Niners (-3.5) vs. Seahawks (+3.5)

O/U 48.5

Important notes for Niners:

Predicting who is going to win each game has become increasingly difficult this season as no favorite is safe and every dog is barking, but the one trend that has seemed to hold is the most desperate team usually comes out on top.  The spread seemingly indicates that as the Niners are desperate after falling to Arizona last week.  The Christian McCaffrey watch is approaching OJ in the bronco levels, but for now, it’s the Jordan Mason show.  The Niners on paper are an elite team, boasting a top-10 running and passing offense as well as a defense that is also top-10.  Brandon Aiyuk finally woke up last week and now SF has four legitimate weapons in the passing game.  Who is going to go off every week remains a mystery.  The one thing you can expect this week is the Niners to prey on weakness and the SEA rush defense is a huge one as they are allowing an average of 128 rushing yards per game.  Look for SF to attack the ground often and early as they try and keep SEA on their heels.

Important notes for the Seahawks:

The Seahawks are 3.5 and underdogs to a team with a losing record while being at home.  This game could continue the one-game trend of great TNF games.  The Seahawks want to run the ball, but only had 11 rushing attempts last week.  I expect SEA to try and involve Walker early as the 49ers rank 20th in Rush EPA, so it’s a good spot for Walker to be featured on the ground.  The new OC will do whatever he feels is necessary to win the game and if that means sidelining Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, so be it, but that won’t be the gameplan starting out.  Geno Smith is leading the league with 1,466 passing yards and it’s clear SEA is leaning on it’s three elite WRs when it needs a big play.  DK Metcalf had another costly fumble last week and could be out for blood, especially if CB Charvarius Ward can’t play.  SEA isn’t afraid to air it out and they will attack this Niners defense any way they can.  Smith has been under siege all season, taking 18 sacks, but he’s also hanging in there and delivering strikes as he’s third in the league with a 71.9% completion rate.

The QBs: The two unlikeliest QBs in the league are now two of the most reliable.  Brock Purdy has been slinging it with six TDs in his last four games, he’s also been making critical mistakes with an INT four straight.  He’s a sneaky threat on the ground and he’s got at least 11 yards rushing in each game this season.  Despite his prolific weapons, the way to attack this SEA defense is on the ground and I expect the Niners to lean on Jordan Mason as the Seahawks take away the deep ball and force Purdy into intermediate throws. He’s been airing it out this season, but the Niners need a win and they don’t care if it’s pretty.  Geno Smith is going to stick with what is working and while the imbalance from last week wasn’t ideal, this Niner defense isn’t quite what it’s been in the past.  The o-line remains a massive problem and allowed Smith to get sacked seven times vs. the Giants.  Expect the Niners to attack from the jump.  Purdy is a low-end QB1 this week and Smith is more reliable due to likely negative game script.

The RBs :  Jordan Mason is being used as an old school back and is non-existent in the passing game.  He’s been fairly unlucky in the red zone, but that could all change this week.  The book on SEA is you can run on them and SF isn’t going to overthink it.  Mason is averaging 107 rushing yards per game and while RBs on TNF games are almost always a stayaway, this could be the exception.  I could see the Niners trying to ease his carries a little by giving Deebo Samuel more work, but Mason should get close to 100 yards in this game.  Walker is the RB who needs more work after missing time and only racking up 19 rushing yards last week.  He did get involved in the game, but that was mostly game script.  The Seahawks are a passing team now, but they will try lean on Walker to get big plays and keep the defense off of Smith.  He’s a solid RB1 this week.

The WRs : I can’t remember a game with this many options.  You have to start everyone on SEA with DK being a WR1 and looking to avenge last week’s letdown.  He could go off if a couple things break right.  Jaxon Smith-Njigba hasn’t truly broken out yet, but it’s only a matter of time as Tyler Lockett still has some juice in his legs.  The Niners defense is banged up and can be thrown on.  This game has sneaky big game potential.  The emergence of Jauan Jennings is just another tool that SF can use at any moment.  With Aiyuk finally getting back on track, it’s anyone’s guess who pops off this game.  Deebo only had one catch last week, so expect SF to get back to basics, but they are at their best when they attack downfield, but that’s also what SEA takes away.  Aiyuk and Deebo are must-starts and Jennings probably belongs back on the bench for now.

The TEs : George Kittle spent the last two seasons being untrustworthy as he was the epitome of boom-or-bust, but now he’s got at least four grabs and 40 yards in every game and scored in three of the four.  The Niners have been using him like they should, but will the return of Aiyuk send him back to shadowlands.  He’s must-start until he goes three games without doing anything and even then.  He could easily be the TE1 this week.  Noah Fant is just another name on the drawing board if you’re desperate, but I wouldn’t start any TEs who have to go over the middle and deal with Fred Warner.

Best Bet : Over Brock Purdy rushing yards 13.5 

The smart bet is to smash Mason rushing yards, but I swore last year I would stay away from RBs on short weeks.  You can run all over SEA and I expect SF to in multiple ways.  Purdy had 33 rushing yards last week and SEA loves to get pressure and will force Purdy out of the pocket.  I love this bet.  I also like Deebo Samuel rushing yards at 12.5.  Samuel only had three carries last week, but this is a must-win game and they are going to pull out all the stops.