Commanders (+3.5) @ Eagles (-3.5)

O/U 48.5

Important notes for Commanders:

The NFL should pat itself on the back for rejuvenating the TNF game and making it must-watch TV.  This game is no exemption as it’s two great teams, a divisional battle and playoff seeding implications.  It’s also got two of the best QBs in the NFC and everything you’d want from a fantasy perspective.  The good news for WAS is Brian Thomas Jr. is set to return after missing two games with a hamstring.  The bad news is the Eagles defense is peaking right now and the rush defense is the tip of the spear, ranking fifth against a WAS rush attack that also ranks top-five.  This game will be won on the ground, but the Commanders’ best weapon is Jayden Daniels and he only has 40 rushing yards combined in the last two games.  He’s either nursing his ribs, teams are game-planning against him with a spy or Kliff Kingsbury is taking plays out of the playbook.  This team is great with the threat of him rushing and simply ordinary without it.  A short week vs. an elite defense isn’t exactly the ideal time to bust open the playbook again.  A healthy WAS team is a legit threat, but the Eagles are peaking, while the Commanders are stuck in neutral.

Important notes for the Eagles:

This is the perfect matchup for PHI as they want to pound the ball, set up the play action and keep the defense guessing while Jalen Hurts picks them apart.  They might not even get to step two in this one as the Eagles are a top-five rushing team going against a bottom-five rushing defense.  Sometimes, it’s just that simple.  The Steelers ran it 43 times last week and while they only averaged 3.3 YPC, they didn’t have Saquon Barkley.  While Barkley is the engine, Hurts is the gas pedal and he has at least one touchdown pass, rushing touchdown and a 100-plus rating in four straight games.  It’s nearly impossible to beat the Eagles when they are playing this well and if WAS can’t stop the run, it’s going to be a very long night.

The QBs: QB play is more art than science and often it’s about riding guys when they get hot.  No one is hotter than Hurts right now as he has eight rushing touchdowns in Philadelphia’s last four games.  For fantasy, he’s racking up points like it’s a carnival game and there is no signs of slowing down.  He only had two rushing TDs in his first five games and it appears the flood games have opened.  Daniels is trending the other way and has gone six games without a top-10 QB finish.  He’s still a must-start in most situations and could get hot in a primetime spot, but this isn’t a great situation vs. a hungry defense.  If he’s not getting it done on the ground, six straight games without a rushing TD, he needs to be prolific through the air.  He’s been just a hair over 200 passing yards in b2b weeks and didn’t throw a TD last week.  If you drafted him as your second QB, I might give him the week off as he doesn’t have the same floor without the rushing upside.

The RBs : We saw Derrick Henry somewhat fall victim to the TNF RB curse as he finally had a non-great game.  It’s going to be hard for Barkley to fall into that trap.  The Eagles play to their strengths and should win this game, that bodes well for Barkley, who simply needs to break a big one to get on the board for fantasy.  Barkley only had 14 rushes last week vs. a broken Cowboys while WAS got bruised 43 times.  This could be the rare TNF game where the RB has the edge.  The key for Barkley like all RBs is TDs and if Hurts is scoring them on the ground, that means Barkley is simply a yards eater.  He only has two rushing TDs in the last six games, but I expect him to get more than a few goal-line chances in this one.  The real story is the return of Robinson Jr. for WAS, as he’s been a TD machine, scoring in five of the seven games he’s played.  If he’s playing in this game, you have to assume he could have gone on Sunday, but this game is far more important.  The Eagles don’t have any holes on defense, so expect WAS to try and run the ball to at least keep the Eagles offense off the field.  If Robinson is 100% healthy, you have to start him, but I expect more quantity over quality.  Austin Ekeler got the promotion the last two weeks and scored twice vs. PIT, which is no easy task, but he’s a fringe flex player at best this week and will have to do his damage in the passing game.  Expecting an Eagles win means plenty of negative game script for Ekeler, so he’s got some upside.

The WRs : AJ Brown is the gift that keeps on giving and he shook off a knee injury to light up the Cowboys last week.  This time it was DeVonta Smith going down with a hamstring injury, but he appears to fine and ready to go.  I’d be worried about starting Smith, but you still have to do it.  Brown and Smith like altering going off and since Brown went off last week, it only makes sense that Smith goes for a ride this game.  That’s not exactly science, so although AJ Brown hasn’t scored in three straight weeks, this is the get-right game as the Commanders are terrible vs. number-one WRs.  I will be backing Brown all the way in this one as newly acquired CB Marshon Lattimore isn’t quite ready to go yet. The Eagles are elite on defense across the board except vs. number-one WRs.  So yes, expect a WR parlay in this one.  Terry McLaurin has only one dud yardage game in the last eight and the one where he only had 19 yards, he also had two TDs.  I wouldn’t back Noah Brown or any other WRs on the Commanders in this game as it’s going to be just the stars.

The TEs : This is not an ideal TE game as both Dallas Goedert and former Eagle Zach Ertz are both a little long in the tooth.  They each only have one TD on the season and although both have a little upside, I would only be starting one if I was desperate.  There are surely better options on the wire.

Best Bet : I’m having a tough time here, Terry McLaurin 60.5 rec yards screams over, but I can’t decide between parlaying it with Saquon Barkley 92.5 rushing yards or AJ Brown 80.5 rec yards 

I crushed my Chase bet last week, that was a lock.  I love trying to follow the game script and it’s I just think the Eagles are playing too well to lose this game.  If Barkley gets 20+ rushes, he is going to get over 100 yards, but I can’t discount how bad the WAS defense is vs. elite WRs.  I will probably do a McLaurin rec yards parlayed with Barkley and a McLaurin rec yards parlayed with Brown.  Honestly, the best bet is just eagles 3.5.  Ride the wave.  If you’re on FD, use the boost to go Eagles 3.5, McLaurin 60.5 rec yards and then pick between Brown or Barkley.  I’m going to lean Brown, but it’s 51-49.

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