Broncos (+3) @ Chargers (-3)

O/U 41.5

Important notes for Broncos:

The Broncos won’t go away and while Bo Nix looked lost in the first half last week, he bounced back nicely with three TDs to match his three INTs.  The offense continues to hum even without a reliable running game or multiple pass-catching threats.  DEN lost Jaleel McLaughlin last week who is capable of explosive runs and will have to pivot back to the plodding Javonte Williams.  Courtland Sutton had his first game under 70 yards in six games and will try to get back on track in a tough matchup.  This has under written all over it as both QBs are more than capable, but these teams are led by their defense and that shouldn’t change in a game with massive playoff implications.

Important notes for the Chargers:

The Chargers have lost b2b games only scoring 17 points and this is the not time to struggle on either end.  They just gave up 40 to TB and with no running game, it’s all back on Justin Herbert, which historically isn’t the best place to be.  Herbert is under 220 yards in each of the last four games and broke his INT streak last week in a matchup he should have thrived in.  Ladd McConkey returned which helped, but the lack of explosive plays is keeping this offense from doing any real damage.  Herbert is also dealing with an ankle injury and that might keep him from taking off as he has been prone to do earlier in the season. He only has 13 rushing yards combined in his last three games after a three-game stretch where the lowest he had was 29.

The QBs: On paper this is a great matchup as both QBs have carried the offensive load for the season.  Nix is still ascending, but also still adjusting while Herbert is in his prime and finally winning games.  Nix has finished as the QB14 and QB26 the last two weeks and while he was great during the middle part of the season, this is not the time to back him in your semi-final matchup.  While he did rush eight times last week which is more than the previous three games combined, he only had 130 passing yards with the three INTs.  The Chargers will take the top off the field and force him to dink-and-dunk all game and with no running game to speak of, expect plenty of long drives that will stall out.  Herbert has been similarly inconsistent with his best finish being QB12 over the last four games.  These teams play a similar style and won’t beat themselves and while neither team can run the ball, neither team has an explosive downfield offense either.  I would avoid both QBs for fantasy this week.

The RBs :  This might be the worst RB matchup of the season.  With McLaughin out, expect Javonte Williams and Audric Estime to share snaps, but they only combined for 28 yards last week.  DEN won’t abandon the run, but they won’t lean into it either.  You can’t start any RBs in this matchup.  The Chargers running game is almost worse if that’s possible as they only ran 11 times last week in a negative game script.  Gus Edwards might score, but he’s not going to break a big one and isn’t involved in the passing game.  Kimani Vidal is more versatile, but just barely and it’s scary out there for RBs in this one.

The WRs : You would think with no running game, it would be a WR bonanza, but again that’s not the case.  Sure, Ladd McConkey has a nice spot as he’s Herbert’s go-to guy, but if he gets shadowed by Patrick Surtain, he might be in trouble.  Expect him to be mostly out of the slot and while he is a must-start, DEN is very solid in coverage minus the one Jameis Winston explosion game.  Quentin Johnston has looked better recently, but he’s still too inconsistent for me to trust in a massive week with a bad matchup.  Same goes for Josh Palmer.  Courtland Sutton has been elite all season and has three top-10 finishes in his last five games.  While last week’s no-show was shocking, I do expect him to bounce-back this week despite the tough spot.  He only caught 3-of-9 targets last week, but has at least eight in seven straight games.  He will get looks and should be good for five catches and 60 yards as his floor.  We know Nix trusts him when they get in the red zone, so a TD is on the table as well.  I’d be very comfortable McConkey and Sutton this week, but I like each player’s floor, not their ceiling.

The TEs : With Will Dissly out, there isn’t much to like here.  Adam Trautman scored for DEN last week, but I’m not banking on that. Stone Smart looked very good for LAC last week and scored while tying McConkey in catches, but it’s too late in the season for TE fliers.

Best Bet : Over Ladd McConkey 64.5 and Courtland Sutton 62.5 at +219

I love betting TNF games and while this game will be good, it’s not very attractive from a betting angle.  With no running games to speak of, expect plenty of passing, but mostly around the line of scrimmage.  I also like both players completions at 5.5 as well.  This is a big game and expect both QBs to go where they trust.  Neither team is playing great at the moment and that’s not ideal on a short week.  I lean under on most props in this game excpet the two stud WRs.

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