Packers (+3.5) @ Lions (-3.5)

O/U 51.5

Important notes for Packers:

The Packers are peaking at the perfect time after beating the Niners and Dolphins handedly in b2b weeks.  They have their toughest task yet on the road and will be without starting CB Jaire Alexander and WR Romeo Doubs.  The WR issue is less pressing as they are deep at receiver and next man up has worked for them all season.  Josh Jacobs has a nagging calf issue, but he’s good-to-go and while he’s a must-start, it’s hard to have much faith in him on the road at Detroit on a short week.  The key to this game as most games is which Jordan Love is showing up.  Love has gone b2b games without an INT and if he can do that again, it will give GB a massive leg up on the Lions.  We’ve seen Jared Goff play a little loose with the ball and the Packers defense is predicated on takeaways.  Love should be able to get his vs. this banged up DET defense who should get CB Carlton Davis back, but expect him to be airing out the ball and picking the secondary apart.

Important notes for the Lions:

The Lions were rolling like few teams in NFL history, but now they have b2b games only scoring 23 points and it’s possible they might have peaked too early.  The Packers are a terrible matchup for them and if they can get Goff off his spots and make him uncomfortable, he could start to unravel.  Also, the strength of the DET attack comes from running the ball and we’ve see GB limit San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey to 31 yards on 11 attempts and held Miami to 39 yards rushing in their past two games.  Defenses go up and down all season and it appears the GB defense is trending up at this exact moment.  You can’t really stop the Lions, you can only hope to contain them.  As good as the GB defense is playing, you’re still starting all your stars and feeling pretty good about it as DET is home after all.

The QBs: Love vs. Goff is a great matchup as both can look elite in one game and the opposite the following.  Love has two TDs in b2b games and hasn’t really had to do too much.  The key is whether he is 100% healthy as he only has two rushing yards combined in the last two games.  When Love is firing on all cylinders, he looks like he belongs in the upper tier, but we haven’t quite seen that this year.  That’s mostly been due to injuries, but this is the perfect game for him to unload the chamber.  He only has over 300 yards once this season, but he also had thrown an INT in every game prior to the last two.  I have a feeling this is the Love breakout statement game and I love him this week for fantasy.  Goff is right there with Love as we know he’s more comfortable at home and could be passing more than usual if the GB rush defense keeps stonewalling.  Goff didn’t have any TDs two weeks ago, but he’s got eight in the past four games and when he’s hot, the offense just hums.  I like Love more than Goff in this one, but they are pretty much neck-and-neck.

The RBs :  This is a disaster matchup for all the RBs as both defenses are top-10 in rush yards allowed and are peaking at the right time.  The Lions just held Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift to under 40 yards and I don’t expect Josh Jacobs to buck the trend.  He should get his 60 yards, but it might take him 15-20 carries and he will need to find the end zone to have a shot at a good fantasy week.  The Packers have rode him all season as have fantasy GMs, so it’s hard to abandon ship now.  The same goes for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who are the best RB duo in recent history.  They each have over 10 TDs and and just last week they each had over 80 yards rushing.  The Lions won’t pivot too hard to the pass in this game, but this won’t be a classic Sonic and Knuckles game.  This is setting up as a pass-first game on both ends and if the scores stays close, don’t expect either team to run just to run.

The WRs : This is stud city and even without Romeo Doubs, there are plenty of big players who might go off.  The lead is Jayden Reed, who has under 30 yards in three straight games.  While it appears that he should get-right in this one, the Lions play a lot of man and that is not where Reed excels.  Reed scored twice last week, so you’re not benching him unless it’s a 2WR league, but temper your expectations.  The WRs I really like are Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks.  Wicks had five targets this past week and should get even more this week.  I really, really like him.  Watson has been very boom-or-bust, but has at least 60 yards in two of the last three games.  You have to go Reed, Watson and then Wicks, but I’m not overly confident the box score will read that way.  Amon-Ra St. Brown was born for this game and expect him to be the clear WR1 on TNF.  What more can you say, except he won’t have a three-game scoreless streak.  Jameson Williams is also going to pop and has seven targets in b2b games. He’s not just a deep threat, but if he breaks one, I could see him being a sneaky high-end WR2 this week.  High floor, higher ceiling.

The TEs : Sam LaPorta has two TDs last week, but nothing can save him from being a bust this season. He’s got under 20 yards in the last games and is TD or bust.  I don’t hate him in this matchup, but if I picked up a stud TE earlier in the season, I will go with him.  Same goes Tucker Kraft as the Lions are elite vs. TEs. Sure, he had 78 yards last week, but he also 26 combined in the two games previous.  This is not the TE game.

Best Bet : Jared Goff 1.5 TDs and Jordan Love 1.5 TDs +176

When there are so many weapons on offense, it’s hard to key on any guy.  There are WRs I like in this game and will bet, but no one is screaming bet me.  The total is high in this game and while I do lean towards the under, I do think both teams will stop the run and force these QBs to air it out.  Goff at home is usually a lock for at least two TDs and Love on the road, possibly playing catchup has an even better chance.  I don’t love only getting +176, but for now that’s my best bet.

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