Texans (-1) @ Chiefs (+1)

O/U 41.5

Important notes for Texans:

The Texans are living off their defense as CJ Stroud is in the middle of a sophomore slump.  They are the league’s fourth-ranked defense and is No. 6 against the pass and about to break the franchise record for sacks.  This was supposed to be a high-powered offense, but Stroud has only hit 250 passing yards in one of his last six games.  He might be heating up with at least two TDs in two of this last three, but that’s clearly due to Nico Collins.  They have been powered by Joe Mixon as he has scored in every game except three.  The Chiefs are a nightmare matchup for HOU as they excel vs. the rush and are elite at stopping WR1s.  This game will have a playoff feel and HOU should be able to stick around and maybe steal the win.

Important notes for the Chiefs:

Everything starts and ends with Pat Mahomes as he’s dealing with ankle injury, but is expected to play.  The Chiefs are also getting back Hollywood Brown and while he probably won’t be effective in this one, it bodes well for their playoff run.  The Chiefs are playing with fire as they don’t have a left tackle and you don’t want Mahomes to be running for his life with a bum wing.  This figures to be a low-scoring affair, but both QBs can light it up in a hurry.  You want to start your stars as they got you here, but do it hoping they hit their floor and don’t bank on any ceilings.

The QBs: If this was Week 1, this would be hyped as the game of the year, but now both QBs have had underwhelming seasons and you really don’t want to start them if you don’t have to.  Mahomes being hurt is a huge risk although he is incredibly tough.  The HOU pass defense is great and KC will likely try and pound the ball to avoid any wear and tear on their QB.  Stroud has only finished as the QB11 in his last seven games and this is not the time to expect a boom.  KC will force him to dink-and-dunk, but Collins is the X-factor who could just go off.  I wouldn’t start either QB here.

The RBs :  Despite the poor matchup, Mixon is still a must-start.  He only has one TD in his last three games, but he’s been as reliable as it gets.  He’s got at least 20 rushes in six of the last eight games and the Texans won’t change horses now.  Isaiah Pacheco is more complicated as he doesn’t have a top-30 finish since he’s returned and really isn’t breaking tackles like he was last season.  The volume should be assured, but the Texans tackle very well and don’t expect him to break one.  Kareem Hunt got nice usage last week with 13 rushes, but he’s not being used in the passing game and isn’t getting the goal-line work.  Both RBs are eating into each other’s production right now.

The WRs : Getting Hollywood Brown back is huge, but now KC has three WRs who can all make plays with an elite TE.  That helps the team, but waters it down from a fantasy perspective.  Xavier Worthy has been boom-or-bust all season and it’s hard to trust him this late in the season.  I wouldn’t start Hollywood either, but he could end up swinging leagues in the fantasy finals.  DeAndre Hopkins is fairly reliable getting targets, but they aren’t downfield and HOU has been great at limited WRs all season.  All three have talent, but I’m not playing roulette in the semi-finals.  Nico Collins is must-start regardless of who he is playing against and while he had two TDs last week, he had less than 20 yards.  Last week was likely an anomaly and expect him to get heavy usage this week especially if the run game sputters.  It’s a bad matchup, but he’s a matchup buster.  Tank Dell has been terrible all season and there is no reason to start him now.

The TEs : Travis Kelce gets a tough matchup this week versus a Houston defense that ranks third in the NFL in DVOA versus opposing tight ends.  He will get his, but will he go off? He’s still a safe play as Mahomes always looks for him over the middle, but he really needs to score a TD to reward fantasy GMs.  Dalton Schultz is a sneaky play as Kansas City has allowed the most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.  I almost like him more than Kelce this week, but you can’t really do that if you roster both.

Best Bet : Nico Collins receptions over 6.5 and Travis Kelce under 50.5 yards

It’s hard to pick any bets in this game and I’m leaning towards an under parlay.  Just playing the matchup here, but I don’t love this.  I’ll probably put a small bet and look for something else later.

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