Round One: FIGHT! Don’t forget to read Larry Vannozzi’s weekly weather report to make sure you’re prepared for last minute alerts about mother nature’s plans in NFL cities across the country. Also, check out Brian Shade’s projection model to help you predict and prepare for this week’s slate of fantasy football!

First, a few housekeeping notes..

Q’s Quick Pick Total Record: 39-45, -11.72u

Week 1: 3-12, -8.96u; Week 2: 6-5, +0.3u; Week 3: 7-7, +0.88u; Week 4: 8-5, +1.6u; Week 5: 5-6, -4.65u; Weeks 6-8: N/A; Week 9: 4-4, -1.57u; Week 10: 6-6, +0.68

Picks: Odds are from DraftKings. Picks are for entertainment purposes only. Check out the Wager Pass for legit gambling talk.

Start Sit Decisions: Start your studs. Otherwise, these are yours and yours alone to make. Hopefully my previews help provide context to assist you in making an informed, matchup winning decision.

Scoring and League Format: The main focus is 1QB leagues, but I do make superflex references at times. The assumption is most folks play in 12 team leagues, and I use half point PPR rankings and stats when sifting through the madness. I don’t usually find a huge difference between half and full point PPR, but your volume receivers and tight ends receive a slight bump moving from half to full. Standard leagues could be a bit different, so be sure to hop into our discord or join one of our live shows either on Thursday’s at 5pm or Sunday’s at 10:30am to have your questioned answered in real time.

Week 14 Positional Rankings: QB’s courtesy of Jon Mosales, RB’s courtesy of Brandon Furtado, WR’s courtesy of Robert Szolosi, TE’s courtesy of Max Silveira, and DST’s courtesy of Brandon Furtado

 

Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns

Location: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH

Date: December 15, 2024 at 1:00p

Pick: 

The Quarterbacks: (KC) Outside of two top five finished this season, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been able to break into the top ten. His low point is QB20, so while he hasn’t provided a high ceiling much this season, he’s been a stable presence in your lineup. Cleveland has been getting kinder and kinder to fantasy options as the season has progressed. Their defensive home road splits favor them playing at home. They’ve allowed over 400 less passing yards, seven less passing touchdowns, and have nearly double the amount of sacks when playing in Ohio. His firm QB2 range has him perfect for super flex leagues, and fine for 1QB formats. He’s not a must start though, so there’s a non zero chance you may have a better option under center.. (CLE) Jameis Winston should have started for the Browns from the jump, and I hope he gets a chance to start next season somewhere. He continues to be good to great for fantasy, mixing in big time touchdown passes with untimely interceptions that sometimes come in bunches. Throwing for 395 and and 497 yards will help overcome the picks though. I’m thinking Jameis can be trusted as a top 18 quarterback this week, which would have been higher if he performed at home like he does on the road. Two of his three top ten finishes came away from Cleveland. The Chiefs, however, have allowed 260 or more passing yards in three of their last four, including a 340 yard performance by Aidan O’Connell. The Chiefs defense can be beaten, and Winston is the type of QB who can, and will, sling it against anyone.

The Running Backs: (KC) Isaiah Pacheco saw his snap count rise from 35% to 46%, coinciding with his carry count double from 7 to 14. Both should continue to rise as he gets further from that gruesome leg fracture. Just like the Browns pass defense, their run stopping is much better when they play at Huntington Bank. Pacheco is a flex worthy player with the upside to get back into the top 15 running back discussion. I think it’s bound to happen, it’s just a matter of when. Kareem Hunt, on the other  hand, is looking like he’s seen his final fantasy relevant game of the year, and maybe of his career. As Pacheco has risen again, Hunt has fallen back into irrelevancy. He may be worthwhile to hang onto as a handcuff, because when fully acclimated as the top back, he was a steady RB2 with some RB1 upside.. (CLE) Nick Chubb has been fine for Cleveland, but not that great for fantasy. It;s not unexpected, as the 28 year old continues to make progress on the field after tearing multiple ligaments in his knee a season ago. I don’t think him, or Jerome Ford for that matter, will be able to have much more than low end RB3 value this week.

The Wide Receivers: (KC) I think we were all excited after DeAndre Hopkins was traded to Kansas City and we got a WR4 week the second game they played together. That’s been the high so far with Dhop settling in as a WR3. Playing with Mahomes always boosts your upside, and that’s especially true with Xavier Worthy. He’s been less than impressive, finishing inside the top twenty just twice since week two’s top five performance on an unsustainable two touchdowns on five touches. If you’re a wild card team who snuck in and you’re playing the league juggernaut, sure, take all the upside you can get. Though, there hasn’t been a ton of that even. He’s a scary fantasy player and I don’t know that I take the chance unless absolutely necessary. Sigh.. (CLE) Cedric Tillman (concussion) remains out, allowing Jerry Jeudy to continue to operate as the uncontested WR1. Jeudy has scored double digit points every week since week 8. He’s found some upside, finishing as the WR4 and WR1 in weeks 11 and 13 respectively. His value has mostly been a WR2/3, and he should be at least that this week even against a tough defense. Elijah Moore has been a nice surprise, but doesn’t seem to have that game breaking upside Jeudy has shown with recently. He teeters from WR2/3 to irrelevant, making him a risky play in round one of the playoffs.

The Tight Ends: (KC) Travis Kelce and his roller coaster season can be broken down into three segments. Weeks 1-3 he averaged 3.3 points per game. Weeks 4-10, 13.2 points. Then, the most recent four weeks he averaged 7.1. The thing about roller coasters is they’re unpredictable, whipping left and right, loop-dee-looping everywhere. Noah Gray has been that loose part that closes down the ride for periods of time He’s hit double digits just twice this year for two top five tight end finishes, but has otherwise been just annoying enough to lower Kelce’s ceiling. I imagine you’re probably playing Kelce, and Gray is a dart throw deep league prayer if you’re in that position.. (CLE) Without logging any practice activity this week, it’s hard to believe David Njoku (hamstring) will play, despite him saying he hopes to do just that. It’s a shame., because the Chiefs have been bookmarked as a team to attack with the tight end position. If Njoku does play, I will put him in my lineup, especially seeing 30 targets over the past two weeks. Jordan Akins would see a bump in value if he draws the start. He wouldn’t be a great option, but he would be an option purely because of the matchup.

 

Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN

Date: December 15, 2024 at 1:00p

Pick: Tony Pollard UNDER Carries

The Quarterbacks: (CIN) Joe Burrow has been an elite QB all season. He’s finished worse than QB16 just twice, and inside the top five five times. Just keep starting him. (TEN) Just when I was backing Will Levis again, he came back to earth with a measly seven points. The Bengals defense is bad, but the Titans are also bad. The Bengals have allowed the fourth most points per game (27.7) and are one of just five teams to allow more than 350 points this season. The matchup keeps Levis as a decent streaming option though having thrown for at least 200 yards or two touchdowns in four of the last five.

The Running Backs: (CIN) Chase Brown continues to get over 90% of the running back touches. Despite losing a handful of carries over the past week or two to Khalil Herbert, there has been no loss in value on Brown’s part. The Bengals know who their best player in the backfield is, and he’s a must start.. (TEN) Tony Pollard has been largely game script dependent. Six of his eight top 24 performances have come in games that were decided by seven points or less. In all seven games he got 17 or more carries, he was an RB2 or better. Tyjae Spears getting up to ten carries/targets a game limits what would otherwise be a bell cow role, but doesn’t have any standalone value. Pollard is a risk/reward RB2 depending on what you think the game script might be.

The Wide Receivers: (CIN) Ja’Marr Chase is an animal, finishing as a top 12 receiver in eight of the last eleven weeks, including three WR1 finishes and two others inside the top five. Start your studs. Does this apply to Tee Higgins? I’d like to say so, I’d like to believe so, but I don’t really know if it does. He’s someone you’re likely starting no matter what. The Titans have been good at defending receivers according to the fantasy numbers, and they haven’t allowed a 100 yard receiver since mid-October. I’m good starting Higgins as a WR2/3 because of the offense he plays in and his three top eight finishes so far, but three outside the top 40 is concerning.. (TEN) I continue to support Calvin Ridley and I don’t really know why. He hasn’t been good for fantasy. Lately though, he hasn’t been bad either. Realistically, he’s a low end flex play. If you want to play the touchdown game with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine that’s fine. He’s been scoring a lot of them. It’s just a dangerous proposition when you’re relying on the most difficult variable (touchdowns) to be sustained on low volume.

The Tight Ends: (CIN) Mike Gesicki has been a spike week player (hello best ball bros and bro-ettes) with two top five states and just four inside the top 16. With a healthy offensive unit, Gesicki is likely to find himself lower on the totem pole than higher and someone I’d probably shy away from.. (TEN) Chig Okonkwo hasn’t provided fantasy value to date, so let’s not get silly now.

 

Matchup: Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints

Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Date: December 15, 2024 at 1:00p

Pick: 

The Quarterbacks: (WSH) Jayden Daniels has been great his rookie season, thriving off of a lot of matchups against bad defenses. No knock on his game, just an observation. The Saints are trending downward after trading their best corner, so Daniels should have another nice opportunity for a solid stat line. Playing in New Orleans is difficult, and the Saints defense does have some pieces still. I don’t think this is a slam dunk spot for Daniels, but one he can, and maybe should, be able to overcome. (NO) Derek Carr (concussion/hand) has cost several people their jobs in New Orleans and is a large part of the reason this team continues to remain towards the bottom of the standings. With his status in serious doubt though, second year pro Jake Haener will make his first NFL start. I’m suspecting former teammate Washington Cornerback Marshawn Lattimore is going to want to have an impressive day against his former squad, and Haener’s presence in the starting lineup makes it that much easier to do. I’m not starting him anywhere.

The Running Backs: (WSH) Brian Robinson is having an unspectacular, yet useful season, He has five top 14 finishes and just one true bust week. He’s as safe as you can get in fantasy for running backs, providing mid to low end RB2 at worst more times than not. Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez will fight for time behind Robinson, but neither are truly on the radar.. (NO) Realistically speaking, there aren’t many folks you should trust more than Alvin Kamara to man the RB1 spot in your lineup. He’s scored at least 9.6 points all but once, and should continue to see monster volume, having over 20 opportunities per game. He’s been a low key rock for lineups all season long.

The Wide Receivers: (WSH) It’s Terry McLaurin or bust in this receiver room. He’s finished as the WR27 or better in every game except three. He’s a locked and loaded fantasy starter no matter how you slice it. The ceiling is there with two top five performances, and the floor is there as we mentioned first. He’s the meat and potatoes, the guy who fills in the cracks, consistently being someone you can rely on for a positive week.. (NO) The Marquez Valdez-Scantling shine has worn off despite seeing his most targets on the year last week with seven. It’s tough to trust him, or anyone, with Haener under center.

The Tight Ends: (WSH) Three straight TE1 finishes has Zach Ertz back on the fantasy radar after a short hiatus. I have no issue trusting him as another safe option a la McLaurin. He won’t kill your chances of moving on, and that’s great to hear from the tight end position. Six targets in his last four games, and five of the last six, boost his resume for those of you without a top end option.. (NO) By golly Juwan Johnson did it again. He was the TE3 last week after putting up 4/50/1. I doubt it happens again.

 

Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants

Location: Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Date: Sunday, December 15, 2024 at 1:00pm

Q’s Quick Pick: Derrick Henry OVER Rushing Yards

The Quarterbacks: (BAL) Lamar Jackson continues to be a stud. Just start him. The Giants have given up on the year and should roll over, allowing Jackson to do as he does.. (NYG) Drew Lock (heel/elbow) is listed as doubtful, meaning we will see more Tommy DeVito. That’s cool and all, but I’ll stop right here because there’s not really any viability.

The Running Backs: (BAL) Oh my goodness, Derrick Henry is going to have a field day. The Giants were bad at stopping the run with Dexter Lawrence (elbow). It’s going to get scary in New Jersey when big ole #22 hits the hole full speed ahead. Business decisions by Giants defenders will be made.. (NYG) Tyrone Tracy continues to be a solid play, but has been trending down recently since busting onto the scene. The total downtrend of the offense, from QB play to OL performance, to even Tracy not always at his best. The elite Ravens run defenses will pose a challenge. He’s scored in five of eight games he’s been the starter for, so that’s a plus. Again, this is a terribly difficult matchup though. Flex play is probably his ceiling. Devin Singletary has no real standalone value unless Tracy gets himself back in the doghouse of the medical tent.

The Wide Receivers: (BAL) I like Zay Flowers to have a great week if the offense doesn’t just run through Henry all day. Seeing six targets in six straight games is a positive for this offense, and having a much improved passer in Jackson ensures he can make the most of those opportunities. He could find himself in the top 18 should be get going early in the contest. Rashod Bateman is who he is, just slightly more consistent this season than years past He just needs one play, and I think he gets it. He’s someone who realistically tops out inside the top 36.. (NYG) Malik Nabers played admirably through an injury last weekend and faces a bad pass defense. If only he had an average quarterback it would be lights out. Unfortunately, Tommy Cutlets lowers him from a must start to a flex play. Wan’Dale Robinson is a low end option if you’re in a tough spot in deeper PPR leagues, but someone you’d hate to have to start.

The Tight Ends: (BAL) This is the one position the Giants have been good at defending, but Mark Andrews is one of the games very best. Keep rolling him out as a TE1 option like he’s been six of the last eight games.. (NYG) Continue stashing Theo Johnson in dynasty, but hold off in your playoff matchups from starting him.

 

Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Date: Sunday, December 15, 2024 at 1:00pm

Q’s Quick Pick: Bryce Young 2+ Touchdowns

The Quarterbacks: (DAL) Cooper Rush wasn’t all bad last week despite completing just over 50% of his passes. He threw for two touchdowns and snuck into the top 15 at the position. The Panthers are a good chance for him to continue his relatively low level success. With all the bye weeks over with, I don’t think he’s going to finish that high again, but maybe he’ll be a low end QB2, providing some value in superflex leagues.. (CAR) Bryce Young’s continued improvement has been good for himself and the offensive pieces around him. The Dallas defense, outside its pass rush (aka EDGE Micah Parsons), isn’t very good. He hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, but Dallas’s pass defense isn’t far behind Carolina’s, as they’ve allowed 20 passing touchdowns. I like Young as a relatively solid QB2.

The Running Backs: (DAL) Rico Dowdle has been a nice story in an otherwise dismal season for “America’s Team.” Three straight weeks of 20+ touches and facing the league leader in rushing yards by 300 yards will push Dowdle into a must-start position in my eyes, especially without any real competition for touches. Head coach Mike McCarthy said they needed to get Dowdle more involved, and that they did.. (CAR) Jonathan Brooks (right knee) re-tore the same ACL he just made his comeback from. It’s another devastating blow early in his career that may ultimately limit his upside in the future. However, Chuba Hubbard vaults into top 10 territory once again and is a must start play throughout the remainder of the year.

The Wide Receivers: (DAL) Ceedee Lamb is talented enough to perform well even with a low end backup QB, but his ceiling is gone. The Panthers offer a friendly match up to open up the postseason. I’m not going to be caught with him on my bench this weekend. Brandin Cooks has scored a touchdown in two straight weeks. Will he make it three? The Panthers are tied for the second most passing touchdowns allowed (24), so the odds are more in Cooks favor than ever (not factual statistical advice). I think there are worse options, but there are also certainly better options. Maybe if you’re in a two flex league, or a league that’s really WR heavy, you can find a spot for him. No pressure to force him in, though.. (CAR) Adam Thielen has once again become ole reliable and a surprise fantasy goldmine. Double digit targets in back to back weeks are nice, and he should continue to operate as the first look for Young on more plays than not. He’s an excellent example of the meat and potatoes I continue to talk about. While involved more now than ever, Xavier Legette has faded quickly the last few weeks after providing some midseason hope he could turn into the guy the pass offense runs through. tough to overlook eight targets in back to back weeks, but its tougher for me to insert him into my lineup in a win or go home situation.

The Tight Ends: (DAL) Jake Ferguson really lost almost all of his value, nice Dak went out for the year. He has one top ten finish since week six, and while the Panthers are an easy matchup for all those involved, I just don’t know that I trust him over a dozen other players this week.. (CAR) After a midseason spike in usage, Ja’Tavion Sanders has faded from fantasy relevance right now.

 

Matchup: New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars

Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

Date: Sunday, December 15, 2024 at 1:00p

Q’s Quick Pick: Wilson OVER Receptions

The Quarterbacks: (NYJ) Aaron Rodgers snapped a three game skid last week and found his way into the back end of QB1 territory. The Jaguars are a bad defense in a bad way right now, but that doesn’t just guarantee success. Rodgers has let good opportunities slip away in the past. I can’t imagine playing him outside of superflex leagues as a pure upside play based on the matchup.. (JAX) I’m not really interested in Mac Jones or a lot of this offense, though some value can be had. I just don’t think it’ll be the quarterback.

The Running Backs: (NYJ) Breece Hall (knee) expects to play Sunday, and it would be nice to have him fully healthy for the first round of the playoffs. He was able to practice fully on Friday, so that’s good, but doesn’t guarantee he’ll play. I think you have to start him if he plays. Braelon Allen bumps back down to handcuff territory. Halls lingering injury issues necessitates him being rostered everywhere, though.. (JAX) Travis Etienne continues his low profile season. Hopefully you’ve made other plans earlier in the year so you don’t have to keep rolling him our there hoping for last years form. Tank Bigsby is only truly trustworthy when Etienne misses time and he’s the clear cut workhorse. That isn’t happening this week barring a surprise, so best let him sit this one out.

The Wide Receivers: (NYJ) It’s been up and down for Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson since the formers arrival. Both have room to eat this week, but I have to continue to give the nod to Adams because of all that history in Green Bay we’ve talked about for weeks now. Both are WR2 worthy options this week though, with Wilson having the talent to finish ahead of Adams without it being a surprise.. (JAX) Brian Thomas may have hit a rookie wall, or it may just be the Mac Jones effect, but just two of his last seven games have resulted in top 15 performances. It’s been a disappointing late season development. I understand if his ceiling is too much to ignore, but he’s just a flex option in my eyes going against the Jets talented secondary who can focus in on him from the jump with no one to threaten them elsewhere.

The Tight Ends: (NYJ) Tyler Conklin is a low end option who is largely avoidable. We can’t figure out who to start  between the top two receivers, let’s not throw another wrench in the pile.. (JAX) Evan Engram (shoulder) has his season ended when he was put on IR earlier this week. All eyes are on Brenton Strange, the second year pro who showed some pop early in the season when Engram missed time. I subscribed to the QB2 enhances the backup players due to practicing with them, so keen an eye on Strange.

 

Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Date: Sunday, December 15, 2024 at 1:00p

Q’s Quick Pick

The Quarterbacks: (MIA) Tua Tagovailoa is on a heater, finishing inside the top ten four straight weeks, including two inside the top 5. Houston is a top ten matchup, so there’s no reason not to stay in the flames with Tua here.. (HOU) On the other end of the spectrum, the Dolphins are a bottom tier matchup for CJ Stroud to be facing this week. Stroud hasn’t finished as a top twelve QB in eight of the last nine, but some of his better performances have come at home. He’s a middling QB2 at best this week.

The Running Backs: (MIA) De’Von Achane is another Dolphin on a hot streak, finishing as a top 13 running back in six of the last seven. Don’t think about benching him in crunch time.. (HOU) Another player who must remain in your lineup is Joe Mixon,  who has also finished as a top 13 option or better in six of his last seven games. What a great running back matchup we get this week here.

The Wide Receivers: (MIA) Tyreek Hill had that blowup game last week I was talking about. Can he do it again? I won’t doubt him, especially against a poor Texans secondary. Hill has scored in four of his last five games, but has just five on the year, which would be a career low (currently at six his rookie season). Look for some more positive touchdown regression to come. Jaylen Waddle is working his way back into the good graces of fantasy managers, seeing 9 and 12 targets in two of the last three weeks. There should be a couple players who take advantage if we think Tua continues to perform well. Waddle is a fringe WR2 for me this week.. (HOU) Nico Collins emergence as a premier receiver in this league has been fun to watch, especially for fantasy managers who get to start him week in and week out, even if the Dolphins are one of the best teams at limiting WR production. Tank Dell, even with Stefon Diggs (knee) long on IR, has not been able to recapture his rookie season success. He’s been largely unstartable, and it looks likely that’ll remain true this week.

The Tight Ends: (MIA) Jonnu Smith has enjoyed a nice run, and barely kept it going last week getting all of his production in overtime. The Texans are good at defending tight ends, but Smith’s upside in this offense is too hard to ignore. He’s a top option this week, but could bottom out finally.. (HOU) Dalton Schultz has been relatively silent this year and will likely continue to remain so.

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