Fantasy is never black and white and part of the complexity is the chaos of the actual games and no matter how right our process is, the result is often the final arbiter of right and wrong.  Most teams teams have plenty of weapons, but they don’t always deploy them efficiently and sometimes it takes a trade or an injury for a player to properly bloom into the fantasy star we know him to be. On some teams the hierarchy is simple, aka team with true superstar WRs.  On the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase eats first, Tee Higgins eats second and anything left over goes to Mike Gesicki or Andrei Iosivas.  The Vikings have Justin Jefferson at the top and might alternate between Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson.  We’re not worried about the process or result of those teams.  If you want Chase or Jefferson, it’s going to cost an arm and a leg and probably be worth it.  For this article, let’s take a look at some of the more level playing fields and see if we can determine who has the best value and who might be headed for a breakout/regression.

San Francisco 49ers

ADPs: Jauan Jennings (WR43), Ricky Pearsall (WR45), Brandon Aiyuk (WR40)

This is one of the most difficult skill groups to evaluate as you can’t use last season as a sounding board.  Aiyuk only played five games and only had more than 50 yards in one of them after sitting out most of the summer.  Pearsall was shot which put a damper on his season and he didn’t get on the field until Week 7.  He peak late and finished with over 200 yards in his last two games, so the ceiling is there.  Jennings was the most reliable of the group, but his season was also uneven with five games with 40 or less receiving yards.  He also played 15 games, almost had a 1000 yards (975) and was often the number-one WR on the field.  Jennings graduated from and third-and-Jauan to an every down WR, slowly  building chemistry with Brock Purdy as evidenced by his 31.3% first-read target share  They all have a similar ADP, so draft capital isn’t as relevant, but Aiyuk has the most upside long term as he’s finished as a top-15 WR, Jennings is the most trustworthy as he’s a giant target and has great chemistry with Brock Purdy, but Pearsall has the most mystery and if Aiyuk can’t bounce back, he could be the deep threat in an explosive offense that is primed to explode.

The question is who do you draft first.  Regardless of Aiyuk’s upside, we’ve seen too many times that star players take too long to get back after a serious injury.  His ADP reflects that risk, but why take it when fantasy football is already ripe with the unknown.  So between Jennings and Pearsall, it’s about what you value.  Brock Purdy has been a top-three QB in b2b seasons in yards-per-attempt and with Deebo Samuel shipped out of town, there is a tremendous opportunity, especially in the early portion of the season to make an impact.  We’ve seen that offenses can’t really support three WRs and with George Kittle still a superstar, there might room for only WR to crush his ADP.  It’s the classic floor vs. ceiling as Jennings is going to get the volume, having 10+ targets in five games, but Pearsall has first-round pedigree, an explosive end to the season and a path as the deep threat in a downfield offense.  I will probably draft Jennings first in redraft leagues with 3WR, but Pearsall might be someone I would target in 2WR leagues or Best ball.

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Indianapolis Colts

ADPs: Michael Pittman (WR52), Josh Downs (WR47), Alec Pierce (WR66)

This one again is impossible to rank because of the dichotomy in QB production last season between Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco.  With Daniels Jones as the backup to Richardson, there was will be some continuity regardless of who is throwing the ball.  While the end result is still a mystery, at least the WRs all have their own path.  Pittman is the most reliable with at least 800 receiving yards in each of the last four seasons.  Pittman still profiles as the best WR on the team and the fact that he played through a back injury most of the season is one of the main reasons his production was so muted.  Pitmann has the most name recognition, but he’s no longer on anyone’s top-10 WR lists.

It’s really Downs who emerged as the most reliable WR during the season.  Mostly operating out of the slot, he dominated the middle of the field and finished with the 19th most YAC (422) despite missing three games.  The issue is whether Richardson can become more consistent and not just a deep ball thrower.  Downs has a knack not just getting open or finding holes in the zone, but also making the first defender miss and continuing to get yards.  He has all the tools to make the next leap into a true star and the only thing holding him back is his QB.

Alec Pierce led the league in yards-per-reception with 22.7, but he only had 37, seven of which were TDs.  Pierce had a great season, but the volatility is too extreme, especially with Richardson only completing a dozen passes per-game.  That kind of boom-or-bust is great for Best Ball, but he had nine games with two of fewer catches.  Pittman might have the pedigree and the overall ceiling, but Downs is the WR to target as he’s still getting better and if you believe in Richardson’s ability to make up the gap, you have to correlate that with a Downs breakout season.

Kansas City Chiefs

Rashee Rice (WR25), Xaiver Worthy (WR24) Hollywood Brown (WR72)

The Chiefs will always be a sexy team to draft skill players on because of Pat Mahomes, even if the offense has been trending down for multiple seasons.  They failed to score more than 30 points in every game last season.  The good news is that we could finally see some positive regression in terms of WRs as TE Travis Kelce is no longer a core regular season piece and the running game stalled out last season.  The Chiefs were 29th in WR targets last season, targeting WRs on only 50% of the passing plays.  A lot of that had to do with Rice getting hurt in Week 3 and Hollywood Brown missing most of the season, but now with Rice returning, Worthy looking like a star and a full season of Brown, expectations are once again sky-high.

The battle seems to be between Rice and Worthy as both excel in the quick-hitting, pre-motion offense.  Rice only played three games, but he was top-four in YAC in two of them, while Worthy finished 12th as a rookie.  With Kelce still operating over the middle, there won’t be room for three WRs to operate in the flats or over the middle.  Worthy’s speed is the true separator and he showed it with two long TDs in the Super Bowl, but he only had a 10.8 yards-per-catch last season.  There can only be one.  Rice looked like a true superstar in his three games, going over 100 yards in two and 75 in the third, but if we’ve learned anything it’s not to trust football players to hit the ground running after a major injury.  Rice has all the upside if he resumes his role as alpha target hog, but Worthy established a solid floor last season, with at least five receptions in the last five games.  Speed kills and that gives him a massive ceiling as well along with the fact that Chiefs don’t mind using him as a runner, he had at least two designed runs in each of the last three games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ADPs : Mike Evans (WR14), Chris Godwin (WR29), Jalen McMillian (WR41)

This is clearest WR room on paper as Mike Evans is the most reliable fantasy stud in history and Chris Godwin may or may not be ready for Week 1, but don’t sleep on Jalen McMillian finishing as the best WR on this team.  The Bucs might be the best team to invest fantasy assets in as they ranked third in scoring (29.5 pionts-per-game) and were top-five in fantasy points for QBs, RBs and WRs.  Baker Mayfield has this offense humming all season despite missing a chunk of games from Evans and every game after Week 7 for Godwin.

The only problem is that Evans is right at the WR age cliff (31) and while he didn’t look a diminished version of himself, the decline comes fast and steep for everyone.  Godwin has been in-and-out of lineups for multiple seasons now and while he did look unbelievable in his seven games, this final ankle injury could be the tipping point.  Evans’ ADP is going to be steep and Godwin’s will depend on how good he looks in the preseason, but McMillian is the lion in waiting.  He only played 13 games and had 461 yards on 37 receptions, but he followed the traditional path of rookies which is to peak late.  He had at least 50 yards in each of his last six games and five grabs in five of the six.  He also scored in each of those games and if Evans or Godwin miss a beat, he will grab the mantle.  McMillian is going to be on my short-list of favorite targets this season.  He had a meager 10.3% TS and a healthy 12.7 YPC, the only thing that kept his overall stats down was his longest reception was only 33 yards.  The Tampa offense is explosive and there is no reason that number won’t double next season.  McMillian has everything going for him and just needs a little luck to be the breakout player of the season.

Green Bay Packers

ADPs:  Jayden Reed (WR33), Christian Watson (WR101), Romeo Doubs (WR62), Dontayvion Wicks (WR75

The Packers were supposed to be led by a deep, young and talented WR core that surprised everyone two seasons ago, but instead they stalled out and the passing game took a step backwards.  Jayden Reed stormed out of the gates and had the best season, but he only had one game after the Week 10 bye with more than 50 yards.  He was unstartable over the back half of the season.  Christian Watson looked the part of the WR1, averaging 21.4 YPR, but he only had 29 grabs and tore his ACL putting this next season in jeopardy.  Romeo Doubs was the most consistent by default, but he he only had two weeks all season where he scored. This resulted in Jordan Love having a classic regression season, seeing his passing numbers drop by nearly 800 yards and seven TDs.  There is still plenty of optimism, but GMs who went on the splash the pot approach with the Packers came out empty handed.

All that matters is the future and the Packers are primed for a bounce back as they are still young and talented.  Reed is the clear-cut stud in the offense and we just have to ignore the last seven games.  Reed was third in the league in with receptions 30+ yards (11), which is astonishing considering he only had 55 grabs.  Everyone is going to remember Reed having 52 yards over a five-game stretch, but conveinently forget the two games he had 130+ yards over the first four of the season.  When this offense is clicking, Reed is a star, it’s the lack of consistency which gives me pause.  Depth is a strength in real football, but can be a weakness in fantasy and that problem should be resolved with Watson being out.  Reed is the clear WR1 and the deep-threat, Doubs will be operate in the flats and Wicks will be the slot receiver.  Sometimes an established hierarchy is more important than depth and that means Wicks is the sneaky fantasy asset that could have a blow up season.  He had at least five grabs in six of the last eight games and is Love’s favorite WR target over the middle of the field.  All three are worth drafting because either one could still level up, but it probably goes Reed, Wicks, Doubs.

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