saints try and use the crowd noise to keep Nix off-kilter and whichever team turns the ball over more loses.  Not a great game to start fantasy players in for either team.

Important notes for the Saints:

The Saints are hoping Spencer Rattler is going to shake off the cobwebs from his first start and end this four game losing streak for the Saints.  The Saints are very banged up and are down Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (meniscus) for this game and possible the season.  Expect a ton of Alvin Kamara, but beware the TNF curse for RBs.  The DEN defense is ferocious and they will definitely game plan against Kamara, but he should be able to get loose in the passing game.  He’s still a must-start, but temper expectations.  The receiving game is the problem for NO, but WR Bub Means might be ready to breakout after scoring his first TD last week.  Rattler isn’t a start for fantasy and this whole game is a stayaway except for Kamara and maybe Means if you need WR help.

The QBs: Nix is keeping his fantasy value alive with his legs and has at least 25 rushing yards in four of the six games.  He’s getting a lot of carries and could break a big one vs. a broken NO defense this week.  He’s a tough start in 1QB leagues, but the Saints did just give up 50+ points to TB.  He’s got b2b games of 2+ passing TDs and three rushing TDs on the season.  He might be good for one of each tonight.  Low-end play at best.  Rattler is fun and I really like him, but what can he do vs. an elite defense that is second in yards-per-play and fifth in passing yards allowed.  Add in no Olave and Shaheed and it’s going to be a tough day at the office.  He’s at home which should help, but unless there’s a miracle, he’s going to be in trouble and at risk of throwing multiple INTs.  I would start any other QB in the league over him this week.

The RBs :  Kamara is the last man standing for the Saints and it’s now or never for them, so expect every play in the book to try and get him free and in the open field.  It’s going to be tough, especially on a short week, but expect plenty of volume and not much to show for it.  I think he could get easily get double digit targets in this game and could end up being an RB1 in PPR leagues this week.  The total is so low, that it indicates two TDs max for NO, but who else is going to score other than Kamara.  The Broncos are more vulnerable to the run than the pass, but it’s still not a smash-spot.  The Broncos RBs are in crisis and Javonte Williams is the RB1 by default.  The offense as a whole is near the bottom in every metric, but there is room for optimism going forward.  You can’t start Williams this  week if you have any better options, but the Saints did just killed on the ground last week, so there is a glimmer of hope.  If Denver can build a lead, they will lean on the ground game and the Saints might be ready to roll over.  Williams is a low-end flex play at best with a low floor and a high ceiling if he can break loose.

The WRs : Last week there was six legitimate options for fantasy and this week there is barely one.  I am on the Means’ bandwagon, but not this week.  With Patrick Surtain out, it’s a wrap and Means should all the good work and Courtland Sutton is TD dependent and he only hast two.  Neither team has reliable WRs for fantasy, but at least for DEN, the matchup is juicy as the Saints are giving up a league-worst 395 yards per game.  Sutton is a WR3 at best as he hasn’t racked up even 70 yards in a game this season.  I wouldn’t start him, but I understand the logic of matchup vs. talent.  Means is a guy I just went after in my big-money league and am stoked for the rest of the season.  I’m starting him this week, but I’m desperate and he could fail upwards due to sheer volume.

The TEs : Juwan Johnson gets a nice bump this week due to lack of options. Taysom Hill is doubtful which is too bad because this would be a great spot for him to do a little of everything.  Johnson is a fringe TE1 due to the lack of receiving options, but his ceiling is capped as well. I would bet his 2.5 reception total over rather than start him for fantasy.  It’s not even worth talking about the DEN TEs this week or this season.

Best Bet : Over Alvin Kamara receiving yards or receptions 36.5 or 4.5

I wanted to bet Nix rushing yards, but 27.5 is a little too high for me.  We know Kamara is going to involved if they go up and we really know they will use him if they are down.  He should be game-script proof here and I like him to get more targets tonight than in any game this season.  The question is whether he can stay healthy and actually break a screen for an explosive play.  The 4.5 is safer, then 36.5 is more fun.