Packers (-2.5) @ Seahawks (+2.5)

O/U 46.5

Important notes for Packers:

Green Bay enters this week at 9-4 and third in the NFC North, but a likely NFC Wild Card contender with the postseason rapidly approaching. They’ve won their last seven games against teams not named the Detroit Lions, and have transitioned the identity of their offense as the season as progressed. They’ve been limiting the miscues and grinding out the clock with the running game as Josh Jacobs has re-emerged as an elite NFL running back, entering the week third among all running backs in rushing yards. The Packers are getting Romeo Doubs back out wide on offense, but will be without some key defensive members for this matchup. CB Jaire Alexander and rookie safety Javon Bullard are inactive, but the team will be getting back rookies safety Evan Williams and LB Edgerrin Cooper.

Important notes for Seahawks:

Coming into Week 15, the Seahawks are 8-5 and sit atop the NFC West, but would tie for the division lead with the Rams if they can’t pull off a win at home against the Packers Sunday night. Seattle has won four-straight heading into this NFC heavyweight bout on Sunday Night Football, and are relatively healthy on both sides of the ball, though star RB Kenneth Walker III has headlined injury reports as doubtful for this contest. In Seattle, the forecast for tomorrow night’s weather is reportedly a 29% chance of rain with light winds present throughout the contest, meaning it should have little impact on how the game plays out. The Seahawks have to step up when defending play-action in this game, as they currently rank 31st when defending the pass against play action plays, despite ranking first against non-play action passing plays. Meanwhile, Packers QB Jordan Love ranks second in EPA and third in passing yards per dropbacks with play action.

The QBs: (GB) Jordan Love is the QB9 in FPPG this season at 18.1 per game, but only has one finish as a QB12 or better in his last six games. The Packers have shifted away from the air a bit, as Josh Jacobs has dominated the workload from the offense in recent weeks. The Seahawks are ranked 17th in the NFL in FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season, and have allowed 5-of-6 opponents to score at least two touchdowns and 18 fantasy points, averaging 19 FPPG in that span. The Seahawks are relatively healthy on defense, and have allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards in the NFL this season. Love is probably good for a touchdown or two in this one, but I’m not expecting him to be much better than a QB2 on the road in Seattle. (SEA) Geno Smith is the QB16 in FPPG this season at 16.7 points per contest, but is the QB29 in FPPG since his Week 10 bye, averaging just 14 FPPG over the last month of the season. His volume has been consistent in that span, failing to surpass even 35 pass attempts in a game, after throwing at least 40 in four of his first six games this year. Part of that may be due to the injury to D.K. Metcalf earlier this season, but it hasn’t shifted back since he’s returned to action a few weeks back, now. The Packers’ defense will be without star CB Jaire Alexander and rookie slot DB Javon Bullard for this game, which could make things a bit easier for Smith against a depleted Green Bay secondary.

The RBs: (GB) As the Packers have shifted their offense into a run-first, grinding offense, Josh Jacobs has been absolutely phenomenal. Only trailing Saquon Barkley, Jacobs is the RB2 in FPPG since Week 10 with 23.6 points per game in that span. He has eight touchdowns over the last month of the season, three more than the next-closest ball-carrier in the NFL. He has been absolutely lights out, and now gets a Seahawks defense that allows the seventh-most rushing yards per game, and ninth-most FPPG to opposing RBs. Over their last nine games, Seattle is allowing opposing starting RBs to average 5.4 YPC, and Jacobs should be next in line to eat them up on the ground. In his only game in his career against Seattle, he ran wild for a whopping 303 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns back in 2022 with the Raiders. (SEA) With Kenneth Walker III recently downgraded to doubtful for this week’s game, it’s looking more and more likely that he will miss a second-consecutive week. That means it’ll be a full workload for second-year RB Zach Charbonnet, which now likely gives this backfield its highest ceiling for fantasy football. Charbonnet has finished as an RB1 in all three of his starts this season, averaging nearly 25 FPPG. He’s got it done on the ground and through the air, averaging five receptions in his three starts. Meanwhile, GB allows the sixth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to running backs on the season. It’s a bit inflated given the play styles of their recent opponents, but the Packers have allowed 21 receptions to RBs across their last two games, against the Lions and Dolphins. Charbonnet is an easy RB1 play for me this week.

The WRs: (GB) With Romeo Doubs entering back into the fold, and the fluctuating play from the WR group in GB as a whole, this is a frustrating position group to break down with fantasy football playoff stakes here and now. Given the aforementioned stat breaking down the play action advantage for the Packers’ passing attack against Seattle, it feels like the best angle to attack this group from. Per Next Gen Stats, Jayden Reed leads GB WRs with 20 targets on play action plays this season, despite running the fewest routes of the three starting WRs, with 55. Of those opportunities, Reed has hauled in 11 passes for 204 yards and two touchdowns. Over the last two months of the season, Jayden Reed has also seen the highest first-read target share against two-high coverage, which Seattle deploys more than a majority of teams in the NFL this season. Christian Watson has also been solid on play action plays, catching 10-of-16 targets on 66 routes for 212 yards and two touchdowns. Doubs has been much less involved in these scenarios, seeing just five catches for 106 scoreless yards on 59 play action routes run in 2024. It feels like a good bounce back spot for Reed, while Watson could be a good upside play given the recent uptick in opportunities and production. (SEA) Jaxon Smith-Njigba stayed hot last week, and now has at least 16.7 fantasy points in 4-of-5 games. He’s the WR3 in FPPG over that span, and has become the top target of the Seahawks passing attack as D.K. Metcalf has put out middling production since returning from injury in Week 11 out of the bye, and has finished outside the top-36 WRs in his last three games. The team has gone away from the pass a bit, but JSN’s volume feels very steady, and the Packers are down their starting slot DB this week. There is a realistic floor outcome for these wideouts, though, as the Seahawks rank sixth-worst in opponent time of possession, and there’s a chance that if GB controls the game, it could squeeze the Seahawks’ offense for fantasy scoring opportunities if they can’t put together efficient drives. As a final note, without the insane volume that this passing offense had early in the year, Tyler Lockett is unplayable with the emergence of breakout sophomore WR Smith-Njigba.

The TEs: (GB) Tucker Kraft has had a productive second NFL season in 2024, as the TE8 in FPPG on the year. He’s tied for second at the position with seven receiving touchdowns on the year, and as we know, touchdowns are often the moneymakers for tight ends in fantasy football, at least beyond the elite options. Going back to play action, Tucker Kraft is actually the most productive Packers pass-catcher in play action scenarios, catching 16-of-22 targets on 70 routes run, totaling 242 yards and three touchdowns. The Seahawks have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, and Kraft feels like a solid TE1 in this matchup. (SEA) Noah Fant hasn’t finished inside the top-24 TEs since Week 7, as rookie TE AJ Barner has mixed into the offense a bit, even catching a TD pass in Week 13, though neither are involved consistently enough to be trusted in any capacity for this matchup. However, the Packers rank as the ninth-worst defense at defending fantasy TEs this season.

Best Bet: Zach Charbonnet OVER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110) [possible parlay with Anytime TD (+232)]

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