Buccaneers (-4) @ Cowboys (+4)

O/U 48.5

Important notes for Buccaneers:

The Buccaneers enter this game on a four-game winning streak, and sit alone at the top of the NFC South, though only a game ahead of the Atlanta Falcons. While they may not have the tools for a deep playoff run, especially with the injuries suffered by their defensive side of the ball, they still remain a high-octane offense that has the fifth-highest implied team total in Week 16. The Buccaneers will look to extend their lead in the division as the Falcons make a late-season QB change for a playoff push with three weeks to go in the regular season. The Buccaneers are down another pass-catcher in TE Cade Otton this week, so expect a condensed passing game with a heavy lean on the ground game as favorites vs. the banged-up Cowboys.

Important notes for Cowboys:

While the Cowboys’ season has gone awry, at least they’ve managed to still feature some fantasy-viable players down the stretch, namely the great WR CeeDee Lamb and young RB Rico Dowdle. A majority of their value comes from their volume alone as the most talented weapons in Dallas. The Cowboys are all but eliminated from playoff contention, but have won three of their last four games despite the overall disappointment. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they’re at home for this contest, where they have played significantly worse this season, with a record of just 1-6 on their own turf. Dallas is in the middle of the pack in implied team total this week, with 22.5 points projected against the Bucs’ own battered defense.

The QBs: (TB) Baker Mayfield continues to play some of the best football of his NFL career this season, and has finished as a QB1 in 3-of-4 performances after coming out of the bye in Week 11. He’s the QB5 in FPPG on the season, and has finished as a weekly top-8 QB in 10-of-14 games. The Bucs are 14th in the NFL in pass-rate over the last four weeks of the season at roughly 54%, and that may be even lower this week as the team operates without pass-catching TE Cade Otton. Thankfully, Tampa Bay’s running game is pounding the rock with the league’s best on a weekly basis at this point, so the team should still be effective as a whole operation, though Mayfield’s ceiling is likely capped without heavy RB usage in the passing game. (DAL) Cooper Rush has been a serviceable QB, and is the QB20 in FPPG over his last five starts. While he’s likely far out of contention in single QB fantasy leagues, he has some appeal in 2QB or superflex formats, at least given the matchup. He has multiple touchdown passes in 3-of-4 games, and while Tampa Bay may look like they’ve been better vs. QBs in recent weeks, they’ve played the Chargers, Raiders, Panthers and Giants over the last month of the season. The latter three of which possess some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL, but even the improving sophomore Bryce Young finished as the overall QB8 when they played. From Weeks 5-10, the Buccaneers allowed every QB not named Spencer Rattler to score at least 27 fantasy points, and those involved combined for an average of a whopping roughly 36 FPPG. For reference, Lamar Jackson is leading QBs at 25.5 FPPG this season.

The RBs: (TB) The Buccaneers have one of the league’s deeper running back rooms, and it shows in their usage rates on offense. Over the last month of the season, the Buccaneers are second in the NFL in expected RB fantasy points based on usage, trailing only the Detroit Lions. Despite leaving after one drive in Week 14 against the Raiders, rookie RB Bucky Irving is seventh in FPPG among running backs in this span. Meanwhile, veteran RB Rachaad White has been the RB14 in FPPG over this stretch, to go along with four touchdowns in as many games. Both running backs have been running hard, but Irving has been on another level in efficiency, averaging roughly 6.87 YPC since the team’s Week 11 bye. Whenever both are healthy, Irving is more likely to finish as a fringe-RB1, while White still has RB2 upside. The Cowboys allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2024. (DAL) Rico Dowdle is the RB25 in FPPG this season, but has been nothing short of impressive in recent weeks, with three-straight games as the RB15 overall or better. In that stretch, he leads the NFL in rushing yards with 392, with a near-80-yard lead on Bijan Robinson, the next-closest back. Unfortunately, he gets a tougher matchup this week against Tampa Bay, led by NT Vita Vea, who haven’t allowed a RB to achieve a double-digit fantasy performance since their Week 11 bye. At least, the Bucs allow both the third-most receptions and receiving yards allowed to opposing RBs this season, an area where Dowdle has been featured more heavily in at times this year.

The WRs: (TB) Veteran Mike Evans is charging ahead towards the 1,000-yard mark on the season, even though QB Baker Mayfield believes he thinks about preserving his top target’s historic streak more than he does, which is probably a good thing. This team is getting more and more thin when it comes to viable pass-catchers left on the roster, but thankfully, Evans looks to be fully recovered from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for five weeks earlier this year. Evans is a top-10 fantasy wideout in FPPG this season, and has two top-4 WR finishes across his last three performances. The Cowboys also just lost CB1 Trevon Diggs for the rest of the season, making coverage even softer for the already-hobbled Cowboys’ defense. Evans needs 251 yards across his last three performances to secure his 11th-straight 1,000-yard receiving season. Meanwhile, rookie WR Jalen McMillan has really come on over the last few weeks, serving as a nice complementary role, making the most of the designed touches that have gone his way, too. McMillan is moving up WR rankings to close the season, nearing the WR3 range, and figures to be involved once again this week against Dallas. Over his last two games, he’s hauled in 9-of-16 targets for 134 yards and three touchdowns. Dallas is giving up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. (DAL) Superstar WR CeeDee Lamb is T-7th in FPPG this season, remaining a WR1 talent despite the adversity faced by he and the Cowboys’ offense this year. Going into Week 14, Lamb has just two WR1 finishes on the season, before finishing as the WR11 and WR7 overall in each of his last two games. He may not have quite the elite ceiling that we’re used to from him, but in a year when WR production has dipped a bit, he’s been a rock-solid PPR WR1 as the featured member of the Dallas offense. Brandin Cooks had a touchdown in each of his first two games back from injury before failing to do so in Week 15, but still had 3-of-5 targets for 34 yards. His volume isn’t enough to bank on fantasy production this late in the year, but this game could see enough passing production for him to get home vs. a Tampa defense that allows the seventh-most WR FPPG in 2024 and are extremely banged up in their secondary.

The TEs: (TB) Already mentioned a few times in this piece, but no Cade Otton for the Buccaneers this week with a knee injury. Payne Durham has played the second-most TE snaps for the Bucs this season, and has been featured in two-TE sets most often, but I’m not looking to add another Bucs TE for fantasy football purposes in the semi-finals. (DAL) Jake Ferguson has been disappointing when on the field for a lot of his recent run. He missed some time with injury in between, but has failed to see more than 32 receiving yards in four-straight performances and hasn’t found the end zone once this season, after being among the league’s most-targeted red zone pass-catchers in 2023. He can be left out of fantasy lineups at this stage of the season, despite the Buccaneers allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends to date.

Best Bet: Bucky Irving OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-120) & Anytime TD (-105) [Parlay: +258]

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