Mostradomus in Review for Week 7

  • Every week I will do a quick drive thru of the all the games and cover the relevant fantasy points.  I will look at things that might be fluky or here to stay and try and point everyone in the right direction for the future.  We never want to overreact to a small-sample size, but sometimes getting in too early is still better than missing the boat entirely.

     

    Broncos 33 – Saints 10

    The Broncos might be for the real or the Saints really are frauds.  This game was a full white flag raise by NO as they were terrible across the board.  Sure, they are banged up and missing their two starting WRs, QB and TE, but this was still an embarrassing at home.  The backup QB, Spencer Rattler also got hurt, paving the way for Jake Haener, who scored the only passing TD for the Saints in only four attempts in garbage time.  Alvin Kamara was game scripted out and while he did have six grabs, they were only for 14 yards.  This team is now a stayaway for fantasy purposes minus Kamara and hopefully Chris Olave when he returns, but who will be throwing him the ball.  The Broncos are on the other end of the spectrum as Bo Nix is trending up and is running the ball as well as any QB in the league right now.  Yes, that’s correct as he torched the Saints for 75 yards.  Javonte Williams finally looked like a RB1, but let’s chalk most of this up to the Saints mailing it in from the jump.  Nix is a solid QB2 for Superflex with his built-in floor and while he didn’t have any TDs in this one, he’s been good for two a game recently.  Williams will have to prove it again in a matchup that isn’t so juicy, but 6.3 YPC and two TDs is no joke.  Courtland Sutton might not be a drop yet, but you can’t play him in almost any format.

    Pickup of the game: WR Bub Means  – Priority Minimum

     

    Jaguars 32 – Patriots 16

    What a difference a week can make.  The Jags were fresh off getting blown out by the Bears in London, only to do the same to the Pats a game later.  The Jags are still a mess, especially in the secondary, but the offense is coming along and Tank Bigsby instead of Travis Etienne might be enough to tip the scales.  Bigsby has 19 red zone rushes on the season to 13 for Etienne.  The Jags have four credible receiving threats, but the hierarchy goes Evan Engram, Brian Thomas Jr. in a tie for first and Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk in the rear.  Engram and BTJ are must-starts, while Davis and Kirk are just stashes for now.  Bigsby is on the verge of breaking out and could be an RB1 the rest of the season if the Jags know what is good for them.  Drake Maye looks legit and while anyone can throw for 275 on the Jags, he still did so without any INTs and is capable of hitting receivers over the top of the defense.  DeMario Douglas was on his way to a big game, but was apparently sick before the game, a fact that was not revealed before kickoff.  Hunter Henry is a top-five TE with this new offense and it’s clear Maye loves hitting him over the middle.  The running game is the problem as both Rhamdonre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson were useless.  The o-line is brutal, but the Pats don’t want Maye slinging the ball 35 times a game, so Stevenson should be a safe play as long as he is finally healthy.

    Pickup of the game – TE Hunter Henry – Priority High

     

    Bills 34 – Titans 10

    This game was all too obvious, possibly less so after Mason Rudolph was ruled in over Will Levis, but the Bills own the Titans.  Josh Allen was letting it fly and looked the QB1 again with 323 yards and two TDs, but the rushing TDs seem  to be absent this season.  Buffalo is third in EPA per play and third in drop back EPA and they have the sixth highest rate of offensive drives ending in a score.  James Cook scored, but didn’t look great and Ray Davis is coming.  He’s a must-stash and if Cook gets hurt again, he could swing leagues.  He averaged 8.2 YPC, while Cook had a measly 2.7.  It didn’t take Amari Cooper long to understand the new system, as he went off for 66 and a TD.  He’s got WR1 upside the rest of the season.  Watch out.  Everyone got a taste in this game and four Bills had over 50 yards receiving.  The Bills have steadied the ship and are about to go on a tear.  The Titans are headed in the opposite direction and the lone bright spot is Tony Pollard who is back to being elite.  DeAndre Hopkins looks semi-washed and Calvin Ridley just isn’t very good and when you throw in a below-average QB, this offense is bottom-five going forward.  Abandon ship.

    Pickup of the game – RB Ray Davis – Priority High

     

    Packers 24 – Texans 22

    This was supposed to be a shootout, but pivoted to a ground-and-pound as the Texans had nearly twice as many rushing yards as passing yards.  Is that a good thing?  This was the rare CJ Stroud letdown game and either he really misses Nico Collins or the Packers’ secondary is legit.  Probably a bit of both.  The Texans are now 19th in EPA per play and the early down play calling is killing them.  Joe Mixon is going to be a beast as long as he can stay healthy because the Texans love smashmouth football.  Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell were afterthoughts which is surprising, but this game is hopefully more a one-off than anything.  Jordan Love outplayed Stroud and they are neck and neck in terms of franchise talent.  Love had two INTs which isn’t great, but the three TDs make up for it.  He leads the NFL with an 8.4 percent touchdown rate. Love over his past two games has seven touchdown tosses, good for a 10.8 percent touchdown rate.  The WR room continues to be confusing as I assumed Jayden Reed had made the leap, but he only had two receptions for 10 yards and it was Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks who saw 16 of the 33 targets.  I would have bet a lot that it would have been Reed and Christian Watson in this game.  You can still trust Reed, but after that it’s a coin flip.  Josh Jacobs got his first career receiving TD and he’s doing a lot without that much usage, which is great for his long term productivity.

    Pickup of the Game – WR Dontayvion Wicks– Priority Med

     

    Eagles 28 – Giants 3

    This was a classic Saquon Barkley revenge game and it should have been more obvious from the jump.  The Giants had no answers for Barkley or the PHI d-line which demolished Daniel Jones all game.  The Eagles are back on track and ready to roll and while Jalen Hurts only had 114 passing yards, he only attempted 14 passes.  It won’t always be this easy, but DeVonta Smith got scripted right out of this game.  Call that a fluke.  AJ Brown is back to a top-five WR and he seems to be a lock for a big play every game.  The Giants are broken and even the return of Malik Nabers couldn’t alleviate the pain.  Jones got benched for Drew Lock and lets see if that is a theme that will carry over into Week 8.  Neither has any fantasy appeal, but one might be better at supporting the NYG pass-catchers.  Tyrone Tracy never had a chance to ramp up, but he’s still got big-game potential as long as the Giants can stay in games.  Wan’Dale Robinson is a PPR monster, but he’s not getting explosive plays or goal-line targets.

    Pickup of the game – None

     

    Lions 31 – Vikings 29

    This game was a yo-yo as it appeared each team had it sewn it up during multiple points.  Justin Jefferson looked unstoppable, but then didn’t have another catch after his TD in the third quarter.  Aaron Jones was questionable and wasn’t on my radar for fantasy this week, but he made me look the fool with an early 34-yard TD scamper.  He looks fine.  Sam Darnold wasn’t great, but did enough to keep his value afloat.  Jordan Addison caught a bomb and he’s a solid WR2, but with TJ Hockenson returning, somebody is going to lose some touches and my bet is it won’t be JJ.  Ty Chandler is back to a stash.  The Lions are deep and somehow haven’t really suffered any injuries on offense this season.  David Montgomery got hurt, left and then came, only to almost lose the game on a late-game fumble.  Amon-Ra St. Brown is back and I may have overreacted to his early season woes.  Jahmyr Gibbs looked like the best RB in the league in the open field, but they are still a dynamic duo.  Sam LaPorta can’t catch a break and isn’t going to be involved in the offense unless somebody gets hurt.  Jameson Williams had the rare off game and with so many weapons, somebody is going to be invisible each week.  Williams will now be suspended for two games and I’m banking/praying it opens things back up LaPorta.

    Pickup of the game –WR Jalen Nailor  – Priority Low

     

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